Villain is 5/3 over 60 hands -- I obviously discount this a little bit, as over 60 hands we have a pretty wide confidence interval as to what his actual long-run stats might tend towards. Regardless, we still assume a rather tight open range, even from the button.
$0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG russkov187 ($4.95)
CO mutola ($5.70)
BTN So sick dude ($8.96)
SB Penneywize ($17.59)
BB enzirob ($9.89)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Penneywize is SB
2 folds, So sick dude raises to $0.17, Penneywize calls $0.15, enzirob calls $0.12
Flop:
($0.51, 3 players)
Penneywize checks, enzirob checks, So sick dude bets $0.40, $0.4 to Penneywize ($17.42)?
Thoughts: Standard cbet obviously; while I do expect him to cbet the majority of his holdings here, even on a somewhat coordinated (but low) board, his range is obviously quite tight given his preflop tendencies. Here's how I have his range broken down:
Overpairs such as AAxx, as well as KKxx and QQxx, the latter two having suited and/or connected side cards.
Rundowns such as JT98, JT97, JT87, T987, 9876 and so on, usually at least single suited.
There are relatively few sets in his range imo. The only really plausible set hands he might have would either be those that are double-paired, like JJ88, and occasionally those that have suited and connected side cards, like (98)(87) or something similar.
Some percentage of the time, he will have air-ish type holdings that looked good pre but completely whiffed the flop, such as four broadways or something like ATJ9.
Given all of this, I am behind the vast majority of his holdings at this point. In terms of my action here, I am sort of torn between a 3/4 pot sized raise and just calling (can't imagine folding here given my nfd + clean overset outs).
I'll try and explain the merits of each action here.
Raising would likely fold out his overpair type hands a good percentage of the time. Since these hands have generally little potential to improve in situations like these -- and fall prey to reverse implied odds -- it would be relatively hard to peel one off (and I could probably continue my aggression on the turn in most cases).
His other holdings -- the suited rundowns in particular, will either peel or re-raise me with strong equity, and sort of put me in a shitty spot. Sets are usually raising in this spot as well.
Calling would obviously allows me to retain my equity and keep the pot rather small, though it has the negative aspect of turning my hand rather face-up; I will usually bet turn once I bink a non-pairing flush on the turn or river, and I'll not often extract much more value out of my opponent, except for the odd case where he holds a second or third nut flush and decides to look me up. I do however have a small chance to complete a clean overset with my TT, which would probably allow me to get another bet or two out of his stronger holdings, but other than that my outs will lead villain to shut down on future streets.
It seems to me that my action here depends on how I weigh the likelihood of his holdings - I have a lot of fold equity if he holds overpairs and air, but relatively none against strong draws or sets. Against the latter, a call is preferable, hoping to get the maximum from a second nut hand / weaker set when I do bink.
Any thoughts on this hand, or, in particular, my thought process in general?
EDIT: I should also point out I'm not terribly concerned with BB here
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