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As an advert, I took Spoon's suggestions to the next step. I looked at every showdown hand from one reg, noting ranges and tendencies throughout hands. I played this villain tonight on several tables. In 33 hands we faced off in, I won 17, lost 16, was up 40BB. Here's why.
I knew his ranges - he plays consistently: RFI =20% from EP/MP/CO, RFI = 28% BTN. He 3bets 4%. And I realized his value line (TPTK+) was bet 2/3 pot flop and turn, then 2/3-ish river depending upon board and how strong his hand was. He bets the same pattern with any A-high or K-high (naked) flush draw. With 2nd pair and worse, he cbets flop 2/3, checks turn. (He does c/r flops oop for value, usually with big hands.)
Hand 1
CO: 129 BB
Hero (BTN): 149.5 BB
SB: 136 BB
BB: 114 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
MP: 318 BB (VPIP: 22.14, PFR: 15.51, 3Bet Preflop: 7.24, Hands: 2,470)
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 J
fold, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 4 6 J
MP bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB
Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 3
MP checks, Hero bets 10 BB, fold,
As he checks turn, we're almost certain he doesn't have top pair or an overpair. He bets his sets using same value line, too. So we're not too concerned. We bet 2/3 pot, he folds.
Hand 2
BTN: 111 BB
SB: 248 BB
BB: 165 BB
UTG: 174 BB
MP: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 22.11, PFR: 15.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.26, Hands: 2,424)
Hero (CO): 150.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J
fold, MP raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB
Flop: (12.5 BB, 3 players) 3 8 A
BB checks, MP bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB, fold
Turn: (28.5 BB, 2 players) 8
MP checks, Hero bets 10 BB, MP calls 10 BB
River: (48.5 BB, 2 players) A
MP checks, Hero checks
This was a tough spot after the board double-paired, at least against someone who we don't have a definitive read on. But we discount 8x hands preflop as his MP RFI range is:
A9+, A2s+, 66+, any Broadway hand and other suited 9xs/87s type hands.
The majority of the 8's in his range are A8 which he would have value bet flop and turn. Same for Ax, and Ax can be ruled out completely on the river since he would certainly vbet the river. He can't have 33 as he doesn't open them in MP and, if he did have it, he would have value bet.
I'm not saying I played it perfectly, but an 8 was unlikely and an Ace impossible. There aren't draws. So what could he have?
66+
That's it. I don't think he's paying off my river vbet with 66,77, or 99, maybe he'd called with TT. So I check behind (to avoid folding out all the hands I beat), and I take down a nice pot that against anyone else would have put me to several tough decisions.
I'm off to do more Spoony-poker HW. This is great stuff!
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