A Lightbulb on 2/3 the Pot

[EasyT]

The standard play which I think has been discussed (and that I try to follow) is to raise 3-6x the big blind with a raising hand in order to isolate to 1-2 opponents. Then typically bet 2/3 the pot on the flop if it's checked to me whether I hit or not.

Example: (NL$25, .10/.25 = blinds)
I'm in late position with QQ.
3 limpers in front with button and blinds behind me.
Bet 5x ($1.25).
Button calls, blinds fold, one EP calls.
Flop: K 9 3.
EP checks.
I bet 2/3 (pot is $4.6, so $3).

Obviously you want them to give you credit for AA, KK or AK and fold if they have worse. 2/3-the-pot is enough for them to have poor odds to chase a draw. But is not too much that you have to take it down every time.

This is my realization: If I bet 2/3 the pot in this situation, I can still lose the pot 1 time in 3 and be even (assuming I'm raised and fold right there)or EV+ (if I'm just called and he is on a draw or I catch the Q). This seems simple enough now that I have given it some thought. But until now I was only listening to what I was told, and had not worked it through concretely in my head.

Often times I'll get wishy-washy with the math, or just bet $1.00 into a $1.35 pot because it's easier to type than $0.90. This seems insignificant, I know. A damn dime, who cares, right? But now that $1 bet has to take it down 3 times out of 4 over the long haul to stay even.

The $ difference my be small, but if you're betting 3/4 of the pot and wining with that bet 2 times out of 3, you're losing money.

(I'm sorry if this belongs in The Beginner's Circle. It's not high concept or anything, just an idea that drifted through my head as I fell asleep last night. )

[ChezJ]

the initial raise is to isolate, meaning get heads up with one, and only one, opponent.

your bet on the flop is a bet that your heads up opponent completely missed the flop, which will occur about 2/3 of the time.

if you're betting into two opponents, the math is quite different, and the risk is higher, because the chances that both of them missed the flop are a lot lower.

ChezJ

[smcicr]

ok, but what happens if the person / people you're playing have no concept of pot odds and / or don't do the maths as precisely... what if those people take your properly calculated bet as a sign of weakness and choose to play their hand differently than they would have done if you'd bet $1 and not 90c? ie: they may come back over the top of you etc

i can see this happening but maybe it's just what $25NL does to you

[Element187]

agreed the players at that level even see a pot sized bet as weak, they dont pay attention to the size of the pot.

[EasyT]

I agree that the RESULT of a 2/3 bet at my level can be hit or miss.

But from my end, if I take down the pot 2 times out of 3 with a 2/3 bet, that is my goal. I'm not putting any more money into a pot usually if I have QQ and the board has a K or A.

I also understand that I sound like a robot in this post--trying to bet exactly 2/3 and making 'standard' plays. It's never that simple, and play would depend on my read of the table and the players.

I appreciate your comments.

I think that my point was that I sometimes will bet 3/4 or even the full pot with less than top pair to try to take it down. Sometimes this is the 'right' move anyway, but this post was my realization that the bigger the bet, the more successful you have to be.

If you bet 3/4 of the pot and get called 50% of the time, you're going to HAVE to outplay your opponent on the turn and river or accept that you're losing money.

If you're following up a preflop raise with a flop bet, AND know that you'll have to check/fold if you're called (and don't improve), consider betting 2/3 the pot, as this seems to be the EV move in the long run.