Quote Originally Posted by Silly String
Thanks Noble that filter is a good idea.
Yah thanks Noble, I'll check this later too.

An extension to this comment: People seem to be carried away with the idea that they are pretty sure they are ahead, but that if they make a reasonable bet that they will be only called by better.

-The problem is they are stuck in the land where a reasonable bet must be 2/3 pot or 3/4 pot as if this is a rule or something. It's NOT a rule. We could definitely bet much smaller.

Same example as before, $2/4, MP vs Hero on Btn with :Jd: :Td:

MP raises to $12
Hero calls

Flop: :Qh: :Ts: Pot ($30)
MP bets $22
Hero calls
Turn: Pot ($74)
MP checks
Hero checks
River: Pot ($74)
MP checks
Hero bets $20

assumptions:
-villain will bet all Qx+ on flop and turn
-villain will bet JJ,ATs a reasonable % of time on turn and c/c rest
-villain bets KJ on turn 70% and c/c rest
-villain bets AJ/AK 40% and c/c some % and c/f rest
-villain checks all other pairs, some c/c and some c/f
-villain shuts down air

-After the turn goes check check, we discount all Qx+ so
-our river bet value towns ourselves vs JJ/ATs the times he doesn't double barrel them (4.5 combos) and KTs (3 combos) - so we LOSE to 7.5 combos (assume he will call with all given the price)

gets to river with:
-60% of AJ/AK get there without betting the turn AJ (~7 combos) / AK (~10 combos)
-combos of 9Ts and 8Ts (~6 combos)
-combos of 67s/78s (~8 combos)
-combos of 88/99 (~12 combos)
-combos other pairs/air (>40ish combos)
-combos of KJ that ck turn (~4 combos)

-If he calls with 75% of Tx combos (~5 combos), stubborn calls with 20% of 7x,88/99 and AK then thats (~6 combos) which is already 11 combos > 7.5 combos that beat us
-he will also c/r a non-zero % of time as a bluff with KJ/AJ and other air given our small inducing bet
-betting $20 with JT here is +EV and we could probably even bet more thinly, and its just a matter of what size is best or better

Sorry about the math combos rant!