NL25 AA decision on the turn

Opp is a TAG running 12/10/2.7 over 120 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($25.70)
UTG+1 ($12.25)
Hero (MP1) ($28.20)
MP2 ($24.15)
MP3 ($50.20)
CO ($13.90)
Button ($24.40)
SB ($37.50)
BB ($19.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
UTG raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, 6 folds, UTG calls $1.65

Flop: ($5.35) 5, 8, 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13.35) K (2 players)
UTG checks,

Hero checks behind? bet/calls? bet/folds? What amount do we bet?

I'm going to throw something out there instead of answering what I think about this particular hand. It would seriously help if when people were posting hands like this if they would give their own analysis instead of just dumping the hand and Villain stats. It would also be useful if people would stop posting results, including what action Hero decided to take here. The question shouldn't be "I folded, did I make the right play?" but instead "Is folding the right play?" since the first one has potential to skew the replies you get.

So here you know what process you need to go through to do analysis: find your pot odds, put Villain on a range, and decide if you can call. Go for it.

zoinks

I edited your post

I was thinking about it, but I decided not to edit the results
But since you say so, I'll edit the results out in the future

My analysis:
We're almost commited here, it can be a one-card flush draw some of the time (pair + flush draw for example)
Set is possible, but that's more of a cooler than anything since his range is heavily weighed towards AK type of hands

so... I'm leaning towards bet/call because a flush is less likely since his range contains more like AKs suited hands that didn't hit the flush rather than Axs that didn't hit the pair

how in the world does he c/c AK on the flop when the Kh falls on the turn?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how in the world does he c/c AK on the flop when the Kh falls on the turn?

To see if I check the turn behind and take a shot on the river?

since when do nits at 25nl float OOP?

He's not a nit, he's a TAG

but yeah, now that I think of it that line is not as likely and I previously thought, especially DURING the hand

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm going to throw something out there instead of answering what I think about this particular hand. It would seriously help if when people were posting hands like this if they would give their own analysis instead of just dumping the hand and Villain stats. It would also be useful if people would stop posting results, including what action Hero decided to take here. The question shouldn't be "I folded, did I make the right play?" but instead "Is folding the right play?" since the first one has potential to skew the replies you get.

So here you know what process you need to go through to do analysis: find your pot odds, put Villain on a range, and decide if you can call. Go for it.

Do you want to write a posting hands guideline (similar to the ones on 2p2)? I will sticky it.

I can write it if you don't want to, but you reply to hand histories much more and have a much better idea of what you would like someone to post when asking for help.

Originally Posted by iopq

He's not a nit, he's a TAG

Christ... 12/10 is a TAG??? Even FR, that looks like a nit to me... and if it's not, then I gotta hand in my nit card 'cause I used to run 15/12 or thereabouts...

makes his full range something like pocket pairs plus suited and unsuited paint...

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

So here you know what process you need to go through to do analysis: find your pot odds, put Villain on a range, and decide if you can call. Go for it.

I am going to do the homework then!

Set is very unlikely and more of a cooler as iopq said as 88 is at the right bottom of a top 10% range.

As spenda said, floating flop and check turn seems weird with AKo. I would say his range is made mainly of suited and painted hands which just hit the flush, and a lot of lower pocket pair.

I stoved this range and we are ahead (because we block a lot of Ax hands and the Kh is on the board), however it seems it is a way ahead, way behind situation (but I may be wrong) : Either he caught the flush or a set of kings and we are dead, either he has 99+ and is going for a two outers. Once we have discounted AKo here, there are no hands in villain's range that are behind us and that a decent villain will happily throw the rest of his 19$ with. Therefore want to control the pot here, keep worse hands with us by checking turn and call any river PSB or bet if he doesn't.

Any sense in my talk?

Board: 5h 2h 8d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.295% 31.01% 01.28% 423 17.50 { 99+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
Hand 1: 67.705% 66.42% 01.28% 906 17.50 { AcAs }

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Originally Posted by iopq

He's not a nit, he's a TAG

Christ... 12/10 is a TAG??? Even FR, that looks like a nit to me... and if it's not, then I gotta hand in my nit card 'cause I used to run 15/12 or thereabouts...

makes his full range something like pocket pairs plus suited and unsuited paint...

WTF are you talking about I run 15/10
a nit would be 5/5 or something

12/10 is quite tight at 6max I agree.
Not that it is the bible, but if you check this excellent text on 6max http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...ted-op-122212/ 13% is the UTG raising range for a TAG ...

Originally Posted by karnouk

12/10 is quite tight at 6max I agree.
Not that it is the bible, but if you check this excellent text on 6max http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...ted-op-122212/ 13% is the UTG raising range for a TAG ...

I play full ring if you didn't notice

ok sry

I check behind to get this to showdown on any non-heart river unless I think he could possibly ever have AK here or has cause to play back at me.

QQ/JJ with a heart call a river bet anyway.

If a lot of money goes into the pot, this hand does not end well for you.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Originally Posted by iopq

He's not a nit, he's a TAG

Christ... 12/10 is a TAG??? Even FR, that looks like a nit to me... and if it's not, then I gotta hand in my nit card 'cause I used to run 15/12 or thereabouts...

makes his full range something like pocket pairs plus suited and unsuited paint...

WTF are you talking about I run 15/10
a nit would be 5/5 or something

5/5 isn't a nit, it's a pure set-camper... that's pockets only (and would need to be closer to 6 to even be that...!)

5/5 is usually a shortstacker that waits for TT+/AQ+ to double up

Originally Posted by courtiebee

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm going to throw something out there instead of answering what I think about this particular hand. It would seriously help if when people were posting hands like this if they would give their own analysis instead of just dumping the hand and Villain stats. It would also be useful if people would stop posting results, including what action Hero decided to take here. The question shouldn't be "I folded, did I make the right play?" but instead "Is folding the right play?" since the first one has potential to skew the replies you get.

So here you know what process you need to go through to do analysis: find your pot odds, put Villain on a range, and decide if you can call. Go for it.

Do you want to write a posting hands guideline (similar to the ones on 2p2)? I will sticky it.

I can write it if you don't want to, but you reply to hand histories much more and have a much better idea of what you would like someone to post when asking for help.

Yeah sure, give me a few.

about time you played at higher stakes than 0.05/0.10 on tilt cause their rake is so high there!!!

Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx

about time you played at higher stakes than 0.05/0.10 on tilt cause their rake is so high there!!!

I agree, I went WTF when I figured out I've been paying 10% rake
although it made clearing bonus/getting rakeback easier
still not worth it though

btw, since I already got what I needed from this thread: villain check/shoved turn and showed JJ

i like checking and calling any bet on a non heart river

keep the pot small and this is easy to accomplish because of your position

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

i like checking and calling any bet on a non heart river

keep the pot small and this is easy to accomplish because of your position

ya rly pot controls

esssactly

if villain checks river... throw out a few bucks... enough for a weak hand to call.

Originally Posted by iopq

WTF are you talking about I run 15/10

LoL, you nit

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by iopq

WTF are you talking about I run 15/10

LoL, you nit :D

It's ok I run 19/15 in FR now and I am more successful because I keep isolating weak opponents and I play super positionally coming into the pot twice more on the button than UTG

Why is no one in this thread talking about preflop?

My FR days are long gone but if a 12/10 opens UTG he has a range that doesn't care if you 3bet pot or less than pot. His range is either folding to a 3bet or calling/getting it in.

If he calls a potsize 3bet, you can cbet the flop and have the stacks set up nicely to shove the turn.

Balance is overrated (especially at the micros) but if I try and put myself in villain's 12/10 shoes, alarm bells go off when you 3bet my UTG open to less than 3x my raise.

Also regarding the discussion about him having a FD on the flop:

How many unpaired hands are in villain's UTG opening range?

How many of these unpaired hands call a 3bet OOP?

How many of these hands are suited? (a lot, I agree)

How many of these hands are hearts?

How many of these is he c/c'ing rather than c/shoving on the flop?

There are a total of 3 combos in villain's range that I'm concerned with on the turn: K K, K K, K K

As played (with the too small 3bet pre), you can go either way here: b/c or check back/call any non river/bet if checked to.

I would probably check back assuming that underpairs won't give me any more action and only KK will get it in.

After seeing that he check/shoves JJ here I make a note and when in a similar spot vs the same villain it's an easy b/c.

Sugar Nut