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    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-sto...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
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    I don't want to sound like a hair-splitting ass,...

    I don't want to sound like a hair-splitting ass, but Carson, as far as I know, isn't a scientist. He's a medical doctor and a neurosurgeon. I'm not familiar with everything that a neurosurgeon might...
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    Following shifts in favorability or polling...

    Following shifts in favorability or polling numbers at this point is a complete waste of time for determining who is going to get the nomination. I'd still put most of my money on Jeb for reasons...
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    I think it's Bush all day but I agree with the...

    I think it's Bush all day but I agree with the order. Probably put Christie or Carson. I can't wait for the trainwrecks that these debates are going to be. Such high quality entertainment is coming...
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    You're probably right on here. I would also love...

    You're probably right on here. I would also love Bernie to win the nomination. I feel like he has a lot of exciting ideas that he is deeply passionate about. He needs to get the word out about...
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    I'd put Hillary at 65/35 for the nomination. I...

    I'd put Hillary at 65/35 for the nomination. I love Bernie but there's just very little chance that he can get over being "socialist". Certainly not in the general. I think Jeb is more like 80/20. In...
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    I'll take the field against Rubio.

    I'll take the field against Rubio.
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