Hand Reading 4 Noobs, Part III

Y'all know the rules. Noobs and microplayas get first stab at the hand-reading response posts. Anyone can vote. I'll post the results in a few days - or whenever Deacon reminds me.

Villain is 58/13/2.3 over 125 hands. In your responses, say what you think Villain has and what Hero should do: call, raise or fold.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($57.22)
UTG 1 ($10.97)
CO ($19.86)
BTN ($57.67)
SB ($24.83)
Hero ($20.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB
4 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, SB calls $1.5

Turn: ($5, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($5, 2 players)
SB bets $1.75, Hero ??

Bet turn, call river as played

His range is huge

His range is so huge you should be betting the turn for value if hes floating you with crap. Call the river, if he hit 2 pair c'est la vie or has something like AJ, KJ or QJ of spades w.e I'm paying him off.

His range is so huge to me and I need a better read other then stats to narrow his range down. He obviously doesn't have a set and if he does it's played horribly. I doubt he fires a PP less then JJ here.

So a PP less then JJ counts as air. So that should be ruled out from the poll imo.

C'mon guys, don't pwn the thread b4 the noobs get a crack at it.

From my experience at this level a river bet like this usually means he hit the river card. At considering he called the pre-flop raise I would say there is a good chance it was sooooted. So with the call on the flop it wouldn't surprise me if it was J-10 spades.

I'm not going to overthink this one. Seems like 10NL 101 to me. Of course I'm only on 1oNL100.

Whoops, looked back on this and I was way off. Forgot there was a 10 on the flop. So we will say Q-J sooted.

I think turn has to be raised period. Betting gives you insight into what his range is and at the very least charges him to draw with one of the draws on board or some random crap. If V calls the turn bet you can look for a cheap showdown(i.e. a 1.75 bet into a $5 pot).

as it is I think V calls a flop bet assuming you cbet with air and has an underpair(6x or 4x, pp) or overs, or a draw, very wide range. Hero's turn check induced a semi bluff value bet on the river.

as it is call river

Pre-flop range is massive.

Flop check/call, then check on the turn, looks like he's chasing a draw - probably a flush draw given two spades on the flop.

Bet on the turn is only 35% of the pot and I think it is either a weak attempt to steal the pot with a busted draw - small pair or air - after seeing you show weakness by checking behind on the turn, or he has a J.

After 125 hands with him I'd hopefully have some sort of read, so if I thought he was stealing I'd obviously call (or raise?), but if I thought there was a more than 1 in 4.5 or so chance he had a J then I'd have to seriously consider folding. With no read, given the size of the bet I think there's a reasonable chance he's trying to get you to call, so I'm leaning towards a J. Which means fold.

its teh busted draw ldo!

Raise the river for value.

I'd talked myself into believing a KJ or QJ hand, but on second thought - that's just improbable. Given his stats he'd have done the PF limp and call, flop call and turn check with a huge range of hands (expecting BB PF raise and cbet not necessarily to represent too much strength). He could be sitting on a middling pair, missed straight, missed flush or even KQ with no problem. The only real thing preventing the river bet from meaning "So you didn't have anything anyway then" is that it's a bit too feeble. Bayes theorem really - very high probability that KJ or QJ would've played in this exact way, but a low probability that a huge range of hands would have ended up here as well greatly outweighs that. You're more likely to be up against middle pairs or missed draws than anything else - probably a hand that's both (like 76s).

Oh, and raise river. I like something less than pot sized which he might call. Maybe raise to $6 or so.

can i bet on the turn

i think we have him beat, but i would just call the river

Originally Posted by flomo

can i bet on the turn

Yeah, checking the turn to this clown is giving up way too much value.

Been said, but I hate the check on the turn.

Given that, I think we have to call the river here.

I voted busted draw or pair less than hero's.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Raise the river for value.

we have a winner!

Once again, fnord pwns the thread

Here are the results http://weaktight.com/172675