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Have sports the next few nights, then my xmas work party on friday and I'm heading to Chicago on sat morning till next thurs evening. So Won't be grinding for about a week!
Was looking over some filters with JL last night. Found one pretty ridiculous leak.
I'm down $6.5k in the last four months in hands where I 3bet pre, AND get all-in pre with hands that are NOT AQ+ and TT+ (worked out to something like -1900bb/100, or 19bb/hand). My logic would have been, that I was winning sufficient dead money from 4bet maniacs to be worthwhile. So I ran another filter, with allin-true not on, but instead "raised 4bet= true", and in this case I was still down $5k in all those hands. That worked out to like -17bb/hand.
If we assume that my avg 3bet is to around 9-10bb's. Then I'd be better off folding to EVERY 4bet with these hands (-10bb/hand), than shoving some of these for fold equity (-17bb/hand).
I also ran a filter for doing the same thing with AQ/AQs and I'm surprisingly down there too!
Needless to say, either I need to find better spots where I'm much more positive they are light, or ppl have already adjusted to the fact that I'm shoving so light, and are rarely bluffing me now. And instead always 4bet/calling wider.
I also need to make a smallish ($100ish) prob-bet with someone about getting my 3bet down. It's been close to 10 the last few months, and wouldn't mind trying to get it down to 8 or less in Dec. Let me know!
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