That some games are unbalanced. I doubt this one is.
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i can't tell whether sharing partner ids is pro- or anti- village. Seems most likely to be village neutral, except the wolves must already be sharing their partnerships => that immediately gives them more information than us. I'm waiting for my +1 to give an opinion on whether he is ready to share our relationship with the world, or whether he wants to keep our thing private and behind closed (closet) doors
(Consent not given)
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mb...db29o1_500.gif
hahaha <3
I'm fairly confident that BID is V.
I am worried about breaking the rules to state why... here goes.
Our choice of communication, and a recent mistake made by BID lead me to believe that he is not using that form of communication in more than one capacity.
Therefore BID is not using wolfchat.
I hesitate to state other factors, such as timing that lead me to believe this read is solid.
***
I'm leaning V on rilla for the reasons ong stated.
I'm also on the fence about whether or not it's good if everyone outs, but I'm in a shitty spot since I'm already outed.
I agree with everything MMM said.
Best team evar!
This back and forth regarding a reveal is quite telling. I, for one, vote not to reveal.
Since there are no specials, we give the wolves perfect information by revealing our partners.
There can be a maximum of 4 W-V links this game (with a minimum of 0 W-V links). Worst case scenario, that's 50% of possible links. How valuable do you think partner information can be with such a high percentage of tainted links?
Let's look at the best case scenario where we have 6 V-V links and 2 W-W links. Us revealing our partners gives the wolves 75% more information that they didn't have. I have a feeling that can only be a bad thing.
It seems BID genuinely (and naively) thinks this is good information to give out. I feel that Rilla should know enough to see that this is a bad idea. I'm pretty suspicious of Rilla atm.
A revenge lynch here by Luco immediately rescinding Rilla. Luco and Rilla top my wolf list atm.
Mod Corner
Vote Count!
Wufwugy (Leading with 3): MMM, Daven, Key
Bankitdrew (3): Boog, Luco, Ongbonga
Ongbonga (2): Ronk, gabe
Luco (2): Rilla, Bankit
Bigred (1): Baudib
Not voting: Idk, who are you? Comrade Questions?
Over 2 days till deadline.
WARNING: Only Roles, Alignments, and +1 identities may be shared. All other PM information is to be KEPT PRIVATE. The next violation will be a modkill.
I would expect drew to be very careful about cross thread talk after his last slip. I can't town him on that alone. That said, if gabe is a wolf then I can't see drew being so quick to call me a villager and gabe a wolf after I attacked gabe. drew is on the backburner for now, I'm not voerly impressed with him so far but then I don't expect to be.
@JKDS:
Was my post about BID a violation?
(I truly tried to make my case without any violation of the rules.)
If even that much is a violation, then there's no point in discussing your lover... there's literally nothing you can argue, besides, "trust me."
Rescind BID
JKDS: I get the impression that someone somehow violated the rules. Can you be clear on what should not be shared as well as an example?
Lotsa feelings in that post Boog.
Lotsa straight forward thinking in mine.
I imagine it was MMM discussing what you (BID) did during your communication fail.
rescind BankItDrew
Lynch boog
Mod Corner
To be Crystal Clear: ONLY in game messages may EVER be used to support an alignment claim.
Use this test:If your partner could say "I didn't say that", or "that's not what happened" , then you shouldn't post it. The only exception is their name, and the role/alignment they claim.
Examples
Modkillable: Gator said (exact quote, paraphrase, gist) in our couples chat.
Modkillable: Gator seems villagery because he threatened my momma in couples chat.
Permitted: I think Gator is a villager, based on talking with him.
Permitted: I think Gator is a wolf, look at in game thread posts 1, 2, and 3! Also, I just feel it.
Oh yeah I'm still on drew.
lynch gabe
so is your mom
the reasons for me being a wolf are bogus. no way i would slip after spending so much time practicing last game
rescind and lynch boog
he asked a question and said "it seems...". both things i noticed myself doing last game as a wolf and tried to stop doing.
thats good enough for me
For that matter, key is lurking, too.
I wanna hear from you, key.
I'm lurking too.
good point, baudib must have a broken keyboard or be a wolf
Hey MMM....Not lurking, just AFK last 36 hrs. Driving solo. I'm on phone tho but suck bad at thumbing, esp at 85 mph. Anyway, FWIW, I agree 100% with you for clearing BID. He tops my ISIS list.
I'm still not convinced that revealing our partners is the best idea. Sure the wolves know many combos. For example, my partner could be a wolf. He knows our partnership. Same for any W-V combos. Has JKDS declared that there are no w-w combos? I don't think he has and I think there's been some deliberation on this.
If there are W-W combos, then that means there are a few V-V's and the wolves don't understand the dynamics as well within the village. In that scenario, I think them not knowing partnerships gives them less levers to pull to shape the village voting. Rilla's proposal hurts the village in this specific situation, in my opinion. Not saying that makes him a wolf but to so drastically issue a role call without debate is sketchy. If he is a wolf, good job on BID to so blindly walk into this information trap.
Or, like me, is playing poker.
gabe, it's not like you to wave your finger at someone based on online status. It's a lame reason to point the finger at someone, and it's also flawed. People leave browsers open while eating, working, driving, masturbating, whatever. You know this. You're not even trying. Even bigred is making more of an effort than you are to figure stuff out. You're just vaguely pointing your finger at whoever. Much like last game, funnily enough. I'm definitely getting the same vibe off you.
Lynch Baudib
Votes for baudib are votes for rilla.
And are extremely wolfy.
no weird vibes here
This is wrong thinking. If baud is a wolf, we have to kill rilla by collateral damage.
It's gonna be that way.
If rilla is 100% convinced that baudib is V, then that's something to think about.
If I believed BID was a wolf (I don't), I'd have to do what I can to kill either him or me... that's the only way for a V-W paired wolf to die.
***
I'm with you on gabe.
If there's a reason to call out boog, it's cause he isn't asking enough questions and isn't getting all aggro on someone... that's what he did last game.
The "it seems" argument is so weak that I can't suss why gabe would even post it.
... unless he's going for honorary dhubs.
this
i see zero value in keeping partners hidden. every lynch includes automatic death of the partner. let's be real, none of us are gonna vote to lynch our partners. this is really just a game of "which two players do we want to die". even in a 3v1 situation, it is always correct to not vote your partner since you know that 50% of the deaths in the lynch are village
it's me n teh hoopster
gabe you just came in, vaguely pointed the finger at baudib for being online without posting, which was followed up by a vote from keybored for baudib based on that logic. Now, bearing in mind that a baudib lynch will result in rilla's demise, I'd say I'm pikcing up weird vibes. You're not even voting for baudib, while influencing his wagon. It's a sneaky way of getting rid of rilla, it looks dodgy as shit to me because rilla looks like he's a villager who has an interest in figuring stuff out.
this is an account sharing game. a schizophrenic one, where the account doesnt know if it has an evil twin
If I sniff W, I act. How long do I ignore my instincts to protect someone else? Two days? Five?
I happen to agree with you, Ong. I think it's folly to rush into exposing pairings until the idea is rationalized more. And I get W vibe off Rilla for pushing it like he has.
I wish people would stop claiming buddies on a whim. You guys are just making instant assumptions and acting on them, instead of thinking it through.
Ong is falling solidly into my V category.
In 3 vs 1, the villager paired with the wolf MUST vote his buddy.
i wasn't planning on talking to Rilla until I was fairly convinced he was a villager.
I am leaning that way for sure now but word to other villagers: Be very careful. I was in a large mash where there was a W-V masonry and it was devastating to the village. The villager was totally bamboozled and sold the rest of the village on his partner being a villager.
Trust no one.
In 3v1, you have an entire thread of information behind you to suss out the wolf.
How about you focus on people instead of mechanics for a while, and maybe - maybe - find an argument to move my policy lynch off of you.
Noting that it will also kill hoopy isn't sleuthing.
And we're nowhere near deadline, and you have 2 votes... it's not like you needed to pull out a ringer to save yourself.
i have seen zero reasons why it's a good idea to not reveal. if we waste time trying to figure out if there is any edge to keeping it secret (which would be super tiny if it exists), we'd just be turning that edge into a liability
i dont want people to think that it's wolfy when i don't bold hoopy, because i never will. i dont want to misread the intentions of other players when they never vote their partners too. life if gator and keith were partners but nobody knows it and i see gator acting weirdly about keith, im probably going to call it wolfy. but if i knew they were partners i wouldnt
it's just a giant complication that provides no value. when we lynch players, we are lynching 100% what we know. there is no reason why we should keep ourselves in the dark about who the other half that we're lynching is
rate of accuracy of reads is far too low. i think it is always correct to vote for the non-partner unless you get an actual slip up or something from your partner. but if you're just trying to figure out his play with your smarts, the odds favor you far more to just take the shot at the wolf being one of the other two partners
lynch monstr
just 1 post in the first 24 hours of this game, but 12 posts in the first 24 hours of last game
forgive me for making rational arguments.
consider the previous game, with a final day of me gabe luco jkds. if there was just one wolf and me n gabe were linked. i would need a damn good reason to vote for him because the other option would be to get a freebie in jkds and luco dying at the same time. from my perspective, i either get to kill gabe alone or jkds/luco together
granted it can be possible to have good enough reads where we think that the probability fo gabe being wolf is higher than the probability of it being either luco or jkds, but if this was representative of ww, it would mean that ww is inherently imba against the village. the fact that we believe that having just one kill choice on 3v1 is good enough for the village to win a fair amount of time, it means that two kill options in the same spot is incredibly awesome
I'm coming around to the idea of Wuf being a wolf.
Maybe Monstr too.
@ wuf: who do you read best in this game, and what is your read on them?
A coinflip? You mean it's 50-50 in terms of pure odds who got to 2 votes first. The village will be left debating if the wolf skillfully ensured he didn't get to 2 votes first, if the wolf even more skillfully ensured he did get to 2 first so he looks the most villagery, or if he superbly ensured the two wagons are both villagers. What actually should happen is every villager assesses his partner, while the wolf pretends to, and hopefully the wolf will fuck up, or the villagers will be too strong.
I feel like we should lynch wuf, simply because he'll be a liability at endgame if he's refusing to even consider voting for hoopy.
Thank fuck for that.Quote:
wuf is very villagery imo, ong slipping.
We are voting pairs of players.
I nominate that we bold the pair and not just 1/2.
This will help bring clarity to the village in that we won't need to try and figure out who else may die.
How are you going to vote for me then drew? You gonna guess who my partner is?Quote:
I nominate that we bold the pair and not just 1/2.
nobody is going to bold their partners. if they do they're fucking stupid.
every lynch is two players. every. lynch. is. two. players. if you vote for your partner, you have self-lynched. rilla's post was correct
maybe in a 3v1 scenario the game could be blown so wide open that the wolf is so obvious that it is no longer a mistake to self-lynch
Why do you suppose self lynching is specifically ok in this game? Because it might be necessary.
I might vote for my partner. If I have enough reason to think he's a wolf, then so be it. I'd happily die if I took down a wolf.
rescind luco
I'm not going to vote for someone when I don't know their lover. Otherwise, ong would get it.
Voting for your lover makes sense sometimes.
It's super rare though... basically only if they make an error on par with my N1 chat with JKDS recently.
You're actively trying to make not claiming pro-wolf. If I'm a wolf, well why the hell would I tell you who my partner is, knowing you'll vote for me if you consider that person disposable? What you're doing here is trying to make my stubborness look wolfy.Quote:
I'm not going to vote for someone when I don't know their lover. Otherwise, ong would get it.
lynch drew
I strongly disagree with this. Revealing partners gives wolves information that they didn't have.
Also, with 4 wolves and 14 villas, it is absolutely pro-villa to lynch your partner if you're convinced they're a wolf. The villas can afford to trade 1 for 1 with the wolves, while this would be devastating to the wolves.
Poor mojo.
if that is true then it means that either this game is hyper imba against the village or normal games are hyper in favor towards the village
reasonably we should almost never have enough reason to think this, especially in early and midgameQuote:
I might vote for my partner. If I have enough reason to think he's a wolf, then so be it. I'd happily die if I took down a wolf.
this game is like the monty hall problem. you would need some abnormally good intel to have enough odds on your side to make voting for your own pair to be correct
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
If I think my partner is a wolf, I will vote for them. If you don't do that as a villa, you're not playing for your wincon and not being pro villa.
I don't think revealing is pro-villa. It's the one piece of information that the wolves don't have.
revealing partners gives the village information we dont have. much more value in that than what the wolves get out of knowing. let's say we think gabe is a villager and we lynch bigred because he never does anything, but they're linked. then we say "oh shit how dumb was that, we didnt want gabe to die"
this game is different than normal in that the partners make the statistically correct choice far more easy to see. granted i dont think we're going to stick to this 100%, but we've got to be kidding ourselves if we think we're gonna vote for our partners any time soon. nobody is going to opt to kill just one possible wolf instead of two possible wolves
like it or not, the correct way to lynch is to kill the two players we want dead, not just the one player then have the other die as a surprise
Wolves have obv revealed their fuckbuddys in den. But they don't know the rest. Wouldn't it benefit them if they could take out the strongest pair first? In lieu of Special hunting, all they have to strat about is rank order of lynching. Why would we give them that knowledge?
lynch wuf not changing.
Wuf, you're not hunting. Not only that, but you're stubbornly attached to a spurious assumption that multiple people have pointed out that you simply must abandon. Your failure to openly abandon this notion that your partner is unlynchable is the most dangerous thing that has presented itself to the village today.
Keeping information in limbo where no one knows the information, is not +EV for anyone. The question is who is it more valuable to?
The answer is the village because:
When wolves vote, they make essentially 2 votes. Wolves know the role of both players (V or W).
When villagers vote, they make essentially 2 votes. Villagers know the role of one of the two players.
MMM, I'm disappointed in you.
obviously. the problem is that the margin of error in "what we think" is always so super high. people give me shit for sucking, but the truth is that every good read is wrong most of the time. a significant odds change is almost always more than enough to keep the balls off of any of those "good reads" that are mostly wrong
obviously it's possible for a read to be so strong that it makes killing half as many potential wolves the correct move. but it's like shooting yourself so the bullet can pass through you to kill a potential bad guy behind you instead of trying to hit the two potential baddies in front of you hiding in the bushes
am i suggesting nobody bold their buddy? no. i said we need to be real and acknowledge that nobody's gonna vote their buddy except in extreme circumstances. we also need to be logical and realize that we're lynching two players each round, not one
I don't see where it helps the villas. At least not yet.
Assuming all wolves are partnered with a villa, then with 18 live players we have 4 w/v partners and 5 v/v partners.
I'm trying to work thru the odds here for whether or not it is pro villa to know the partners.
Let's assume all partnerships are known. If I'm a villa, then it's better for me to vote for my partner than a random villager since I'm likely to hit a wolf 4 out of 9 times. But that only works if everyone follows that, which others have already stated that they won't vote for their partner (wuf in particular).
Still need to think on this more to think of the other angles.
That's not the point. The point is that there is ZERO value in revealing our partners (there is YET to be one rational argument for doing so and, again, we're giving the wolves perfect information on a silver platter). So what you, BID and Rilla are doing is most likely -EV for the village. It's definitely not a positive and stop pretending it is. Why are we revealing without having a logical discussion given it? Those who've revealed so far haven't even thought it through.
So what would you have lost from revealing at a point where people suspected wolfiness where you didn't bold hoopy. You created a scenario that didn't exist and that would have been easily solvable: you could have just revealed AT THAT POINT. Hoopy would have corroborated. Nothing would have been lost.
And here you are again creating a sense of urgency THAT DOESN'T EXIST. Let's just reveal as we lynch. There is NOTHING LOST FROM DOING SO.
Wuf, Rilla and BID need to start thinking through this reveal stuff and stop making it seem that anyone who thinks otherwise is suspect. There's a wolf in there somewhere, especially in those revealing without their partners approval.
Wuf, I'm going to assume for a minute you're a villager. Well, you're in a better position than anyone to for a read on hoopy, especially since you soulread his ass last game. You have an obligation as a villager to be honest about your opinion of hoopy, even if you think he's a wolf. If you're more concerned about self preservation, then that indicates that your obligations lie elsewhere.
read every d1 game ive played in the last 3 years
we've even argued on the very subject, where i defend the belief that the kinds of reads that are important in early game are different than late game
i never said my partner is unlynchable. i said the statistics dictate that every player should be expected to not bold their partners. this is absolutely correct. it is only if a read is so incredibly strong (abnormally strong) that it becomes statistically correct for a player to lynch his partner
obviously we're not going to stick to this 100%. dont get down my throat for pointing out the most obvious thing there is. i was quite surprised to come back from class to see most players hadnt already come to this conclusion.
This is a good point and something I haven't considered. The wolves are obviously not going to try and lynch their partners, and target any of the others and any lynch of a villager driven by the wolves will be a 2 villa lynch.
I think every villa needs to look strongly at their partner to get a read on them. Assuming all of the partnerships are w/v, then every lynch of a wolf takes out a villa.
If you're partner is wolfy, then they need to go. It's the only way for the villas to win.
i get that. i havent argued for self-preservation. i have pointed out the statistics. if a villager votes for his partner, he KNOWS he is voting for a villager in himself. he knows that if that lynch happens, 50% of the results are definite villager death. but he doesn't know this if he votes for a non-partner. from the perspective of a villager, the amount of villagers lynched when he votes for his partner is higher than the amount when he doesn't
im not sure why this is so controversial
do we know who we're lynching in normal games? yes. why would we think it's correct to not know who we're lynching in this game?
if the idea that we should keep partners hidden is correct, then i think it necessarily means normal games are entirely a crapshoot because it means in those games we would have made just as good of lynch decisions if we didnt know who we were lynching
It's complicated, and I'm not 100% on my stance, but I'm leaning reveal.
Wolves already have way more information than us.
The question is:
Is it more valuable to the village to prevent the wolves from getting 100% information
Or is it more valuable to the village to prevent itself from having 0% information.
In most games the wolves already start with 100% information, aside from PRs.
In this game, the PR component is essentially removed to a "trust me, I'm his partner and I think he's bad."
It's a thin line, and I don't see it as a huge mistake to give the information to everyone.
(but I'm already outed, so what do I have to lose, right?)
I'm trying to think thru the possible partnership combinations and what is most likely with 18 players (4 wolves, 14 villas).
(1) 4 w/v partnerships and 5 v/v partnerships.
(2) 1 w/w partnership, 2 w/v partnerships, 6 v/v partnerships.
(3) 2 w/w partnerships, 7 v/v partnerships.
I don't see (3) as a possibility unless the game is a total troll by the mod, which I don't buy.
I'm leaning more to (1) from a game balance standpoint.
Also, (2) doesn't make as much sense from a game standpoint since the w/w partnership is redundant with wolfchat.
I advise against further partner reveals until a solid case is made that it absolutely benefits the village. Cuz it clearly benefits the W's.
Any other discussion about it is smokescreen.
Do you read shit over before you post or do you just click the button? You think that playing with hidden partners is equal to playing in a regular game and lynching with your eyes closed? Stop trying to make it seem that us lynching without a partner reveal means we don't know who we're lynching. We'd know who we'd be lynching, we just don't know the baggage that comes with lynching them (although, revealing prior to getting lynched would alleviate this problem). Also, does knowing the baggage REALLY change the decision on who to lynch? It should really only change a potential wolf bandwagon. If you strongly suspect a player of being a wolf, the baggage is a moot point.