Quote Originally Posted by dev
The more I think about All-in EV the more I realize how useless it is. If we were to measure luck as a whole and then figure out how much of it comes down to AIEV, we'd come up with less than 10%. HEM doesn't even measure the money put in on streets before we shove afaik.
True, I get that part, and I'm winning like $150 in a session, but still have lost 4 out of 5 all-in coin flips.

And I also understand IOPQ's point about how it's easy to focus on 1 part of poker luck / variance and disregard every other facet. I've played 20k hands at an 8 ptbb/100 win rate at 50nl FR. They suck. They're weak tight, and the furnace of 100nl has my game pretty well used to thin value for big money. They're nut-camping nits. They hate getting squeezed. At 100nl, some squeezes like every other orbit. They don't 3bet much.

So I really have no clue even after 20k hands how much is luck, how much is the fact that they don't have reads, how much is the fact they're TAGG-nits while I'm TAGG-super-agro, and how much is the fact that they just suck.

I'm just happy to be winning big right now: positive variance, them sucking or whatever it is.