Stacking off with Trips

Is this correct play? I know this is about an 80% hand, but I keep questioning my 3-bet and calling the AI.

Villan is 33/14.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2.10)
Button ($2)
SB ($8.55)
Hero (BB) ($10.70)
UTG ($2.70)
UTG+1 ($9.70)
MP1 ($1.85)
MP2 ($7.70)
MP3 ($11.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 5
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.35) 7, K, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.05) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.05, MP3 raises to $3, Hero raises to $4.95, MP3 raises to $11.05 (All-In), Hero calls $5.30 (All-In)

River: ($21.55) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $21.55 | Rake: $2

Initially, it looked fine to me and I probably would have played it exactly the same way. The more I think about it though, the more I think the betting pattern on the turn indicates he's got you beat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_h...ample_showdown

Originally Posted by poker_pup

The more I think about it though, the more I think the betting pattern on the turn indicates he's got you beat.

That's what I was thinking, too. I kept seeing the hand strenght without really paying attention to how he was betting. I think I had mentally commited my stack at that point, which I'm likely to do with an 80% hand. The problem is that I don't pay attention to how others are betting and I end up shitting like an elephant.

It is without a doubt the biggest hole in my game right now, and I need to fix it.

what do you mean by 80% hand?

Give some ranges and then you'll get more reviews

you know that card didn't change anything, you only outdrew bottom two pair and he wouldn't raise you if he got counterfeitted

any other hand that had you beat still has you beat

iopq is right, the only hand you beat now that you didn't before is 97... when he raises the turn I might find a fold if I'm feeling nitty.

Originally Posted by kmind

what do you mean by 80% hand?

Give some ranges and then you'll get more reviews

By 80% hand, I simply mean that this hand would beat 80% of all other hands dealt, or that I have an 80% probability of winning. I actualy put this into my calc tool to double check, and it says this is 60% on the flop with 2 opponents, but 90% on the turn HU. Weak...I know, because it doesn't take into consideration likely ranges I would put my opponent on.

As far as ranges, I would easily put this guy on pockets or any high connectors. the more I think about it, the more I hate my play on this hand. 77, 99, K7 and K9+ all have me killed. Definately well within this guys range. In essence, I really don't have much more than top pair, weak kicker. Not a good spot to stack off.

Originally Posted by kb coolman

I really don't have much more than top pair, weak kicker. Not a good spot to stack off.

I'm still a noob but IMO either fold preflop or have a plan preflop. With suited hands like this, with a weak kicker, I play for the flush only. If you don't flop at least 2 more suited cards, I either fold or maybe take a stab with a c-bet and fold if reraised. Of course if your bad kicker hits trips, you're good or if you flop two pair, continue with caution. Otherwise, the bad kicker kills the hand.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Originally Posted by kb coolman

I really don't have much more than top pair, weak kicker. Not a good spot to stack off.

I'm still a noob but IMO either fold preflop or have a plan preflop. With suited hands like this, with a weak kicker, I play for the flush only. If you don't flop at least 2 more suited cards, I either fold or maybe take a stab with a c-bet and fold if reraised. Of course if your bad kicker hits trips, you're good or if you flop two pair, continue with caution. Otherwise, the bad kicker kills the hand.

you can't fold from the big blind :D

anyway, the plan is to hit two pair, not trips
if you hit trips try to play for pot control

in fact, a check is probably more correct on the flop because you have TPWK

Originally Posted by iopq

anyway, the plan is to hit two pair, not trips
if you hit trips try to play for pot control

Exactly. This is what I get for not playing by the rules...

Originally Posted by kb coolman

Originally Posted by iopq

anyway, the plan is to hit two pair, not trips
if you hit trips try to play for pot control

Exactly. This is what I get for not playing by the rules...

This thread doesn't seem to make any sense to me. I'm felting this against most 10nl opponents. (Any other reads would help, btw.) At 10nl, imo, villains who are 33/14 will play lots of sc's/Axs draws this way. Also, I've seen a lot of A7 and A9 hands played this way. In my view, you're ahead more often than behind. I would felt it, or call the shove.

Also, with trips as with sets, you have 10 outs to the full house on the river which would beat the flush (if it came in).

Last thing, any additional reads on villain would be nice. Is he passive? That would change my mind about the all-in call. I'm worried here against someone who otherwise plays timid. Is he aggressive? Then it's an insta call, imo. What has stacked off with? A lot of 10nl opponents will stack off with 2nd pair. If he's one of them, you've got the nuts with trips and should felt it.

Obviously, the reason you're posting is because you got beat. Don't be too results oriented. He's got a really wide open range limping behind a limper, and he obviously liked the board. But I think his range is wide enough that you're ahead. Lots of big draws haven't gotten there, yet.

IOPQ, playing for pot control against a 33/14 on a drawy board is a good way to give great reverse implied odds to your opponents. And why in the world would 2 pair be better than trips here?

i like Robb's post

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by kb coolman

Originally Posted by iopq

anyway, the plan is to hit two pair, not trips
if you hit trips try to play for pot control

Exactly. This is what I get for not playing by the rules...

This thread doesn't seem to make any sense to me. I'm felting this against most 10nl opponents. (Any other reads would help, btw.) At 10nl, imo, villains who are 33/14 will play lots of sc's/Axs draws this way. Also, I've seen a lot of A7 and A9 hands played this way. In my view, you're ahead more often than behind. I would felt it, or call the shove.

Also, with trips as with sets, you have 10 outs to the full house on the river which would beat the flush (if it came in).

Last thing, any additional reads on villain would be nice. Is he passive? That would change my mind about the all-in call. I'm worried here against someone who otherwise plays timid. Is he aggressive? Then it's an insta call, imo. What has stacked off with? A lot of 10nl opponents will stack off with 2nd pair. If he's one of them, you've got the nuts with trips and should felt it.

Obviously, the reason you're posting is because you got beat. Don't be too results oriented. He's got a really wide open range limping behind a limper, and he obviously liked the board. But I think his range is wide enough that you're ahead. Lots of big draws haven't gotten there, yet.

IOPQ, playing for pot control against a 33/14 on a drawy board is a good way to give great reverse implied odds to your opponents. And why in the world would 2 pair be better than trips here?

1. People don't play draws aggressively in NL10. They usually have it.
2. Op didn't say he had a read that he stacked off with second pair.
3. Because if you had made two pair on the turn instead of trips, you'd beat more of your opponent's range
4. I'd rather lose a pot than a stack because in NL bets are more important that pots (whereas in limit, pots are more important than bets)

would you play your hand this fast if the turn was the 2 ?

IOPQ, this is just crazy-talk wrong.

Originally Posted by iopq

1. People don't play draws aggressively in NL10. They usually have it.

LoL. I guess if you're weak-tight and never look them up, you might think this. But at least watch the action when it shows down and you're not in a hand.

Originally Posted by iopq

3. Because if you had made two pair on the turn instead of trips, you'd beat more of your opponent's range.

This is the one the makes absolutely no sense. You see, there's this deal in poker called hand strength, where trips beats two pair. If 2 pair's ahead of x% of his range, trips is ahead of AT LEAST x%. I don't think having 3 fewer combo's of some Kx hands changes that, but I'm not very good at math.

Originally Posted by iopq

4. I'd rather lose a pot than a stack because in NL bets are more important that pots (whereas in limit, pots are more important than bets)

I'd rather get my money in when I'm ahead, losing stacks or whatever else I have to, to get a chance to win in +EV situations. Nothing you've said demonstrates how we're behind. You're just stating some general platitudes with certainty. What's this range we're behind (less with 2 pair, tho, than trips)?

If someone puts villain on a range and shows me some PokerStove results that back up the "fold now" / pot control theory, I might start listening. But this is just crazy talk. (And yes, I've done the ranges and PokerStove myself.)

There isn't a draw in the world that this type of villain is waiting for that turn card to raise and then shove over your 3-bet. Any combo draw that he wants to play fast will be raised on the floop. At best you are hoping to chop w/ another shitty K. XTR nailed it IMO.

Robb, what range are u giving villain that makes this a call? I'm at work so no stove, but a realistic range IMO would include precisely 2 draws (6s8s and 8sTs), and even then i think they could be heaaaaaavily discounted. Even getting roughly 3:1 i think the turn is a fold.

robb i hope for your sake that you are leveling but that does not appear to be the case

I fold to the re-raise on the turn at $10nl 6-max, let alone FR.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm not very good at math

at least Robb´s leveling here =)

I can see iopq´s point regarding the "if you made 2pr" just as Robb´s comment about hand strength. Thing is, and thats what my 2 post was pointing at, if we had made 2pr AND WERE FACING THE SAME action we´d definetly be beating more hands of his range, since a 5 would have improved our hand. Turning trips didnt actually improve us at all except the rare case where he monkeys around w/ 97. Ask yourself if you´d be willing to stack off on a bricked turn, if so go ahead and shove. If not try to showdown cheap or let it go.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

There isn't a draw in the world that this type of villain is waiting for that turn card to raise and then shove over your 3-bet. Any combo draw that he wants to play fast will be raised on the floop. At best you are hoping to chop w/ another shitty K. XTR nailed it IMO.

Robb, what range are u giving villain that makes this a call? I'm at work so no stove, but a realistic range IMO would include precisely 2 draws (6s8s and 8sTs), and even then i think they could be heaaaaaavily discounted. Even getting roughly 3:1 i think the turn is a fold.

I weighed in as devil's advocate because, even if the "pot control" play is sound, the reasoning offered was not, imo. Good poker logic was not present in the thread.

Kettle, I'm glad someone's finally talking about ranges. I would be fine hearing that someone thinks I'm wrong if they got specific. On the devil's side, the best feature of 10nl opponents is their willingness to stack off light. If we include only Kx hands that dominate hero plus Axs (spades only), A9o, A7o, the OESD's, 9xs (spades, x>7) and the two sets (full houses), Hero's got 68% equity. I think that's conservative and that some broadways with gutshots/FD's are in there, too. Of course we'll have to discount some of those based on the betting, but that range includes ALL the hands we're scared of even though several of them are unlikely too.

There is another unfortunate problem with the HH - it includes the river card. I think on the turn (before we know that piece of information) lots of Axs +A7 and A9 is in his range. I think other FD's are, as well, though I would discount (some of) them. In my view, a folks are using the river card to reason backwards to the turn action, narrowing the ranges too far. I have a half dozen examples of hands played this badly by 10nl opponents - just in the last week.

Nuts, I thought the thread was weak and made a case for playing it fast on the turn. And I'd be a lot happier with this thread if a GOOD case was made for pot control. Or if we discussed the type of reads that make the turn an autofold. Or something legit. That hasn't happened, yet, or at least not until kettle chimed in.

Originally Posted by robb

Originally Posted by iopq

3. Because if you had made two pair on the turn instead of trips, you'd beat more of your opponent's range.

This is the one the makes absolutely no sense. You see, there's this deal in poker called hand strength, where trips beats two pair. If 2 pair's ahead of x% of his range, trips is ahead of AT LEAST x%. I don't think having 3 fewer combo's of some Kx hands changes that, but I'm not very good at math.

IOPQ, I apologize for this - I didn't read carefully enough. I thought from your earlier statement that you meant IN GENERAL to hope for 2 pair rather than trips, not this specific situation. You're right that Kx hands that had us beat on flop would be behind (except K9 and K7) if the turn was a 5. Sorry.

Well, our equity only went up with that king if we were ahead to begin with.

Are we ahead on the flop? If villain raises us on the flop, are we 3b/felting?

Originally Posted by Robb

Kettle, I'm glad someone's finally talking about ranges. I would be fine hearing that someone thinks I'm wrong if they got specific. On the devil's side, the best feature of 10nl opponents is their willingness to stack off light. If we include only Kx hands that dominate hero plus Axs (spades only), A9o, A7o, the OESD's, 9xs (spades, x>7) and the two sets (full houses), Hero's got 68% equity. I think that's conservative and that some broadways with gutshots/FD's are in there, too. Of course we'll have to discount some of those based on the betting, but that range includes ALL the hands we're scared of even though several of them are unlikely too.

There is another unfortunate problem with the HH - it includes the river card. I think on the turn (before we know that piece of information) lots of Axs +A7 and A9 is in his range. I think other FD's are, as well, though I would discount (some of) them. In my view, a folks are using the river card to reason backwards to the turn action, narrowing the ranges too far.

LOL A7, i'd chop my balls off if he shows up with A7 here! Realistically u can't include that in an relative unknown's range, it's just silly. With a read fair enough, but not here.

Agree that the river card has probably influenced my range *slightly* , but i still think given turn action that the following is the lightest range we can reasonably give villain:

6s8s, 8sTs, 7x9x, AXs, 9Xs (still not buying this tho really), 77, 99, KX (X can be better or worse than hero's 5 imo. Given action a worse K is more likely than SD/FD).

I'm guessing if u do the math for that range it's still a call? What about if u take out the AXs hands (or at least most of them to account for how unlikely it is).

villain doesn't show up with 9x like ever
you know he CALLS 20% of the time preflop
why would he raise with marginal hands post-flop?

doesn't he love calling?

I still think y'all are crazy to fold here. I believe Hero can profit from a check/call of an all-in flop bet because he's ahead of villain's range.

Edit - I had some nonsense here.
Example: If the straight draws are in villain's range AND NOTHING ELSE WE LIKE, Hero has 52% equity here against K6-KQ and sets (boats). And KQ and KJ are in his likely 14% PFR range.

Stove: 2,816 games 0.005 secs 563,200 games/sec

Board: Ks 9c 7s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.326% 46.41% 05.91% 1307 166.50 { Kh5h }
Hand 1: 47.674% 41.76% 05.91% 1176 166.50 { 99, 77, K6s+, T8s, 86s, K6o+, T8o, 86o }
Edit close

We can debate the likelihood of ranges, but Hero just doesn't need all that much non-Kx to be in the range to have 50% + equity here. Here's some interesting results you can verify (and you should - poker stove is acting quirky on me, so I've had to run a couple of these more than once - I stopped as soon as I got the same answer twice in row).

Bad News for Hero:

Hero has 21% equity against Kx (x>5), 77 and 99. (Note that Hero has 50% equity against Kx w/ x<6, so ignore.)

Good news for Hero

Hero has 89% equity against T8, 97, and 86 (all combos) Edit: 97 unlikely in extreme.

Hero has 98% equity against Ax (at least one card NOT spades - everything but AK is drawing dead).

Hero has 84% equity against Axs (spades).

Hero has 82% equity against Q9s, J9s, T9s & 98s (all spades), the best combo hands not covered above.

Hero's Equity

You can do your own estimates of equity by making a weighted average based on the % likelihood you feel each category is represented. When performing that averaging estimate, it helps (but is not mandatory) to know the following:

There are (6*4 + 2*3 = ) 30 combo's of Kx (x>5), and (2*3 = ) 6 combos of 77 and 99.
There are (3*9 = ) 27 combo's of T8, 97, and 86.
There are 10 combo's of Axs (spades only).
There are (9*16 =) 151 combo's of Ax (x not = K, 9, 7, 5).
There are 4 combo's of AK and 24 combo's of A7 / A9.

We then have to discount various portions of this range including some of the less likely Kx hands, like KQ and AK, for example, which are probably in his PFR range. It would be interesting to see what other folks come up with if they're willing to do the work involved. If you're not, at least say what's in your range and run it in PokerStove.

Hero Profits when calling a turn-shove

The turn got funky. Let's just compute what we'd need to see Hero with equity to make check/calling an all-in shove +EV on the turn. Hero is much further ahead when he's ahead, meaning the number of combo's of OTHER hands to make Hero have more than 50% equity is something like 30 - 32, depending on which you choose.

For Hero to profit from a check/call of an all-in shove to be profitable, he only needs 47.4% equity.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

LOL A7, i'd chop my balls off if he shows up with A7 here!

Don't play 10nl with a sharp knife nearby.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

the lightest range we can reasonably give villain:

6s8s, 8sTs, 7x9x, AXs, 9Xs (still not buying this tho really), 77, 99, KX (X can be better or worse than hero's 5 imo. Given action a worse K is more likely than SD/FD).

I'm guessing if u do the math for that range it's still a call? What about if u take out the AXs hands (or at least most of them to account for how unlikely it is).

Funny thing, I'm crazy for thinking about Ax, but no one's admitting that he raises enough preflop that we can't include KJ+. How many total combo's of Kx do you think he can hold here? Why? (BTW, the answer is less than 20 - note that I'm ignoring worse K's since we coin flip with them.)

Originally Posted by iopq

villain doesn't show up with 9x like ever
you know he CALLS 20% of the time preflop
why would he raise with marginal hands post-flop?

doesn't he love calling?

33/14 is a pretty frisky 10nl player preflop. Seriously, put together a 14% PFR range. Hell, he raises preflop at FR almost as much as I do at 6max. And this fact seriously limits the top end of his Kx range.

Two things about preflop vs. postflop aggression. First, they aren't necessarily correlated. Second, preflop aggression factors have very little to do with how he might play the flop and next to nothing to do with his turn actions.

Villains will show down hands like 9x or Axs on this board. Just check the bad beat forum if you don't believe me.

I call the raise on the turn and c/f river. If you do 3bet turn you should call but I wouldn't 3bet to begin with. I also probably elect to c/r flop if villain really does play aggressively. I mean we've shown 2 pot sized bets, he's very rarely bluffing and just because we have trips doesn't mean we have the nuts.

^^^ How constructive! Plz post moar of your witty internet pictures in teh beginner's forum!

And Robb, I'm not saying that 10nl villains aren't occasionally doing stuff like shoving A7 here, i'm saying that to include it in a fairly unknown villains range is tantamount to setting fire to your own money, and will lead to bad habits if ppl include shit like that in villains range GIVEN THE TURN ACTION. I will concede your point about villain not having that many K's in his range given PF tho (i was forgetting PF when i was replying yesterday).

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by kettleofish

LOL A7, i'd chop my balls off if he shows up with A7 here!

Don't play 10nl with a sharp knife nearby.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

the lightest range we can reasonably give villain:

6s8s, 8sTs, 7x9x, AXs, 9Xs (still not buying this tho really), 77, 99, KX (X can be better or worse than hero's 5 imo. Given action a worse K is more likely than SD/FD).

I'm guessing if u do the math for that range it's still a call? What about if u take out the AXs hands (or at least most of them to account for how unlikely it is).

Funny thing, I'm crazy for thinking about Ax, but no one's admitting that he raises enough preflop that we can't include KJ+. How many total combo's of Kx do you think he can hold here? Why? (BTW, the answer is less than 20 - note that I'm ignoring worse K's since we coin flip with them.)

Originally Posted by iopq

villain doesn't show up with 9x like ever
you know he CALLS 20% of the time preflop
why would he raise with marginal hands post-flop?

doesn't he love calling?

33/14 is a pretty frisky 10nl player preflop. Seriously, put together a 14% PFR range. Hell, he raises preflop at FR almost as much as I do at 6max. And this fact seriously limits the top end of his Kx range.

Two things about preflop vs. postflop aggression. First, they aren't necessarily correlated. Second, preflop aggression factors have very little to do with how he might play the flop and next to nothing to do with his turn actions.

Villains will show down hands like 9x or Axs on this board. Just check the bad beat forum if you don't believe me.

I run 20/15 in FR
he raises less than I do
just because villain will have 9x some of the time doesn't mean we can put it in his range
because he can show up with ANY hand here and if we put him on hands that he's not LIKELY to hold we lose

and you didn't explain whether you're stacking off on this flop
also, we're behind Kx because we have a crap kicker
he has more KT+ in his range than K9- LDO

classy

also: I think b/f is best here and I take back my original advice.

could have possted that at the start reDZill4

good post

you guys are silly the turn def. improves his pot equity a lot

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

you guys are silly the turn def. improves his pot equity a lot

it also improves villain's range

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

you guys are silly the turn def. improves his pot equity a lot

it also improves villain's range

not at all as it cuts out a lot of Kx combos

How could the other guy shove without a full house or another trips of kings here anyways?
I'd figure he has 77, 99 (slowplayed flop) or anything between KQ-KT. All of which beats "hero's" hand.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($247.56)
Moron#1 (BB) ($186.80)
UTG ($167)
Hero (Button) ($554.71)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
1 fold, Hero raises $7, 1 fold, Moron#1 calls $5

Flop: ($15) 9, A, 10 (2 players)
Moron#1 checks, Hero bets $12, Moron#1 calls $12

Turn: ($39) 2 (2 players)
Moron#1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($39) A (2 players)
Moron#1 bets $30, Hero raises $129, Moron#1 calls $99

Total pot: $297

Results below:
Hero didn't show K, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Moron#1 had J, J (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $297


These morons learn just enough to be dangerous.