KK's versus unknown villain on a bad board

[mieczkowusc]

Villain hadn't been involved in a hand in two orbits. Was this a smart move, or did he get the best of me?

Looking back at it, I don't like the call. If I would have done anything differently, I probably would have shoved over the raise, but something didn't feel right. An UTG limp felt like a pocket pair and for a player who hadn't seen a flop in a while, to come out betting was a red flag.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($3.13)
Hero (SB) ($3.32)
BB ($5.59)
UTG ($2.01)
MP1 ($7.52)
MP2 ($2.86)
CO ($3.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
UTG calls $0.02, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.22) 4, 7, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, UTG raises to $0.44, Hero calls $0.24

Turn: ($1.10) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.05, Hero ?

[oskar]

He might as well have TT,QQ, JJ.
I'm not thrilled with the hand, but I go broke on the flop.

Board: 4d 7d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.112% 53.60% 01.52% 17510 495.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 44.888% 43.37% 01.52% 14170 495.00 { AA, QQ-TT, 77-66, 44 }

And his range is likely to be wider than that.

Without reads - even if you had any significant stats - you don't know things like: can he get away from AK high? Does he defend c-bets? Does he raise on flush draws? Does he limp-call sc's?

[mieczkowusc]

He might as well have TT,QQ, JJ.
I'm not thrilled with the hand, but I go broke on the flop.

Board: 4d 7d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.112% 53.60% 01.52% 17510 495.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 44.888% 43.37% 01.52% 14170 495.00 { AA, QQ-TT, 77-66, 44 }

And his range is likely to be wider than that.

Without reads - even if you had any significant stats - you don't know things like: can he get away from AK high? Does he defend c-bets? Does he raise on flush draws? Does he limp-call sc's?

I figured that the shove over on the flop was probably the best play. I really need to start using PokerStove, but I am limited by having an older mac that can't run windows.

Looks like a missed opportunity then. Thanks for the stove numbers

[HarleyGuy13]

He might as well have TT,QQ, JJ.
I'm not thrilled with the hand, but I go broke on the flop.

Pretty much same. I would lean to think he may be with one of the three and impatient wanting to play a hand.

[AFchung]

i go broke on this flop too. looks like a set though

He might as well have TT,QQ, JJ.

do those hands open limp-call ? probably not

[oskar]

Absolutely they do.


Of course, he could have a couple of connectors with pair+draw too.

[sarbox68]

Yeah... you're going broke on this one, as there's a string of overpairs that he could play the same way. I would prolly 3-bet or push over the flop, esp with the draw on the board at these levels. If it's a set or some kinda flopped two pair (altho connectors might be a bit less likely for a maybe tight player opening under the gun...) then meh... nh and move on to the next. You can't run the risk of seeing sets everywhere when you get played back at at these levels. People will get aggressive with a lot worse hands than that.

[Robb]

Yeah... you're going broke on this one, as there's a string of overpairs that he could play the same way. I would prolly 3-bet or push over the flop, esp with the draw on the board at these levels. If it's a set or some kinda flopped two pair (altho connectors might be a bit less likely for a maybe tight player opening under the gun...) then meh... nh and move on to the next. You can't run the risk of seeing sets everywhere when you get played back at at these levels. People will get aggressive with a lot worse hands than that.

^^^this

I'll just add that you're typical TAGG can't lay down QQ or JJ type hands here, and a lot of folks will play like this with small pp's + SD (55 is OESD, 88 is gutshot). Sure, it's a set sometimes, but what Sarbox said is true on that score.

Step 1: Shove
Step 2: Reload
Step 3: Make note
Step 4: Stack him later

[mieczkowusc]

Step 1: Shove
Step 2: Reload
Step 3: Make note
Step 4: Stack him later

Done and done, my note taking has helped tremendously with focus and giving me a leg up when I sit down at a table. I'm working towards Step 4.

[speedcake]

ya, he has way too wide a range here to slow play this IMO. Without a note on his limp/calling, I think you have to stack off. Any pair 88+, any pair that makes him a straight draw, flush draws, Top pair. You will see far worse than that as well. Only 3 hands you dont want to see other than AA.

[triumphant cracker]

Yeah... you're going broke on this one, as there's a string of overpairs that he could play the same way. I would prolly 3-bet or push over the flop, esp with the draw on the board at these levels. If it's a set or some kinda flopped two pair (altho connectors might be a bit less likely for a maybe tight player opening under the gun...) then meh... nh and move on to the next. You can't run the risk of seeing sets everywhere when you get played back at at these levels. People will get aggressive with a lot worse hands than that.

^^^this

I'll just add that you're typical TAGG can't lay down QQ or JJ type hands here, and a lot of folks will play like this with small pp's + SD (55 is OESD, 88 is gutshot). Sure, it's a set sometimes, but what Sarbox said is true on that score.

Step 1: Shove
Step 2: Reload
Step 3: Make note
Step 4: Stack him later

thanx for the post..i had a simmilar situation last week...

and i am makin notes..

[NewbieNoOne]

I'm not sure what you mean about the "make note" part, but I would shove.

I'd guess since he's playing tight that he's playing some overpair or flush draw with AK AQ AJ.
Probably an Overpair like TT JJ or QQ cuz he might think you hit top pair only.

Shove to the max baby

[Robb]

I'm not sure what you mean about the "make note" part

The question is what his near min-raise on the flop means. If he uses this line for flopped sets, we want a note.

[a500lbgorilla]

I think it's actually a really good board. Lots of pair+gut shots, flush draws and other worse hands than KK that'll put their stack in.