Help fix leak

I've been working on my game, ID'ing leaks at 25nl. BJ suggested I work through my biggest losers at 25nl, try to ID trends. Here are two examples from 10nl. When I play this way at 25nl they turn into huge losers. I tend to not let go of overpairs soon enough at 25nl, stacking off against flushes and set, etc. However, at 10nl, there are times when laying down an over pair is just plain wrong.

Hand 1: villain is 60/15/1 over 50 hands. He's enough of a station that I think I'm ahead through turn. His PFR suggests he's in here w/ Axs, broadways, most pp's, some sc's. He looks like busted spade draw, maybe a combo hand. He could have a 7 or 6s8s or some other monster, but I believe I'm ahead of his range. River worries me, but I'm not laying this down for 40bb in a 160bb pot.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($14.26)
CO ($15.46)
Hero ($10.00)
SB ($18.13)
BB ($3.03)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, CO raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.95, CO calls $1.95

Turn: ($5.85, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.12, CO calls $3.12

River: ($12.09, 2 players)
CO goes all-in $9.49, Hero goes all-in $4.03

[Results Hidden]


Hand 2: Villain is 18/16/1.8 over 400 hands. Check on the turn could be a slow-played flush, but at 10nl they tend to value bet flushes smaller on the river, imo.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($8.34)
Hero ($13.95)
BTN ($16.39)
SB ($1.17)
BB ($4.13)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is CO
UTG raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.20, 2 folds, BB calls $1.10, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.65, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.02, BB folds, UTG calls $2.02

Turn: ($7.69, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.69, 2 players)
UTG goes all-in $5.12, Hero calls $5.12

[Results Hidden]



OK, I've given two hands, and tried to explain my reasoning. My work on HEM leads me to believe I'm +EV making big river calls/bets with overpairs at 10nl, but -EV at 25nl. Hands like these consistently win money at 10nl but consistently lose it at 25nl. Any thoughts?

i actually have the same problem only in my case i call thinking i'm more than likely beat but i wanna see... you know what i mean?..

i stopped doing it a lot...

Originally Posted by Robb

Hand 1: villain is 60/15/1 over 50 hands.

Hand 2: Villain is 18/16/1.8 over 400 hands. Check on the turn could be a slow-played flush, but at 10nl they tend to value bet flushes smaller on the river, imo.

Robb - You've written some great posts that I've learned from, but I also get the idea that you are fairly Aggro. I've been trying to play a TAGG game and I would hope to get away from both these hands.

Hand 1 - Based on the stats, he is loose and could have easily hit the flop big. You gave him every chance to fold and instead, he goes AI on the river. It's probably not a terrible call, but I'd put him on a set, fold, and move on. Believe me, I've called those river bets too many times myself and I'm still learning to fold.

Hand 2 - Based on the stats, he is tight and you probably shouldn't consider him a donkey. It looks like a flush draw that hit. This guy probably knows about value betting, but he has probably also read the advice that I have about 10NL, which is that it +EV to push a made hand. He disguised his hand on the Turn and shoved the River. With one pair, it's an easy fold I think.

But, I suck at poker and only play 2-tables at once.

I like both lines. Maybe bet a tad more on the flop in hand 2.

I bet you don't want to hear that response though. Is there anything specific? But like I said I play both the same.

Originally Posted by kmind

I like both lines. Maybe bet a tad more on the flop in hand 2.

I bet you don't want to hear that response though. Is there anything specific? But like I said I play both the same.

No, nothing specific. I know that I often push thin value correctly at 10nl, but I push thin/no-value into the wrong villains on the wrong boards at 25nl. I think 10nl villains show down with air/2nd pair so often for stacks, I forget that I probably need a read + solid evaluation of ranges to play an overpair for stacks at 25nl. I'm capable of that - I just don't do it enough.

Originally Posted by kmind

I like both lines..... But like I said I play both the same.

Interesting. I'm kinda dissappointed that more good players didn't chime in.

I like both. If you fold in these spots you'll be a losing player.

First one's fine.

Second one you should shove the turn to get value from any lone spades he can have since his equity just shot up.

at least 10 more BBs on the flop in hand 2

Finding the same problem moving to 25nl.

Was questioning my self whether their's value in my river calls with over pairs. Kinda sucks that all the regs said it was fine (if thats fine wtf am i doing wrong).

nothing to see here, move along.

Thanks, guys. I appreciate the critique. I feel like my 10nl poker has really improved these past few weeks as I've set to work ID'ing leaks.

I think my leak on these hands is ignoring the "signs of strength" like a check-raise on the flop or check/call flop bet turn. I need to carefully watch who is in the hand, use my reads, and plan my play all the way through the river before playing the flop.

Spenda, I don't know why I barely bet half the pot on Hand 2 - I'm a 2/3's PSB typically in that spot. Probably a brain freeze.

Originally Posted by jyms

nothing to see here, move along.

LoL.

vnh on the Spinal Tap "volume = 11" avatar.