Newb Question: AQo vs 83o

Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

Let me see, you have 50 cards in a deck, 50 outs, you are drawing 5 cards and you need only 1 out? Obviously 0% chance that will happen, since you will never draw 1 out but 5 outs. Try typing 5 in required outs and see what happens.


Also, about bdestefanis pairing method, not sure where did 1/8 number come from? Chances to get your card paired are roughly (1:17.3) * 5, or to be exact 3/50 + 3/49 + 3/48 + 3/47 + 3/46.

Yeah apparently this thing actually calculates the probability of hitting EXACTLY the number of required outs you indicate in the input. I was misinterpreting "required number of outs" as "minimum required number of outs". So if you want the probability to hit one or more of your outs, you have to run the calculator for one required out, then two required outs, then three required outs, etc and add up all the results.

In my opinion in general we are more interested in the probability of hitting at least one out though.