OK, so I took daven's advice and started checking the W$WSD and W$WSF stats. Just as a first guess, it seems any W$WSF < 35 or so is a sign of very spewy play; and any W$WSD < 45 is a sign the person may call down too many bets on the turn/river.
I'm still doing the color-coding. I like having "money reads" show up like a neon sign in the middle of my poker tables. And I'm still taking lots of notes to back up the colors. And it's cool. Villains really do have patterns to their play, and you can infer a lot from a "big leak" note. Highlighting them has really got me thinking each hand how I can exploit them. I had TT on a Kxx flop where I would have called 99% of the time in March, and I folded it 'cuz the person doesn't cbet without hitting the flop. See the read, make the lay down. I got a line a guy who calls the river too much and picked up 2 $10 thin value bets. See the read, make a profit.
I think the best thing about spending so much time analyzing the big exploitable habits villains/regs have is that I found some of my own leaks. For example, I believe I call down more than I should in big pots - can't let my money go. I think I fold correctly pretty much in small/med pots. But I get attached to the bigger pots, 'cuz so much of my stack is in there (I'm talking like 20 - 25bb, just less than pot-committed), and I lose more. Put 'em on a range, and when you're drawing thin, just fold those rags, amiright?
I'm also changing some things postflop. I believe I was too readable especially in EP. I bet every time I hit the flop and cbet a good bit (probably too much). I'm toning both down a lot, adding in lines like check/raise and check/call/donk turn with some top pair overpair hands. I'm also bluffing some, especially with draws/overcards that could make big hands. Sometimes just with an underpair or air.
And then there's preflop, which I used to think I was solid on. I'm flatting AA a lot in LP which I never used to. You earn some advantages in the CO and BTN, often getting another weak call out of the BB. A 3-way flop isn't horrible with AA, and it makes the pot bigger for a nice raise.
A hand I played tonight went like that: MP bets $2, I call otb, BB calls, flop is Qxx. MP cbets $4 into a $6 pot, I raise to $11, all fold. I used to 3bet AA all the time, and most of the time you get a fold, so a $2 profit. When you get your 3bet called, it's rare they call the cbet. So you bet $6 and get $4 more from the PFR. I'm just pretty certain flatting AA late is more profitable, and it will add some excitement into my LP flat calls when the regs start to realize it! I always 3bet KK, 'cuz I hate Axx flops with it, but I've begun flatting AK some as well. Still, gotta have AA and AK in the 3bet/5bet range, I'm randomizing some to keep mixing it up.
So, the return to 3betting and 4betting and how the ranges work and when to stack off...I'll have to rework the preflop stuff again after a few k hands of seeing how the changes seem to play out for me. Then I'll be back at work postflop, trying to sort it.
But it's all good. I feel like I'm finding leaks and putting some positive energy in poker, trying different lines and tactics that should make a big difference in my bottom line. And I'm spending poker profits, despite a bad month last month. So life is beautiful.



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