Raising on a draw...question

Raising on a flush draw helps disguise your hand. Lets say the flop comes and you're on a great flush draw. You bet and you get one, maybe two callers. Anyway my question is, if you don't make your hand on the turn, and you're first to act, do you check this time? Bet again? What should you do in most situations?

This depends heavily on which cards are on the table, as well as your opponents, stacks and other things. Your question is really too general to answer.

If you think your opponents will fold enough, combined with the times you'll hit your flush on the river, is +EV, than bet. If not, check.

If you have 4 or more callers, like it sounds here, betting into all these players with a draw may not be the best play.

Check the hand, and see the action behind you before you decide what to do.

If you have a nut flush draw, or strong flush draw, consider a check raise on the flop as a semi-bluff --if you think the bettor will fold.

If you have one or two opponents then leading out on the flop is a stronger play.

Why raise on a flush draw? It will disguise your hand. But that's only because nobody would do it. If you are 4 flushing, your odds are low on the turn and by the river, not so good. Why not save your chips for a different hand? You don't even have a pair!

I'm with MitchellC, a nut flush draw - build the pot! Anything less and you might end up with second best flush.

Originally Posted by minSim

This depends heavily on which cards are on the table, as well as your opponents, stacks and other things. Your question is really too general to answer.

To get a bit more specific, when oop I bet any draw with what I feel are 8 or more solid outs like it's a made hand, pretty much like I would with TP 2nd kicker. Meaning I'll lead the flop and bet out once more, either turn or river (usually turn, but it depends on reads, stacks, board, etc.).

In position, I'll cbet pretty much anything when checked to (read dependent, with other considerations), and play anything with 5 or 6 outs like it's 2 pair, meaning fast and hard on flop and turn, shutting down on river (or a turn) if I'm getting too much heat.

Example 1: I've got AQs on BTN, EP and MP limp, I raise to 5xBB, EP calls, MP folds. Flop comes T82 with 1 card in my suit. Depending on reads, I've got 6 overcard outs and back door nut flush draw (1.5 outs) and either a J or a 9 gives me a gutshot draw. That's about 8 outs, and I'm firing this flop like I have a hand. Because I do. I've got a 25% chance of having the best hand by the river, plus the fold equity I've established by betting out pre and following it up like I'm playing QQ or JJ on this board.

Example 2: Same as before, with flop KT6 with 2 of my suit. I have at least 15 outs ( 9 flush, 3 gutshot, 3 outs for overs - A only since a Q may not put me ahead), maybe count it as 16. Now, I have a 50% of winning this hand by the river, and I'm betting it extremely aggressively.

I don't even really consider the second hand a draw. It's so strong that I can bet it hard, and felt it if needed. If I'm willing to fire that much heat, most villains will fold by the end. I've been known to 4barrel with Example 2 hands, firing that last barrel on the river with ace high knowing I can only beat a bluff.

Example 1 hands are the dicey kind of draws that I'm trying to play pot control with, not get too involved with too little. Also, you have to look at those redraw outs - they matter when they hit and make your hand VERY playable on the turn. They're worth something, 1 or 1.5 outs in your calculations.

Basic recommendation from my style of play is this, given that we're first to act on the flop:

10 outs or more - fire away as if you had AA pf, you're probably favored to win the hand and almost certainly have pot odds for any bet, raise or call. I lead with a standard 2/3's pot bet.

8 - 10 outs - play like a 2 pair hand, aggressive as hell on the flop and maybe one more barrel on turn, ditching river when you don't improve. I lead with a 2/3's pot bet, and typically 2/3's again on turn.

5 - 8 outs - play like a top pair 2nd kicker hand, cbet flop and ducking any heat that comes back. I lead with a 3/4's pot bet.

3 or 4 outs - lead flop with full PSB for your cbet, and don't put in any more chips without improving. I'm thinking of something like me with A8s raising on the BTN after it folded to me, getting a call from the BB. Flop is K93 with no cards in my suit. My only outs are A.

2 outs or less - what the hell were you betting preflop for?

I play a good bit more agro with position after I've been checked to, but I keep the "rr cbet%" stat on my HUD and tread carefully against what looks to be a check-raise happy villain.

And notice that I bet less the stronger my draw is. I think one of the most telling "tells" micro players have is betting small with small hands and big with big hands. It should go in the opposite direction, since smaller bets have a higher likelihood of getting called.

I will mention my above analysis is mostly for heads up flop play, or 2 villains + hero at most. For 4 or more, I'm still betting in situations where I think I'll just get called, but the considerations are very different. I think syphon and mitch were addressing multiway pots, which I wasn't. I disagree with them. We very much need to be betting into multiway pots with draws, but the considerations are different.