think I fucked this one up

I found this hand in my DB it looks horrible
villain is 11/11 over 18
no other reads



$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.89)
UTG+1 ($10.82)
MP1 ($9.67)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($5)
CO ($13.52)
kickass (BTN) ($10.73)
SB ($11.61)
BB ($4)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) kickass is BTN
5 folds, CO raises to $0.30, kickass calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players)
CO bets $0.50, kickass calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players)
CO bets $1.10, kickass raises to $2.90, CO calls $1.80

River: ($7.55, 2 players)
CO checks, kickass checks

how would you all play it

Oh god bet river. You haz da Ahi floosh! Combo count! Full house hands: KK (3), TT (3), 77 (3), KQ (3), QT (3) = 15 hands that beat us. Couldnt he have something like KT(9) or AJ (12) or AK (9) that might call? Also checking river discounts his FH hands a bit, and leans his range more towards these hands that are scared of flooshes. Its thin, but bet river!

Is it even that thin?

Is it even thin?

Lol

3bet pre, raise flop, turn played fine, bet river.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Is it even thin?

IDK, villain's nitty and called a turn raise on this board. Beats me, but if it was only nut hands...then a bet is still obvious! Thats all im sayinnnnnnnnnn

you all think he's calling river with a straight? I fucking wouldnt and I certainly wouldnt be calling with AA or AK or KT do regs at these stakes not think like me, maybe I could bet really small. Am I nit?
I hate the turn the most I think its far to small or dont raise it at all

Based on this hand kickass, you're a passive nit. You don't seem to be willing to put any money in without the nuts... you have a near nut hand here and are checking behind on the river... you're flatting a raise on the BU with AQs... you're flatting the monsterest of draws on the flop... the only time in this hand you show aggression is when you have the nuts on the turn. This is highly exploitable imo, you're losing tons of value and might be being pushed off hands that you shouldn't be folding.

Here, I think a straight calls, QJ might call, definitely worse flushes call, a bad villain might even call bs on you and hero call a king.

You're nowhere near as aggressive as I am, and I'm trying to be more aggressive.

put more money in everywhere, checking behind river with the nut flush and massive blockers to any full house is absurd.

Villain probably isn't waiting for you to bet the river once he binks his boat.

if you were villain what could you have and what would you actualy call a bet with and what size? do you think Im ever bluffing here?
Im not being augmentative for no reason, I know you guys are better than I am, just want to put a thinking player in villains shoes.

It's hard to say what I call a bet with here if I were villain. If you've been showing passive tendancies up to this point, you making a river bet here is going to be strong, and as such I probably fold a straight and call flushes and better. But if you're showing a little more aggression in previous hands, your range is wider, so I would be much more likely to call a straight and maybe even QJ.

Checking this river means the table saw you play a hand relatively passively when you could've been extremely aggressive. You can use this table image to make bluffs later. If you're aware of your own table image, you can have a better idea what villain calls river bet with, and have a better idea whether it's a good idea to bet river or not.

I bet this river, but then villain should expect me to bet river when checked over with Q or with missed semi bluffs like JT maybe, thus he calls a straight. If villain only expects you to bet boats here, then don't bet, and move table so you can build a new image.

and if you had 18 hands on me prolly not played much over that sample size.
thanks anyhow food for thought and that. prolly a reason why I barely ever get my stack int the middle.

The passive way you played it looks very much like you made the flush on the turn, and probably the nut flush at that. So while it may not be easy for a player at this level to fold a straight or a lower flush when you raise, it's certainly possible. That begs the question what he called with. The first possibility that comes to mind is a set, hoping the board will pair on the river.

When that happens, if he did call the turn with a straight or lower flush, it seems even more likely he'll fold if you bet. So this kind of looks like one of those situations where you're not very likely to be called by a worse hand.

If I have 18 hands on you then I call straights to a half pot river bet almost certainly, maybe QJ, and at least begin to build a profile of you and your tendancies. When you check and show nut flush, I make a note telling me you have a very tight river value range.

I bet so many worse hands in this spot I generally don't worry about what I'm going to get called by, especially when it's a hand this strong.

holy shit raise that flop. as played raise turn slightly bigger and jam the river. yo kickass, list the hands you think villain calls the river with and determine how many possible combinations each one has. then group them into "hands you beat" and "hands which beat you" and report back here with findings

AJ(12) KK(3) TT(3) KQ(3) QT(3) KT(9) 77(3) AA(3) AK(9) KJ(12) and J9(16)combos counted allowing for Q river
what I beat AJ J9 KT AA AK KJ 51 combos beat by KK TT KQ QT 77 15 combos
for a crushing 80% in my favour, this I already knew but I felt that he would never call a bet and only jam boats I know I have no evidence for my "feeling" but I think that if any of you got to the river with any of the above hands the way the hand had played out you wouldnt call with anything less than a boat maybe thats just me cos ong said he would call, but i wouldnt call vs a player like me, after this line, and he would have to call with all 12 combos of AJ and some J9 for me to be 50/50. If I bet small maybe I could get looked up wider and as he shouldnt have any real trash left in his range I shouldnt fear the chk raise bluff. bet fold would be better feels disgusting to fold tho

Something I learnt recently, people call with all kinds of crap. People are kinda curious in general are far more likely to make the mistake of calling too much than anything else, hence why value betting is the first thing everyone tells you to get to grips with to beat micro nl.

the reason I didnt raise the flop was cos I was already beating a ton of stuff he c bets having hit 2nd pair so I didnt feel the semi bluff really acheived much. but Ive been thinking about the mistakes he could make like folding AK or KJ or even AA which I wasnt sure he would fold but he might and I shouldnt make it easy for him to 'actualise' his equity plus he might call with hands I actually beat like QJ and JJ. yes I think I like raising the flop more than calling as I still have massive equity vs the nut part of his range.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Something I learnt recently, people call with all kinds of crap. People are kinda curious in general are far more likely to make the mistake of calling too much than anything else, hence why value betting is the first thing everyone tells you to get to grips with to beat micro nl.

yeah I should know this by now. gonna go hang my head in shame for a while.