Negative Variance

Hi all-
A bit of background first. I played alot of poker and used to post here on occasion but then a third kid arrived and the US ban happened at about the same time. So I withdrew my 10k bank roll from neteller (before lock out thank goodness). I left 150$ in my stars account for when I started to have time to play again. The 10 k roll was earned starting with two initial 150$ deposits. Now I wish I could say it was built up soley on poker skillz but alas I think at LEAST 80% was earned by simply playing break even poker and collecting every bonus I could find. When I quit playing (right after pp banned us players) I was playing 50 and 100 nl tables mostly on pp. So several months ago I started playing on stars again with the 150$. Worked it up to 950$ at the high. The last week has not been so good. Negative variance has kicked in with a vengence. Some of what has happened:

1. two 2nd nut straights running into the nuts
2. flopped two flushes with villian flopping a higher flush
3. four count em four set over sets with me being on the losing end
4. Normal suck outs ie all in with villian on a flush draw with one card to go and they hit the river. Nut striaghts/flushes called to the river which pairs of course....whatever

been down this road before. However here is the question: Do you start to play more conservatively ie alter your play to try and minimize loses until the variance shifts or move down in stakes. Case in point. Last night get J10 of clubs suited late position just limp. Flop comes 678 all clubs utg bets out i raise then get reraised big by the other player still in. I almost folded then reasoned a set or overpair probably has the same line. I pushed he called with K2 clubs. Stacked again. Third time this week flopped a lower flush. Does anyone consider even for a minute laying that hand down? Just curious. Probably post more often now that Im playing again and needing to play winning poker not just break even. Thanks in advance. Glad to be back.

Dalai

Originally Posted by dalai008

Do you start to play more conservatively ie alter your play to try and minimize loses until the variance shifts or move down in stakes.

I put this post in the beginner's section to help people understand variance.

Variance Tool for the Mathematically Challenged

Remember, you're just as likely to go on a 10k hand cooler right you've just had a 10k cooler as any other time. You need to only play levels for which you have enough br currently to live through ANOTHER bad spell and STILL HAVE ENOUGH LEFT to be properly rolled at the current level.

I moved up twice with 30 BI, but moved back down when I hit my stop-loss of 25 BI. It's just too easy to donk off 10 BI in two sessions and be barely rolled for the next level down.

About changing your game up during cold streaks: no, not just to play some "lower variance" style. First, it's probably a style you're not comfortable with, and you may play it badly for 5k hands until you get used to it. Second, poker is simply high variance no matter how you play.

Work on your game during cold streaks. I've seen posts from both TJ and Spoon talking about how they use "downswings" as incentives to get to studying more. Losing may just be variance. Or you may suck. If it's both combined, at least you can do something about the latter.

But I don't play the levels you have/do. So I may just be full of shit.

You KNOW the answer to this. You have to. You change your game if you identify leaks; you change your game according to the players, stack sizes etc. around you. You don't change your game because of individual instances of bad luck!

IF you suffer a load of bad beats and go on tilt, quit playing. If you don't want to quit, then yes, tightening up is fine for a bit to avoid marginal situations which may further tilt you or you may not be able to play well while tilted. But you can't play the hands all that differently when you do play them, otherwise tilt is beating you.

Thanks for the replies. Things have gotten a little better. I decided to keep with my game and the stakes. The roll is at 750$ which is still ok for 25$. Some ugly stuff is still going on though. Limp mp with A4s flop comes 44A I think Im good. Get an early bet I just call. Turn is a 7 I ckeck he bets I push he then slow rolls my ass and calls with 77. However other hands are starting to hold which is good. But here is one that just pissed me off I had to quit the game and cool off for the day. I get 99 early call a standard raise one caller behind as well. Flop is 459r. UTG bets I raise guy behind calls. Turn is a 2. UTG checks I bet out guy behind raises UTG folds . What do you guys do here? I think it is a clear overpair or two pair. I got the 2nd nuts only had I am behind is 53. Noboday calls pre flop raises with 53 right? Wrong guy betting did. And of course no pair on the river. I pretty much lost it. Thanks I will keep you updated.

dalai

Sounds like the ideal opponent to me!

I can certainly understand the frustration when you lost, but what more could you ask for in a player?

you should've raised more preflop. Also, if you are not capable of playing your marginal hands, you'd better off fold them preflop in my opinion. As for 99 hand, you should get all of your money in the pot ASAP, never thinking about folding your top set in these situations. Keep it in mind that we are NOT result oriented as long as you play your games all right.

Thanks for the input! It is appreciated. Wish I could say things are getting better but ahhhh no. BR down to 700$ In the last two days I have been two outered on three separate occasions all hitting after the money went in. Making the right calls though. Then yesterday the two hands below. Had to post the HH to prove they actually happened even after all the shit I have been dealing with. I actually considered (briefly) folding the first one on account of how bad I have been running. Figured I was up against a set or maybe the same hand? but I was wayyyyy ahead. The second just defies explanation. LOL lets just say that the hand he showed was not what I put him on. Its got to turn around soon. BR at 680 but I will get a 50$ bonus soon so that will help. Thanks for the support as always!


*********** # 16 **************
PokerStars Game #15582908386: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) -
2008/02/27 - 01:46:28 (ET)
Table 'Jihlava II' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: pokerlarry ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 2: jihad83 ($38.25 in chips)
Seat 3: GJ81382 ($38.30 in chips)
Seat 4: AKAWolfman ($13.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Cazy1985 ($13.60 in chips)
Seat 7: NuLan ($12.20 in chips)
Seat 8: AUSMICK ($4 in chips)
Seat 9: dalai007 ($13.75 in chips)
dalai007: posts small blind $0.10
pokerlarry: posts big blind $0.25
scottnot2: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dalai007 [Qc Ad]
jihad83: calls $0.25
GJ81382: calls $0.25
AKAWolfman: raises $0.75 to $1
Cazy1985: folds
Cazy1985 leaves the table
NuLan: folds
AUSMICK: folds
dalai007: calls $0.90
pokerlarry: folds
jihad83: calls $0.75
GJ81382: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Js Kh Th]
dalai007: checks
jihad83: checks
GJ81382: bets $3
AKAWolfman: raises $3 to $6
F5slopps joins the table at seat #6
dalai007: raises $6.75 to $12.75 and is all-in
jihad83: folds
GJ81382: calls $9.75
AKAWolfman: calls $6.75 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Js Kh Th] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [Js Kh Th Kc] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dalai007: shows [Qc Ad] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
GJ81382: shows [Ks Jd] (a full house, Kings full of Jacks)
AKAWolfman: mucks hand
GJ81382 collected $40.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $42.50 | Rake $2.10
Board [Js Kh Th Kc 3s]
Seat 1: pokerlarry (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: jihad83 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: GJ81382 showed [Ks Jd] and won ($40.40) with a full house,
Kings full of Jacks
Seat 4: AKAWolfman mucked [Qs Ac]
Seat 6: Cazy1985 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: NuLan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: AUSMICK (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: dalai007 (small blind) showed [Qc Ad] and lost with a straight,
Ten to Ace



*********** # 5 **************
PokerStars Game #15582930054: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) -
2008/02/27 - 01:48:22 (ET)
Table 'Polyxena' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Alex Reborn ($32.90 in chips)
Seat 2: rivrblindnes ($17.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Astro_Pete ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 5: hxcdrummer ($16.40 in chips)
Seat 6: jaws62 ($57.30 in chips)
Seat 7: Pilotsway1 ($45.50 in chips)
Seat 8: ecoradical ($42.50 in chips)
Seat 9: dalai007 ($13.65 in chips)
hxcdrummer: posts small blind $0.10
jaws62: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dalai007 [As Qs]
Pilotsway1: folds
ecoradical: calls $0.25
dalai007: calls $0.25
Alex Reborn: folds
rivrblindnes: folds
Astro_Pete: folds
hxcdrummer: calls $0.15
jaws62: raises $0.75 to $1
ecoradical: calls $0.75
dalai007: calls $0.75
dwntothefelt joins the table at seat #3
hxcdrummer: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Ad 6h 2d]
hxcdrummer: checks
jaws62: bets $0.25
ecoradical: raises $1.75 to $2
dalai007: calls $2
hxcdrummer: folds
jaws62: calls $1.75
*** TURN *** [Ad 6h 2d] [2c]
jaws62: bets $0.25
ecoradical: calls $0.25
dalai007: raises $10.40 to $10.65 and is all-in
jaws62: raises $10.40 to $21.05
ecoradical: folds
*** RIVER *** [Ad 6h 2d 2c] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jaws62: shows [7s 2h] (three of a kind, Deuces)
dalai007: mucks hand
jaws62 collected $30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.55 | Rake $1.55
Board [Ad 6h 2d 2c Jc]
Seat 1: Alex Reborn folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: rivrblindnes folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Astro_Pete (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: hxcdrummer (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: jaws62 (big blind) showed [7s 2h] and won ($30) with three of a
kind, Deuces
Seat 7: Pilotsway1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: ecoradical folded on the Turn
Seat 9: dalai007 mucked [As Qs]

buy in full. standard otherwise