Blind stealing goes wrong (10NL)

I think I played this hand pretty badly. Villain was running at 21/3/3.5 over about 40 hands. I wanted to throw out a flop c-bet, but it seems like we have a fair amount of equity and getting re-raised off the hand is bad. I don't like my turn line or the river line, and I think the river line is probably my biggest leak at the moment.

I'm very keen to learn what to do in these situations. If anyone can point out some material that covers it, I would be very grateful.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($11.35)
MP2 ($10.40)
MP3 ($11.25)
CO ($10.80)
Hero (Button) ($9.45)
SB ($12.70)
BB ($11)
UTG ($10.65)
UTG+1 ($9.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
6 folds, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) J, Q, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.90) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($1.70) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2

Total pot: $7.70 | Rake: $0.35

turn is totally fine you have the odds to peel your gutter and the ace is good 90% of the time (or at least you split AJ)
the problem with your river bet is you'd probably cbet a flush draw so you can't rep a flush when it comes in

Originally Posted by iopq

turn is totally fine you have the odds to peel your gutter and the ace is good 90% of the time (or at least you split AJ)
the problem with your river bet is you'd probably cbet a flush draw so you can't rep a flush when it comes in

Just to make sure, the flop check is fine as well?

Originally Posted by Nakamura

Originally Posted by iopq

turn is totally fine you have the odds to peel your gutter and the ace is good 90% of the time (or at least you split AJ)
the problem with your river bet is you'd probably cbet a flush draw so you can't rep a flush when it comes in

Just to make sure, the flop check is fine as well?

well it's fine, but sometimes betting is better

if he's the type to fold 99 on that board then it's a bet, if he's the suspicious type that never folds a pair on a board like that, then a check is better

your consideration for your gutshot is like secondary
it's more important to know whether we're getting raised off the best hand by air
even if you make a straight it's like usually he has nothing anyway

so basically you want to know how often he's c/ring you on the flop and how often he's c/fing

bet the flop, stop 4x'ing the button, hard to rep a flush when you didn't cbet

I don't understand why you checked the flop with 3 scary cards for SB on board.

Originally Posted by Nakamura

I wanted to throw out a flop c-bet, but it seems like we have a fair amount of equity and getting re-raised off the hand is bad.

Unless you have a specific read, I really wouldn't be worried about getting bluff-check-raised by a 21/3, regardless of AF.

If he can read hands at all, he would know that you're betting your flush draws on the flop almost always.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

bet the flop, stop 4x'ing the button, hard to rep a flush when you didn't cbet

Sorry to hijack thread but this is a good opportunity to get something cleared up I've been wondering about.

Spenda, I've watched a few of your videos where you advocate making a smaller button open than your normal open. The problem I have with this is when it is applied to the micro stakes. If I'm not mistaken, the reason for why we want to open for a smaller amount from the button is because our button range is wider and so we expect to get 3-bet/played back at more often and will have to fold most of the time this happens. So it seems to imply that for this strategy to make sense our opponents must not only be able to recognize that our button range is wider, but also know how to correctly deal with it (3-bet us more from the blinds).

So my conclusion is that, in the micro stakes, we lose more in value than we save when they 3-bet and we fold when making a smaller button open.

Is there anything wrong with this reasoning or any other important factors that I overlooked?

Opening smaller from a theoretical standpoint should not get us "played back at" more, it should be the opposite, our opponents should call more and 3bet less. That means we get to play more pots IP against bad players, never a bad thing.

Originally Posted by kfaess

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

bet the flop, stop 4x'ing the button, hard to rep a flush when you didn't cbet

Sorry to hijack thread but this is a good opportunity to get something cleared up I've been wondering about.

Spenda, I've watched a few of your videos where you advocate making a smaller button open than your normal open. The problem I have with this is when it is applied to the micro stakes. If I'm not mistaken, the reason for why we want to open for a smaller amount from the button is because our button range is wider and so we expect to get 3-bet/played back at more often and will have to fold most of the time this happens. So it seems to imply that for this strategy to make sense our opponents must not only be able to recognize that our button range is wider, but also know how to correctly deal with it (3-bet us more from the blinds).

So my conclusion is that, in the micro stakes, we lose more in value than we save when they 3-bet and we fold when making a smaller button open.

Is there anything wrong with this reasoning or any other important factors that I overlooked?

I had this misconception for a while - spenda and some others beat my head against a wall until I got it.

We've got the BTN - we want to play as many streets as possible there, hopefully getting to the flop and turn a lot where the big mistakes can happen. The smaller bet size get us in more pots, and even allows us to open a bit wider range. Sure, we get 3bet, but our smaller PFR makes it more likely that we have implied odds to continue. Abusing position is even more ++EV in big pots, where it turns into a game of pot-commitment chicken.

And every pot we're in, even if it's close on equity, we have more chances to make better decisions for big stacks of chips than our opponents the more streets we play. Hence, we open a wider range and play back/call wider and lighter when we get into pots.

Now those two paragraphs sound agro in the extreme - remember, part of outplaying them postflop is folding correctly (and a LOT), but jamming when they're weak or are likely to have the second best big hand.

There's just such a large misconception about blind-stealing and getting played back at.

I have to beat this into a lot of players heads but it's not a bad thing that some fish never folds his BB to your button steal. It's probably the best situation imaginable when a fish who sucks at poker is OOP with a ridiculously wide/weak range. I cannot think of a much better spot to constantly put myself in.

Not to mention if they aren't folding to 3x they ain't folding to 4x and if they have auto fold clicked or are going to fold, 4x or 3x doesn't matter. We play the same hands in the same position for less money, and if your a proponent of SPR you also set up more favorable numbers for those more marginal hands that need several streets of action.

Sorry to say SPR in the BC Spenda

hmmm ok so I missed some really key points to consider but I'm still not entirely convinced.

In my mind the situation is clearer if we ask ourselves why we are making the raise in the first place. If our main goal (and most of our profit from the raise) is related to stealing the blinds, then making a 3x raise risks less while getting most of the folds that a 4x raise would get. This seems like it would occur more often in games at 50NL+ and less at micros since at micros you have looser opponents who call raises from the blinds more often.

If we're raising for value and hoping for a call where we can play a large pot in position then wouldn't we want our raise to be bigger since this results in bigger pots that we win. For example, we raise 4x and get called by the bb. on the flop he checks, we cbet and take the pot. This is a fairly common situation and we just won an extra bb because of our larger raise. Over time that probably adds up, and we're not losing much in terms of being played back at since at the micros this is very uncommon.

On the other hand, its much more likely that we have a marginal hand where we just want to win the blinds than it is we have a hand we want to raise for value.

Gah, still a little confused..

kfaess: when are we "stealing" more, when we're on the button or when we're UTG?

we'd prefer a smaller size when we're stealing and a bigger size when we're raising for value (hoping to get called)

another reason that IOPQ touched on is their range for continuing is generally stronger than our range for opening. Therefore we're minimizing the PF equity battle by opening smaller OTB. When we're opening to 4x UTG we're exploiting the PF equity battle b/c our range is stronger than their range for continuing.

I'll add a bit to what spenda just said 'cuz this confused me, too, for a long time. Part of investing more monies in LP is getting called from the blinds and ditching our hand to obvious strength. If we open a wide range otb, this will happen fairly often and we get away from these hands for less.

One reason position is such an asset in NLH is because two unpaired cards hit the flop about 1/3 of the time and miss the flop 2/3's. Since there are only a couple of hands like AA and KK that don't really need to flop to help them, we can count on villains who call from the blinds to catch air on hands like AJ a lot. Every additional combo we add into our button range profits from acting second after hands that were "better" preflop when those hands miss the flop.

So our investment on the button is smaller, but the total number of chips we get to put in play actually increases when you take all the streets into account. And we get to keep the initial investment small while we're evaluating how strong our oop villain is likely to be.

EZ game (otb).

Thanks for the responses guys.

Does it make sense to taylor the size of the raise to the players in the blinds? For example, say you have two loose passives (40/5/1) in the blinds. I think it would make sense to use a 4x raise here because a lot of our profit comes from c-betting flops that they miss and taking it down, so we want a larger average starting pot. It might also be correct to use a 4x raise when there is a loose passive and a nit in the blinds. The nit will fold often but we maximize value from the loose player by playing larger pots.

If we have a TAG or LAG to our left then they are more likely to play back at us, but probably still fold almost as often to a 3x raise than a 4x raise. We will also have to fold against these players on later streets more often, and so making a smaller bet PF saves us money when we fold.

Do you guys always use a 3x button raise or do you sometimes use a 4x raise if there are poor players in the blinds (we're talking micro stakes still)?

I use the same raise for every open, and I use 3x otb. The profit from having someone laggy in the blings is from them playing a wide/weak range postflop. The 3x raise will get them in more often and we'll be able to get the value from them later.

If you're going to use different raise sizes, you need some way to mix it up so your not completely readable.

In live games all my opens are 4x (bigger for 1/2)

If someone defends the blinds too often or poorly, then you want to play a big pot against them.

it's not hard to play a big pot just b/c you missed out on 2bbs PF

I open for 2.5x OTB against tags because it tilts them

Originally Posted by Nakamura

I'm very keen to learn what to do in these situations. If anyone can point out some material that covers it, I would be very grateful.

Here are some thread links from op thread (2nd post is a collection of threads/posts I've found helpful. I've given a broader selection of links that you asked, but most revolved around blind steals, blind defense, etc.

Originally Posted by Robb

Spoon's Good Example of When to Cbet. Also see A Good Example of When Not to Cbet. These are two threads that got me thinking more coherently about cbetting and started me working on my game. My work on cbets is linked below.

Restealing with the Best Hand. Classic Fnord. Succinct. Thought-provoking. Spot on.

Fnord's Implied Threat thread. A simple example turns into a great discussion between FTR icons like Rondavu, Lukie, and Warpe. They talk about how to play in position after a cold call against a Kinda TAggy player on an Axx flop. Fnord suggests a raise and then asks what kind of hands would make that suggestion correct. A great thinking exercise. If you want to think like these winners, that is.

Fnord's Leading into the preflop raising thread is another great flop-play thread like the one above. Same discussants as above with BankItDrew and Miffed joining in. Warning: will make you think correctly about flop decisions.

Spoon's Betting Against a Flush Draw thread, with excellent discussion. Read BankitDrew's analysis toward bottom. Warning - short!!

Marginal hand out of the BB against a limper or two by DaGoat. Good conversation about how to play the Big Blind Special. Read Miffed posts half way into thread and final comments from Miffed and Goat.

Nutshino's Picking off Steals gives nice insight into when villain's line makes no sense compared to the board and game setting. Short, with input from Renton and Fnord.

@ your title - blind steals CANNOT go wrong. This took me a while to realize, but when they lose respect for your steals, you have a chance to get paid off big when you hit a big hand. How do they lose respect for you? They play back and you fold. Folding an obvious steal on the flop or turn when it's obvious villain's not folding is a good thing. We lose some chips now but lose respect, and encourage that villain to play back with a wider, weaker range, hands he'll play on more streets with less equity. It requires an adjustment, but it's fairly straightforward how to exploit this if it happens.

OK, thanks to everyone for the input. I think I understand why raising less is better otb. Thanks Robb for the links.

im kinda drunk right nwo but i think its fine except when you make that river raise bcause it's liek wtf are you trying to do the spade hti and he bet anyway its not like hes' gonna fold hardly shit

edit: also ppl telling you to bet the flop need to fuck off you've got like a mililon other hands you can blfuff with aon the flop

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

im kinda drunk right nwo but i think its fine except when you make that river raise bcause it's liek wtf are you trying to do the spade hti and he bet anyway its not like hes' gonna fold hardly shit

edit: also ppl telling you to bet the flop need to fuck off you've got like a mililon other hands you can blfuff with aon the flop

spoony's back in the BC, whoa, that's pretty cool