You want their stack to be deep enough to pay you ~8x your pre-flop call. EDIT: NOT the amount they 3-bet, but the amount you call, minus the amount the pot is currently when you call.
BUT, you're gonna need them to have a hand strong enough to call you when you hit... so you can't assume they will stack off against you every time you hit your set, and you can't expect the set to win every time, either.
So there are other reasons to want their stack to be deeper than your minimum implied odds dictate.
You know the rule of 2 and 4 for estimating your odds OTF, right? Count your outs, multiply by 2 for the % to hit on the turn... if you're considering an all-in call, then you multiply your outs by 4 for the % to catch on either card.
So... that's based on the fact that you can't see roughly 50 cards. So the odds to hit 1 of 50 is 1/50 = 0.02 = 2%. See? It's just a simple math trick to acknowledge the fact that 1/50 is not too far from 1/47 or 1/46... so just take the one that's easiest to do in your head.
Now...
If you have a PP, then you have 2 outs to catch a set. So take 2 outs over 3 cards (the flop) and you get
2 (outs) x 2 (% per out) x 3 (cards on the draw) = 12%
12% is nearly 7.3:1 against, and damn close to the 7.5:1 against that you actually have.
So this trick of counting your outs to determine your % chance to hit works pre-flop as well. Go ahead and use this trick to estimate your odds going all-in pre-flop w/ AK vs QQ... now vs KK...
Show me the estimate next to the equity calc. DO IT OR I SEND MY TEAM OF HOWLER MONKEYS TO SIT ON YOUR ROOF FOR A MONTH!!!!
TL;DR
You are a 7.5:1 dog to catch a set OTF, when you hold a PP. You need to get that money into the pot and Villain wont necessarily stack off against you every time you do... so getting 20:1 on some of those hands, or at least having the chance to, is going to help make up for the times you catch your set, but don't get paid the right price to set-mine profitably.
Reply With Quote