Wouldn't more hands reduce the varience? Actually I see what you are saying. More hands will mean you will observe greater swings (tending to forget the long periods of steadiness) although your overall win rate will be more accurate.Originally Posted by SteveO
First of all, in order to determine whether you really have more varience in your online games than in your live games you would need a very large sample from each of these areas. Otherwise you may just be experiencing varience in the amount of varience that you are observing. A completely different person could play a thousand games live and a few thousand online and experience larger swings in his live game.
Perhaps you are just experiencing a high upswing in your live game. Maybe your online bb/hour is more indicative of your actual skill level because you are getting in more hands in. So in reality your overall win rate online, although more streaky is closer to the mark.
Second, live players tend to be poorer players than online players. Your average 50nl player online has played thousands of hands. Your average 50nl live game player has not. Therefore a good player can more consitently beat a live game because of the larger gap between his play and that of the poor play of his live opponents while an online player will be more subject to the natural varience of the cards.
Also, an online player will tend to migrate to a level of play similar to his own because he is looking for competetion or more money. A live game player will be more restricted in the games he plays.
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