preflop EV:
put in $12 to win $5.5
blinds have 3 combos of AA, and 6 combos of KK
that's a total combined chance of 1% of them coming back over the top
less than 1.3% because UTG+1 has a good chance to have an ace or a king blocker
since UTG+1 is somewhat positionally aware (15% steal) he's only opening like 5% UTG+1 (I did 5% in pokerstove, took out ace of diamonds, got 4.3%, then just left the aces without ace of diamonds and got 0.2%)

since he's opening so tight he has to be folding KK to a 3b for him to be ABLE to have a 92% fold to a 3b
so he's probably calling 20% of the time in this situation (his 92% fold comes from situations like raising from MP where his range is wider)

we're going to assume he 4bs every time he has aces
we win $5.5 79% of the time, we lose $12 21% of the time (1% cold 4b from both of the blinds)

4.345 - 2.52 =~ 1.8bb every time we 3b