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 Originally Posted by bdestefanis
i would still like to know why i can't calculate the odds correctly without using the reverse method
I always find that if i'm struggling with the calcs, it nearly always helps to write the event space out in full and then analyse each row.
simplified example - say you hold KK preflop and want to know the probability of an Ace hitting the flop
50 cards, 4 aces, so therefore 46 misses
AAA 4x3x2 = 24
AAX 4x3x46 = 552
AXA 4x46x3 = 552
AXX 4x46x45 = 8,280
XAA 46x4x3 = 552
XAX 46x4x45 = 8,280
XXA 46x45x4 = 8,280
XXX 46x45x44 = 91,080
Total 117,600
you can then work out the total for each relevant row as a %age and sum them.
can be a bit long-winded, but simple enough if you've got something like Excel, and i find being able to see it as a table makes it easier to see if you've gone wrong
hope this helps...
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