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Poker Math Question - Geek Squad Please Help
I'm trying to calculate the probability of flopping a straight or SD with various connectors. I started w/ T6. Here's my problem. I'm counting 2,816 possibilities, or a 14.37% chance. I think I must be too high.
Questions
1. Does anyone know the actual probability or odds? or where to get them?
2. I'm unsure of #4 below. Can you help?
3. I'm pretty sure of #1 - #3, but if I'm wrong point it out please.
19,600 possible flops
64 straights - 0.00327
512 OESD's - 0.02612
2,240 Gutshots - .11429
Check my thoughts here:
1. The only straight possible is 987, which can happen in 64 ways (4*4*4)
2. OESD's can only happen with 3 specific cards (also 64 ways each). Here are the 8 combo's:
KQJ - QJ9 - Q98 - J98 - 875 - 874 - 754 - 543
3. Gutshots can happen as 3 card combo's (64 ways each). Here are the 8 combo's:
AKQ - KQ9 - QJ8 - J97 - 975 - 854 - 743 - 543
4. Gutshots can happen as 2 card combo's
98 but no QJ7 (already counted). There are 4 9's, 4 8's then one card chosen from the 12 remaining T986's and the 24 cards from the 6 other values, so 16 * 36 = 576.
97 but no J85. Same calculation = 576.
87 but no 954. Same calculation = 576.
Any thoughts? BTW, unsure of where to post this, so I came here.
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