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 Originally Posted by AFchung
but we could totally made this a much more favorable situation by getting it in pre instead of getting tricky or whatever you were trying to accomplish by flatting preflop
...but if I shoved pre- and he called w/ AK then the flop would always contain an A... ldo
JK... but there actually was a reason behind posting this. Is KK always a "OMG I has KK... get it in pre-flop 150bb deep..." hand? Maybe so, and maybe I'm just over thinking this. And is this the type of vil to stop and think twice about, because...
1. This is the 1st time he's 3bet from the SB in 700 hands. Almost all his 3bets are from Co/Bu.
2. Looks like he's only 4bet 2-3 times in the same sample.
3. I'm not sure I put QQ in his 4bet range. So that leaves 8 combos of AK, 6 of AA and 1 of KK... which doesn't make AK that much more likely than AA. My thought process is that if I shove, I'm not sure he always calls w/ AK. So I figure that a) his 4-bet range prolly includes AK, b) his calling range on a shove may not, so c) if I flat the 4-bet and then the he doesn't spike an A on the flop, I'm ahead much more of the time than if he calls my PF shove. He may still cbet a non-A flop with AK as a cbet/bluff so may still snap off another bet. If he check/folds, meh, I still take down a nice pot.
4. If his 4bet range is AA,AK,KK I've got 47% equity and should def not fold to his 4bet (obviously). But shoving over against that range means putting money in while behind and esp if I think his shove calling range leans a lot more towards AA than AK.
100bb deep, I'd prolly just go meh and pull the trigger. 150bb deep I thought it made sense to actually think through this for a minute.
Maybe that wasn't the best for me .... but that was at least my thought process.
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