I think you're original "stealing" range is good. But I think you are overestimating his 3bet flatting range. I think he's folding a lot of his stealing range, so my guess pre is:Originally Posted by Wndllll
Pff, well I fall squarely into noob category so I'll do my best.
30% pf button raise = 22+, Axs, 54s+ connectors, 53s+ 1 gap connectors, all broadways, either Axo or Kxs.
He'd probably call with 22-JJ, A2s - AQs, 78s+, broadways, ATo+, KTs
Based on his low AF (loosely) I think he'd call 66-JJ, ATo AJo AQo, 78d-KQd, KTd KJd KQd
I think he'd bet 66, 99, TT, JJ, ATo, AJo, AQo, 78d, 89d, 9Td, KTd, KQd
Combo's we're ahead = 6 x TT, 8x ATo , 8x AQo = 22
We're behind = 6 x 66, 6x99 6 x JJ, 5 x XXd= 23
Split pot = 4 x AJo
...
I'm trying here, so don't hurt me
75%: TT - QQ, AQ, AJs
25%: stealing hands he couldn't lay down
He's probably all-in w/ AA and KK. So what hands could have and be ahead with on the turn?
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