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Been super busy snuck in a tired ~500 hands when i got home today at like 11pm
Leveled myself hard here, is it avoidable? i feel like his stats mislead me
Villain is 9/9, inf AG factor, 53% ag faq, 3% 3bet (2/60), 4bet + 0% (0/9) (over 199 hands) no read as of yet
limper is a fish
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Frisar (UTG): $53.75
tallonn88 (UTG+1): $50.25
Didibotas (MP): $50.75
mark&vera30 (MP+1): $39.10
TonnaMunz (CO): $50.00
myuu89 (BTN): $50.00
funnymalloy (SB): $57.60
seiscero (BB): $50.75
funnymalloy posts SB $0.25, seiscero posts BB $0.50
Pre Flop: ($0.75) TonnaMunz has K K
fold, fold, fold, mark&vera30 calls $0.50, TonnaMunz raises to $2.50, fold, fold, seiscero raises to $7.50, fold,
I raise to 5x to iso the fish
When he 3bets I think he has two ranges
A. Value
AA, KK which crush us I doubt he is raising AK or QQ purely given that hes 9/9 3% 3bet and raised our 5x raise to 3x
B. Semibluff
He could see that i'm isoing the fish and given history with me see that I could be doing it wide so it's EV+ to 3bet bluff me in a vacuum so he could have std Ax Axs hands Kxs or SC's ect
I think his range is weighted more towards value purely because it's not the most optimal time to 3bet bluff and he 3x's my 5x pre raise, hes so nitty I feel like its really hard not give him credit. Flawed logic?
So hes weighted to his value range, which is weighted to AA because we block KK
With all that in mind I elect to flat I won't fold here because he doesn't have AA 100% of the time. I feel if we raise only AA is continuing/5betting so we either get crushed or turn KK into a 4bet bluff.
TonnaMunz calls $5.00
Flop: ($15.75, 2 players) J 6 K
seiscero bets $9.90,
He could be cbetting with a with AA or a 3bet bluff I doubt hes Pure bluffing so it would more likely be AcXc or XcXc I still think he's weighted way more to AA here
We crush both with top set. I guess raising here would be better but I call.
TonnaMunz calls $9.90
Turn: ($35.55, 2 players) 8
seiscero bets $33.35 and is all-in,
His possible draws get there but we only need 32.36% to call { 32.6/(32.60+68.15) } and i still thinks hes weighted to AA
Here are some equity calc's vs a few possible ranges
{ AA,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,Tc9c,7c6c,6c5c,5c 4c } 46.17%
we are still ahead of
{ AA,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c } 54.36%
or if he somehow has AK
{ AA,AdKd,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,Tc9c,7c6c,6c 5c,5c4c,AcKd,AhKd,AsKd } 56.02%
or
{ AA,AdKd,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,AcKd,AhKd,As Kd } 64.63%
or
{ AA,AcKc,AcKd,AhKd,AsKd } 88.89%
{ AA } 86.36%
Given all that i call
TonnaMunz calls $32.60 and is all-in
River: ($100.75, 2 players) J
seiscero shows K Q (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (PreFlop 8%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
TonnaMunz levels
WTF just happened tripple range merge??????
I guess that's what I get for treating 199 hands as a decent sample?
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