Value-Betting the River

Here's a trick question:

Assuming we are IP and checked to on the river against a single Villain, under what conditions should we value bet?

When a worse hand will call.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($323.80)
UTG+1 ($232.00)
CO ($385.35)
BTN ($326.00)
SB ($113.80)
Hero ($140.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
4 folds, SB calls $1, Hero checks

Flop: ($4, 2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($12, 2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $14

River: ($48, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

Final Pot: $92
SB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $89 ( won +$43 )
SB lost -$46.00

Originally Posted by Fnord

When a worse hand will call.

Obviously but there's a lot more to it.

when there is value to be had

Originally Posted by daven

when there is value to be had

Now that really answers the question.

When villain is never c/r bluffing for one.

Assuming he will either c/c or c/f then we should bet when our hand beats more than half of our opponent's calling range

Originally Posted by daven

when there is value to be had

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($225.60)
UTG+1 ($51.60)
CO ($125.85)
BTN ($415.60)
SB ($172.00)
Hero ($229.55)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($7, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($7, 3 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, 1 fold

River: ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, CO calls $14

Final Pot: $47
CO shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $44.70 ( won +$22.70 )
CO lost -$22.00
BTN lost -$2.00

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($199.75)
CO ($203.00)
BTN ($214.00)
SB ($140.60)
BB ($132.40)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

Turn: ($34, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($34, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

Final Pot: $78
SB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $76 ( won +$38 )
SB lost -$38.00

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200.00)
Hero ($223.20)
CO ($37.00)
BTN ($217.15)
SB ($181.90)
BB ($213.70)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($13, 2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $10

River: ($37, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB calls $24

Final Pot: $85
BB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $82 ( won +$40 )
BB lost -$42.00

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($228.00)
UTG+1 ($102.10)
Hero ($367.80)
BTN ($288.75)
SB ($416.00)
BB ($162.65)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

Turn: ($29, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20

River: ($69, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB calls $24

Final Pot: $117
BB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $114 ( won +$56 )
BB lost -$58.00

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($221.40)
UTG+1 ($200.00)
Hero ($385.35)
BTN ($191.40)
SB ($36.75)
BB ($373.50)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($41, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($41, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $20, UTG+1 calls $20

Final Pot: $81
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $78 ( won +$39 )
UTG+1 lost -$39.00

OK, you take the percentage of the time you're ahead and get called

say you get called 60% by a bad hand, 40% by a better hand
you're getting 20% on your bet
the times you get check-raised we'll assume you throw your hand away so in that position if you get checkraised 10%, you're losing your bet 10% of the time

so we're making 10% of our bet totally making it +EV

so (1-chance of getting called by worse) - (chance of getting called by better) - (chance of getting checkraised)

but what about fold equity? Usually you're not getting called by a worse hand if a better one would fold so let's make another equation

(getting a better hand to fold + getting the same hand to fold / 2) / (getting called or raised by a better hand)

has to be greater than pot percentage

so if we're betting third of the pot, pot percentage is 25%
if the chance of tying is 1%, and chance of folding a better hand is 24%, we shouldn't make the bet since we'll be raised or called by better 75% of the time but only split the bet 1% of the time
but if we get a slightly worse hand to call 1% it's worth it but I didn't put that into the equation since it's a bitch

Originally Posted by wellrounded08

When villain is never c/r bluffing for one.

but sometimes you want him to :D

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Assuming he will either c/c or c/f then we should bet when our hand beats more than half of our opponent's calling range

Yeah this is the answer that I knew I'd get but there's a bit more to it.

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Now there's a healthy attitude.

would it need to be half his range if we VB and don't pot it? I would think with FE against part or half of his range we can VB with more than half his range calling. Money behind of course.

Originally Posted by jyms

would it need to be half his range if we VB and don't pot it? I would think with FE against part or half of his range we can VB with more than half his range calling. Money behind of course.

Actually we can't bet anything +EV if more than half of his range calls and beats us since then the bet is -EV (not matter the size) and checking behind would have a neutral EV.

It changes when we have some mid-range hands that give possibility to him folding a better hand, ie merging ranges and all that shit.

If your opponent is raising or check-raising on a bluff a portion of the time > 0% then you should value bet less

Originally Posted by bigteif

If your opponent is raising or check-raising on a bluff a portion of the time > 0% then you should value bet less

Thanks for copying and pasting a line of something I said from IRC. That really shows that you've thought about this and are bringing something constructive to the conversation and are trying to actually learn.

alright i'll go into more detail

sometimes you end up folding the best hand and losing value when you would have kept that value by just checking behind when IP and check/calling when OOP

AHHHHH...

We VB when ahead.

Originally Posted by bigteif

alright i'll go into more detail

sometimes you end up folding the best hand and losing value when you would have kept that value by just checking behind when IP and check/calling when OOP

Thanks for copying and pasting a line of something I said from IRC. That really shows that you've thought about this and are bringing something constructive to the conversation and are trying to actually learn.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Now there's a healthy attitude.

Not to get into some huge argument but the people you were trying to reach with your post have no idea what any of this whole thread means anyways, so keeping it as simple as possible is probably the way to go.

It's like if you wanted to learn to play the guitar. First, learn notes, 2nd, learn chords through those notes, then, learn to play a song through chords. Same with poker, you're trying to get a noob to play stairway to heaven with out them ever learning a note.

Originally Posted by jyms

AHHHHH...

We VB when ahead.

No, sometimes when you're ahead you only get a fold and get check/raised when behind.

For example, when the fourth straight card comes and your opponent has been calling the entire time. When you bet on the fourth straight card your opponent will realize he's behind because you would avoid betting a scary board if you had a hand he had beat and fold his second pair or whatever. But if he made his straight he would raise.

So even though your TPTK is ahead on that board, you check behind against a thinking player.

The biggest lesson I think newbies need to learn it to just go ahead and fire good hands on scary boards. They vastly under-estimate how wide a range their opponents will call with.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

It's like if you wanted to learn to play the guitar. First, learn notes, 2nd, learn chords through those notes, then, learn to play a song through chords. Same with poker, you're trying to get a noob to play master of puppets with out them ever learning a note.

fyp

1. When more worse hands will call than better hands.

2. When (1) is unclear then value bet when you feel your hand is at least 60-65% vs what you estimate villains range to be.

imo "when they call with worse" is lazy logic and probably causes ppl to value bet more thinly than they should

Originally Posted by Renton

ppl to value bet more thinly than they should

Huh? This seems backwards.

Basically I like to rethink the hand in my head, re-read the board texture, analyze how the river card changed the board texture, then determine if they could have gotten to the river with weak-made hands or if their range is predominately weighted towards draws. Obv if the former is the case I'm betting and if it's the latter I'm c/c'ing if the board texture didn't dramatically change.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Renton

ppl to value bet more thinly than they should

Huh? This seems backwards.

I certainly do

im not saying most ppl value bet too thinly. im saying that people who use that precise logic "they call with worse" is theoretically valuebetting way too thinly.

LIke say we simplify poker to being hand strengths 1-10 with equal distribution. If i have an 8, and i believe your calling range to be from 7 to 10, and i believe you call with your entire range, then thats a check behind, even though you call with a 7, because i lose 17 cents for every dollar i put into the pot.

no one value-bets too thinly, it's not possible, we call that bluffing.

Originally Posted by Renton

LIke say we simplify poker to being hand strengths 1-10 with equal distribution. If i have an 8, and i believe your calling range to be from 7 to 10, and i believe you call with your entire range, then thats a check behind, even though you call with a 7, because i lose 17 cents for every dollar i put into the pot.

Sure, but I find that people under-estimate how often 4s, 5s and 6s call. Particuarly in smaller games.

ok

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

no one value-bets too thinly, it's not possible, we call that bluffing.

some people value-bet second pair
that's not bluffing, but that's not wise either

ok was referring to spendas asininity (is that a word, it should be imo)

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

no one value-bets too thinly, it's not possible, we call that bluffing.

DO U C Y?

Originally Posted by Renton

Like say we simplify poker to being hand strengths 1-10 with equal distribution. If i have an 8, and i believe your calling range to be from 7 to 10, and i believe you call with your entire range, then thats a check behind, even though you call with a 7, because i lose 17 cents for every dollar i put into the pot.

If you don't value bet the river and get called by a better hand every now and then, you're not value betting thin enough.

who's sauce123

stevebets on FTP I think

I don't see why

Originally Posted by iopq

who's sauce123

Maybe you could ask him to do a sweat. I hear he's not bad.

Lets say 5% of the time we have the nuts so we know we value bet that.
Also it depends on his calling range is there a possability of him folding a better hand. Lets say there isn't.
Lets say 40% of hands he calls and wins %55 I win.
Then there is the check raise bluff and it depends how much he check raises. There is also the check raise which is not a bluff. Lets say he check raise bluffs 5% of the time.

.4 * 1 betting unit = .4
.55 * 1 betting unit =.55
.05 *1 betting unit =.05

Are net is .1 betting unit.

It also depends on the amount of his bluffs to the times he has it. and the ratio of his bluffing to the times he has it.

like before 5% percent we have the nuts and have him beat we call.

chance of that happening is .05*.05 = .0025 or .25%
.25% * 4 betting units (Assuming he checkraise to 4x) = .01

are net is .11 betting units

I just wrote all that above and came to the conclusion that that is not enough. There has been a part that has been forgoten. We not only lose the value bet but we lose the whole pot. We have to measure how much pot we lose if we check raise.

Lets say the pot is at 10$

Lets say our value bet is $4

.4 * 14 = 5.6 oppenit wins
.55 * 14 = 7.7 we win
.05 * 14 = .7 he wins

our net is 1.4

if we had not value betted we would

.6 *10 = 6
.4*10 = 4

our net is 2

So it is more + ev not to value bet even though value betting may be +ev so we have to figure out how many time he will check raise bluff a hand we would have beat if we checked behind.

So the smaller the value bet the less profitable it becomes because of the check raises. We have to weigh wich is more +ev. It also matters with value bet size it should change proportionately to the amount he calls down and wins.

In the previous example it is less ev but what would happen if the value bet size changed and his calling range remained constant.

We need to use the equation

(percentage of time we win - percentage of time he wins)(Pot = VB) = (amount we win if we checks -amount he wins if he checks)

our unknown in this equation is VB or x for the scenario above our proper bet would be

(.55-.45)(10 + x) = (6-4)

By algebra we figure out that a bet of anything less than ten dollars would be less ev than checking behind. With a bet of ten we cannot get such a gracious calling range.

The only thing that might change is if our bet gets smaller his calling range where he loses might get larger.



Assuming you can't put him off a hand you will have to calculate the percentage of times he will bluff and make your value bet based on that. I'm still not sure how to calculate value bet size.

You forget that changing the bet size also changes his check/raise frequency because if you bet real small he's going to try to bluff you more

But then again, he'll call you down with more if you bet low rather than if you bet high

Originally Posted by iopq

You forget that changing the bet size also changes his check/raise frequency because if you bet real small he's going to try to bluff you more

Yeah, bet sizing is pretty important we could go off on just that topic.

Quite often bet sizing for me comes down to how strong I think my oppoent is. If I think he's got a very good hand, I'm more inclined to pot it.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Now there's a healthy attitude.

Not to get into some huge argument but the people you were trying to reach with your post have no idea what any of this whole thread means anyways, so keeping it as simple as possible is probably the way to go.

It's like if you wanted to learn to play the guitar. First, learn notes, 2nd, learn chords through those notes, then, learn to play a song through chords. Same with poker, you're trying to get a noob to play stairway to heaven with out them ever learning a note.

Yes you're right, we should just stick to "Should I fold AA preflop" and "what are pot odds" in the beginner's forum.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

re-read the board texture, analyze how the turn/river card changed the board texture

I just started noticing this idea this week

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Now there's a healthy attitude.

Not to get into some huge argument but the people you were trying to reach with your post have no idea what any of this whole thread means anyways, so keeping it as simple as possible is probably the way to go.

It's like if you wanted to learn to play the guitar. First, learn notes, 2nd, learn chords through those notes, then, learn to play a song through chords. Same with poker, you're trying to get a noob to play stairway to heaven with out them ever learning a note.

Yes you're right, we should just stick to "Should I fold AA preflop" and "what are pot odds" in the beginner's forum.

I am glad we agreeeeeeeeeeeeee

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

nah

not in the beginner's forum there isn't.

Now there's a healthy attitude.

Not to get into some huge argument but the people you were trying to reach with your post have no idea what any of this whole thread means anyways, so keeping it as simple as possible is probably the way to go.

It's like if you wanted to learn to play the guitar. First, learn notes, 2nd, learn chords through those notes, then, learn to play a song through chords. Same with poker, you're trying to get a noob to play stairway to heaven with out them ever learning a note.

Yes you're right, we should just stick to "Should I fold AA preflop" and "what are pot odds" in the beginner's forum.

I am glad we agreeeeeeeeeeeeee

I love you big spenderererrrrr

Nice discussion, guys - good see Renton, Fnord, Spoon, Spenda + in the same thread. I have recently been learning to play the river better, and these points (even Spenda's) really helped me clarify my thinking.