I posted the details how to calculate "typical" downswing scenarios in this thread, but folks complained about the very simplified math involved.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ls-t67185.html

So I decided to do y'all a favor. I made the following Excel Spreadsheet and posted it on my website at school (I'm a math professor at NGCSU in Dahlonega, GA, for those who don't know). I teach stats every day, an intro course and a calculus-based course for math majors. Here's the link.

http://radar.ngcsu.edu/~rsinn/links/varcalc.xls

What does it do? You enter your win rate and standard deviation (easily found in PT), and it calculates the decile ranges for your expected short term win rate (or loss rate, as the case may be). It's set to analyze 10k hand periods, but you can adjust it as needed. It also gives some "downswing" stats, letting you know worst case scenarios for ice-cold coolers and what they can do to your bank roll.

Finally, you can use it to personalize your bankroll requirements for moving up a level. Directions are included.

I would be happy to answer any questions you have about the calculations or estimates or how to use them. Caution: the provider makes no claims as to accuracy or usefulness of content, especially not the Bank Roll requirements for moving up!! LoL. Use 40 BI when moving up or proceed at your own risk!! The spreadsheet just provides hard numbers (personalized based on your stats) that experts are using when they come up with their recommendations.