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 Originally Posted by JKDS
villain is a 54/18 over 50, he has no understanding of relative head strength and enjoys betting marginal hands.
ok, i think this ones finished and theres some things to be discussed. again, i am no master of poker.
1st off, the actual decission
I have an amazing "omfg, howd you get that read" read on villain. its only a sample of 50 hands, but from what ive seen i determine the read to be fairly accurate. So lets use it.
Villain checks...
awesome, can pretty much say that villain's range is now draws, air, and the shittiest of shitty pairs (maybe like 22 or bp or something). What we do now was brought up by xxstacksxx....
By the FTP, we make money when villain makes mistakes. So what do we want him to do?
if we bet
pairs: we want all of these to fold since
draws (15ish outters): these have 50ish+ % equity, even though they only seem like 9 outters so having these hands fold is great.
air (6outters): we're ahead! we want calls
if we check
pairs: have fairly stable equity against us, we're drawing to 6ish outs. infinite odds, villain made a mistake when we decided to check instead
draws: if villain is stationy, all we do is put money in when we're behind, so checking and maybe bluffing the turn is better where we have better equity provided villain misses
air: they get a free card/chance to bluff us
so now, since villain has shown little interest, we have two cases. bet if we up against more weak pairs that fold/air and check if theres more draws/pair that call in his range.
i opted for bet, and made it 1.75, villain folds. This is large enough to make weaker pairs not want to hand around and to give 6 out hands poor odds. other draws call regardless probably.
2nd thing to talk about, the discussion
@clvacva: see stack's reply, we want these to come along but we want to charge them to do so. villain is NEVER c/c this flop with top pair, that is to say the read implies he'd be much more inclined to donk bet it. also as stated, flush draws have more equity than us so we'd prefer they fold as well as all pairs.
@donkafelts: You're right, villain isnt likely thinking "hrm, your range has many kings in it" however he is thinking along the lines of "did i hit" in which case we can judge his range and actions and see how likely it is and then go from there on how we fair against that range.
@trilerian: im almost always raising A9s on the btn against a fishy limper, but you're right, hes a fairly easy to read type and i expect to wtf pwn him postflop alot and im in position so i can do so more often.
@extremophile: easily the best essay, i feel its a valid other way to go about analyzing these. perhaps next hand thats posted ill see how it works out as im too lazy now
@xxstacksxx: thx for the input. something i didnt talk about in my answer was the value in "getting" villain to bluff and that can certainly be more EV than just betting and getting 1 street from his air.
@robb's stuff: everyone should read those. EVERYONE
@outlaw: regarding the point of the thread, id like to have just a topic where everyone is like "heres what our gameplan is" just so someone who's never heard of cbetting can get a feel for it. obv theres more situations than there are wii's in the U.S., so imo getting ppl to understand how to approach these situations should be the ultimate go
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