Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
no, do not count those as outs

any of the 14 outs someone my think you have are to be HEAVILY DISCOUNTED in hand 1. I'm going to say we'll have somewhere from 20%-30% equity when we get the money in. The BEST equity we can have is going to be 41% against QQ not to mention we have 31% against KK and against AK we have around 28% equity and against AA we have 23% equity.

The guy limp-minraised PF and then overbet the flop, he's got a big hand and unfortunately for us all of those hands take away enough of our equity to make getting the money in wrong.
Spenda, the CO is all-in, and he needs only 40% equity to get it all-in good against all opponents on the flop.

I agree with your point about the equity against QQ+ and AK, but limp/rr pre is serious FPS, and I haven't personally faced opponents at 10nl and lower who could be disciplined enough to restrict their range. As soon as it's in their arsenal, their range tends expand, in my experience. I guess I'm not really convinced the limp/rr'er can only have one of 4 hands. But you usually have a good feel for this sort of thing, so I'll just say that the OP should probably lean toward your analysis, and "discount" mine.