"He's got a set" -itis

I think I'm suffering from this debilitating disease. I think I have been trying too hard lately to avoid sets and giving most people who raise my flop cbet (with an over pair or TPTK or TPGK) too much credit for the set.

Take this hand for instance:

Villain's like 38/10 over ~120 hands and doesn't show down a lot of garbage.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($5.88)
Hero ($4.95)
MP1 ($8.81)
MP2 ($3.22)
CO ($5.44)
BTN ($6.51)
SB ($3.45)
BB ($9.95)

Pre-flop: ($0.07, 8 players) Hero is UTG 1
UTG calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, UTG folds

Flop: ($0.62, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, MP2 raises to $1.05, Hero folds

Final Pot: $1.52

MP2 wins $2.07 ( won $0.77 )
UTG lost -$0.05
Hero lost -$0.70

It felt weak to fold and I did consider just shoving over, but like I say, I'm giving a lot of credit for sets lately.

I don't know quite what to ask that won't seem incredibly obtuse, but all I can think of to ask is, how can I stop myself from doing this? What are the real signs to look for that scream set? Or should I just stop trying so hard to avoid it and accept that I'll occasionally have to stack off with an overpair and TPTK?

{moved to beginner's circle}

Shove this please.

bet more on flop and then just 3bet shove

That's what everyone else says, I know what I did wrong there, it just illustrates a problem I'm having lately. I'm just asking what I have to evaluate here to not assume "oh he must have a set" every damn time like I seem to be doing. I'm thinking it must just really be a matter of "sack up and do it, if he has a set oh well, reload and keep chugging" but I'm interested in some peoples' opinions.

Aces are the nuts on the flop. Kings are the nuts when there is no Ace.

Fin

completely agreed with fnord and i don't think you should worry too much about these hands.

well vill might have a set but his line is not typical of someone with a set

at this level, remember that your opponents are most likely going to be thinking that TP is the nuts, and that whatever random other hand he can have is also the nuts, or that bluffing is the nuts (there are a lot of nuts is my point). There are so many worse overpairs, TP's, and draws that can raise you here that you cannot ever fold an overpair as strong as KK.

In fact, if you are trying to fold to sets when opponents are routinely stacking off with TP or worse you are making a huge mistake and costing yourself a ton of cash.

Yes, sometimes villain will have a set, but you have to remember that most of the time he won't. When you have an overpair on a harmless looking flop, this is the time to try to get it all in. In the long run, you will win vs. villain's non-set hands.

I think there is a sticky somewhere (full ring forum) about sniffing out sets. This is not a case where you should be worrying about them though.

[Edit] http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ck-t29053.html

ahh, this is double fist pump shove.

villain has a 65bb stack which means you get all in with him when you have a strong overpair.

this is an all in regardless of stacks. If you can't profitably felt KK as an overpair at .02/.05 then the game is in serious trouble.

If I'm reading you right your question is more about how to get over the fact that your psychologically-related loss aversion is a notch or few too high at the moment.

Unless you've been playing a little scared for your entire poker career, then this is just something that happens in cycles with the game. When you're running into a lot of sets, you get paranoid. It's natural. It's a form of tilt where rather than throwing money around too loosely instead causes you to tighten up too much and costs you money when you fold too much, don't bet enough, etc.

I'd chase the source of the tilt first - were you just running bad or running into sets a little too often with overpairs? Were you overly confident in hands and paying off too much?
Then I'd focus on the standard strategies to get over tilt. Take some time off. Play a different style of game or tournies instead of ring. Lots of strategies you can find around here to get over it but it comes down to personality - what helps you.

As far as 'spotting' sets - or generally determining when you are beat. There are already lots of threads around here addressing this subject as well. Those can help initially if you're just always paying off, and there are definitely some common situations where you can have a higher degree of confidence in making a laydown, and some where you just can't fold and have to pay off that you just have to learn to accept.

Originally Posted by littleogre

well vill might have a set but his line is not typical of someone with a set

At micros, imo, very few villains (including me ) can avoid the "slow play my set" disease. You made a good-sized flop bet, and if villain has a set his best way to get more chips in the middle is to call, not raise. The raise could scare you off - which it did.

You asked how avoid "he's got a set-itis." Watch for slow plays (check-call or call) on the flop that "wake up" on the turn/river. And read the thread linked above. But the biggest thing you have to realize is that you often have to just to pay him off. I think that's Fnord's point about Aces on the flop - if he's got 'em and villain just his set, we've just gotta pay him off. The times we win big against TPTK or worse overpairs are too valuable to miss, especially at 5nl.

BTW, I seriously worry about ANY micro-villain who tends to bet right out 2/3's or 3/4's pot after flopping a set. That's a decent player who's likely to be trouble, and I want him to my right. I note that kind of behavior and remind myself (every time I hit a set) not to slow pay it.

One final thing is the "click back" donk-sized raise. Try to note which players use min-bets, min-raises and min-rr's for their strong hands. Most of these bets in my games (10nl) are mediocre hands, but there are exceptions which generally lead to an excruciating stack off. Note these "monster min-bettors" and only call them down with correct pot odds.

ooooops totally misread ur post

I think I get it, I'm not sure why I was doing it but I definitely shouldn't be playing scared in places like this. I've actually gotten a lot better about getting 2 or 3 streets of value out of players who pull this kinda crap on me, but I just sorta had a relapse to an earlier stage here. I think DaHorror has it when he says its a kind of tilt because I think I was remembering too many times where I called or reraised and ran into something stupid. I actually realize (somewhere in the depths of my mind) that they usually stack off with a lower pair here provided the next two streets don't bring a crappy card, but that'll happen, so there's no sense trying to sniff that out either. Don't know why I didn't trust that.

Thanks, I appreciate all the feedback.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Aces are the nuts on the flop. Kings are the nuts when there is no Ace.

Fin

nice.