Hand Reading 4 Noobs, Part VII

Interesting hand: villain is 35/7/1.1 over 150 hands w/ cbet = 70% and steals from BTN = 31%.

Experts, let the noobs try putting villain on a range - give it 'til Sunday before pwn'ing the thread. Noobies, start preflop, give a range and narrow it - then base your final decision on what you think villain has.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($15.01)
UTG 1 ($7.16)
CO ($61.93)
BTN ($17.09)
Hero ($17.35)
BB ($9.24)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.65

Flop: ($2.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, BTN calls $2.10

Turn: ($6.30, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.15, Hero ??

Why didn't you let him bluff off some money on the flop?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Why didn't you let him bluff off some money on the flop?

I know what you think of this stat, but AF ~ 1. More likely to get chips in with a bet than waiting for a bluff, imo.

Originally Posted by Robb

cbet = 70% and steals from BTN = 31%.

Use good data when you have it. He bets this flop like 90% of the time.

Donking will blow him off air or get you raised by a polar range.

I don't use HUD right now, for whatever reason, so my grasp of those numbers isn't complete, but they seem to be clashing to me.
35/7/1, but c-bets 70% and steals from btn 30%? What am I not getting?

He c-bets more than I do!

This is why I don't like AF. It misses so much of the story. Best guess here is you have a guy who's learned to c-bet, also his nitty PFR suggests that he usually has a hand. Otherwise he's passive, straight-forward and misses value bets/stabs. Lots of guys like him play online 200NL (although they usually have a higher PFR.)

I for the life of me cannot think of a river card that the villain doesn't stack off with.

This is a WA/WB situation obviously. I think you're ahead on that turn more often than not. But Shoving doesn't buy any FE because there is no better hand than what you have that opponent is folding.

I think the Villain is raising any PP All the good aces, a good portion of the bad ones, SC's and I think the Villain is only folding his bad aces, but that would be like A6 A7 and A8, I think he calls with A9+

freak.. I'm so torn between all 3. Shoving doesn't feel good because you turn your hand into a bluff, calling doesn't feel good because villain stacks off on the river with 99% of the cards to come, folding doesn't feel good because you have 2 pair.

So I guess the overbalacing factor is that even if you're shoving with, and you don't get better hands to fold? you do get a pretty good range of worse hands to call so I shove.

Ok, I'll go to the Blackboard Mr. Robb.

I will make a FISHY attempt however futile.

Preflop:
Range after his preflop call.
QQ-, AK-. J10s+
Postflop:
After call.
QQ JJ TT. JTd+
Turn:
after bet.
QQ, JJ, QKd.

I know that's pretty narrow, but hell with it... That's all my little fishyself could figure out.

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

This is a WA/WB situation obviously. I think you're ahead on that turn more often than not. But Shoving doesn't buy any FE because there is no better hand than what you have that opponent is folding.

The shove is for value, not fold equity - at least, that was the point of poll question. Shove if you think it's likely to be the best way to win lots of chips.

I love how you made this HH about the least interesting street.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

This is a WA/WB situation obviously. I think you're ahead on that turn more often than not. But Shoving doesn't buy any FE because there is no better hand than what you have that opponent is folding.

The shove is for value, not fold equity - at least, that was the point of poll question. Shove if you think it's likely to be the best way to win lots of chips.

So I guess the overbalacing factor is that even if you're shoving with, and you don't get better hands to fold? you do get a pretty good range of worse hands to call so I shove.

That was my last sentence... IE Value.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I love how you made this HH about the least interesting street.

It's for noobies, and I thought the read was obvious on the turn. Villain's bet on the turn is horrible, almost regardless of what he's holding.

Pff, well I fall squarely into noob category so I'll do my best.

30% pf button raise = 22+, Axs, 54s+ connectors, 53s+ 1 gap connectors, all broadways, either Axo or Kxs.

He'd probably call with 22-JJ, A2s - AQs, 78s+, broadways, ATo+, KTs

Based on his low AF (loosely) I think he'd call 66-JJ, ATo AJo AQo, 78d-KQd, KTd KJd KQd

I think he'd bet 66, 99, TT, JJ, ATo, AJo, AQo, 78d, 89d, 9Td, KTd, KQd

Combo's we're ahead = 6 x TT, 8x ATo , 8x AQo = 22
We're behind = 6 x 66, 6x99 6 x JJ, 5 x XXd= 23
Split pot = 4 x AJo


Unfortunately I'm still learning this stuff - if someone was to tell me I was 50/50 with someone with a card to come, I guess I'd look at outs on the river - you have 2 aces and 2 jacks, if he's betting a FD he already has more outs and seems willing to put his money in.
Obviously I suck so these figures might mean f-all but seems that you're pretty much 50/50 ( If considering his low AF I'd put us more like 40/60). Seems to me that a call for SD value makes sense?

I'm trying here, so don't hurt me

Originally Posted by Fnord

I love how you made this HH about the least interesting street.

jesus dude let the guy have his discussion

I wouldn't 3 bet this preflop without a read that he calls 3 bets with very marginal holdings. If thats the case bet flop and check/call turn and boat up on the river. If he has a tight 3bet calling range I play pot control and go into check-call mode on the flop.

I'm certainly no genius at this stuff, and I don't play much short handed, but here are my thoughts...

The best hand you beat right now is A9. It wouldn't surprise me, but surely he would have reraised you on the flop with top two and even A6, so I'm ruling those out.

I'm ruling out AA, KK, QQ, and maybe even JJ & TT. He's reraising you preflop with the top 3 IMO and he might even reraise you with JJ and TT.

I also ruling out AK; I would figure him to reraise you preflop, and if he did smooth call your preflop reraise with AK then surely he would raise you on the flop with it, so again, no. I'm feeling the same way about most of the other Aces too. If he indeed does have an Ace, would he not raise you on the flop? I would think it very likely, so I'm thinking he doesn't have an Ace at all.

Would he reraise your reraise preflop with 66 or 99? I'm guessing him to sometimes reraise you with 99, but unlikely with 66, so I'm leaning towards a set of sixes if indeed he hit a set. That would often fit into a smooth call on the flop followed with aggression on the turn. Of course, he's calling your all-in with a set.

KQ diamonds? He would raise and not reraise from button with this hand so this is definately a possibility, but would he bet the nuts into you? Probably not, so I'm ruling this out as well.

KJ diamonds? Another possibility, but again it requires him betting the nuts at you when you've now shown weakness, so I'm ruling this out too. I'm feeling the same about any diamond suited K as well.

What about KJo with King of diamonds? I could see that as a likely hand for betting the turn, but is he that bad that he called your flop bet with King high and one diamond? Same thing for KTo.

What about K9o with K ing of diamonds? Would he call your reraise preflop with the dog and a King of diamonds? It certainly fits the call on the flop and a bet on the turn. I think this might be a possibility, and the one hand I might get called on the all in with while he is behind.

The only other range of hands I can see as a possibility are diamond suited connectors, in which you're beat. I'm thinking the lower they are the more likely he is to bet them, but I'm also thinking that the lower they are, the higher his bet might be.

The only hands that you beat that I think he's calling his whole stack off with are definately A9 and A6 and MAYBE K9o with King of diamonds. Anything else and he beats you. I don't think I can shove here with confidence.

Yeah most any suited connector sounds good here. add that to my list.
I still don't sign off QQ however. preflop he wouldn't have reraised. That wouldn't make much sense. Why? The only thing your gonig to call his reraise with is AA, or KK. so he would call the orignal reraise. And he might easily bet it if he has the Qd. Think about Hero's line:
Reraises an attmpted blind steal. Not to uncommon with mediocre hands.
Hero c-bets naturally, then shows weakness on the turn. Now villain throws out 1/2pot bet as a half ass representation of the flush.

I don't think that villain has QQ really, but I don't think it's ruled out. I think SCd.

Originally Posted by Wndllll

Pff, well I fall squarely into noob category so I'll do my best.

30% pf button raise = 22+, Axs, 54s+ connectors, 53s+ 1 gap connectors, all broadways, either Axo or Kxs.

He'd probably call with 22-JJ, A2s - AQs, 78s+, broadways, ATo+, KTs

Based on his low AF (loosely) I think he'd call 66-JJ, ATo AJo AQo, 78d-KQd, KTd KJd KQd

I think he'd bet 66, 99, TT, JJ, ATo, AJo, AQo, 78d, 89d, 9Td, KTd, KQd

Combo's we're ahead = 6 x TT, 8x ATo , 8x AQo = 22
We're behind = 6 x 66, 6x99 6 x JJ, 5 x XXd= 23
Split pot = 4 x AJo
...
I'm trying here, so don't hurt me

I think you're original "stealing" range is good. But I think you are overestimating his 3bet flatting range. I think he's folding a lot of his stealing range, so my guess pre is:

75%: TT - QQ, AQ, AJs
25%: stealing hands he couldn't lay down

He's probably all-in w/ AA and KK. So what hands could have and be ahead with on the turn?

Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

I wouldn't 3 bet this preflop without a read that he calls 3 bets with very marginal holdings. If thats the case bet flop and check/call turn and boat up on the river. If he has a tight 3bet calling range I play pot control and go into check-call mode on the flop.

I think of this as restealing, not 3betting. AJ is ahead of a lot of his 30% BTN steal range. I didn't want him to call, I thought he would fold. Oops.

But I'm not too worried even if his 3bet flat calling range is tight. AJ vs. Top 25% has 57% equity and vs. a tight 3bet flatting range (AJs+, TT-QQ, AQ) is 51%.

Robb, your thread is tearing me appart. "It's QQ" NO "it's SC's" no it...
Damnit man... you better be online at midnight.

Why didn't you let him bluff off some money on the flop?

because Robb's cbet% isnt much lower, either. if robb has played this villain before, it's pretty hard to ignore how aggressive robb is on flops. therefore, this bet doesnt give away much info from robb, either.

Because of the board, the hand villain is repping here (flush) is extremely unlikely. Ax can't be suited in a way that helps. Likely hands like KK, AA, TT are behind. KQs is possible, as are some T9, 98, 87 sc's. Villain's turn bet doesn't make sense. At the time I thought he had a combo hand and was hoping for a 4th flush card. His hand was a bit better than I thought, but still behind (about 25% equity).

For the results oriented: weaktight.com/338827

For betting purposes, making a PSB doesn't make sense because the river will be hard to bet whether it's a blank or a flush card. Making much less than a PSB gives odds for an overshove. Given that we think we're way ahead here (and villain obviously thinks his hand is worth betting), the shove is the only bet that makes sense.

Thankfully, he called it.

22% of us got this right.
I represent 50% of that number.

I'm 72% ready to play 1/2 6max! Somebody back me!

look to get into a lot of pots with this player, hes a complete fish. you can value own him with anything better than one pair if hes stacking off on that board.

I think 'complete fish' is a little harsh, he's got possibly 10 outs if he's behind and hero could be semi-bruffing a hand like AxQd!

As an aside, Robb, what's ur turn plan if the J doesn't fall? Your flop bet will have scared off basically anything that u are ahead of.