I'
m just going to jump in and repeat a comment I have managed to come with a couple of times recently (some in person in sweats, some in posts). Not directly but indirectly related to the subject at hand.
It's blatantly incorrect to state that opponents "only think on
level 0". Pretty much all opponents think on levels 0, 1 and 2. The thing is that they
don't do it very
well.
Sometimes I run into a situation where I end up telling myself that my opponent fails to think on
level 0. It can be a situation where there's four to a
straight and four to a
flush on the board and the opponent is betting his
second pair on the
river for value. I know the opponent and he never bluffs and I know that a
second pair hand for value is in his
range and yet I find that I can't
call with a hand I think is better simply because there are so many ways he can accidentally have a
flush or
straight that beats me.
More appropriate to the discussion is expanding on my statement that everyone thinks on levels 0, 1 and 2. I'll use my dad as an example. He's bad at poker. He normally gets
level 0 pretty right. He knows what beats what, he can read his hand and he understands relative hand strength some of the time. Does he think on
level 1? Let's ask him - do you ever make decisions based on what the other guy has? Yeah, sure - sometimes he bets big, this must mean he has a big hand and I get out of the way.
Level 1 thinking. How about
level 2? Do you ever make decisions based on what you reckon the opponent thinks you have? Yeah, sure. Sometimes I
flop a
set or a
full house. I've noticed if I just bet out they tend to
fold because they think I have a big hand, so I
check/
call and win a bigger pot that way, if they
don't outdraw me.
Level 2 thinking.
The question with thinking in levels is not that bad players
don't think on certain levels, it's the fact that they
don't think about poker on levels particularly
well. It's the quality of thinking that's the issue. It's just a really similar argument with
range balancing and merging etc. The trick is not to dismiss people as incapable, because if you explain it to them they will understand on a superficial
level and go away and misapply it. The trick is to understand how people think about poker, exactly in which ways they are bad and how to
exploit those.
It's tempting to jump to the conclusion that because all opponents are terrible you just need to play a simple
ABC poker game and profit will follow. This may be true, but it's bad for two reasons. First it's bad because you're not maximising your
edge - you could win more by knowing exactly how these players play badly and exploiting it, and second it's bad because you're not practicing identifying and exploiting edges - something that'll only become more important and less obvious when you move up. Opponents need respect at least to the degree that we accept that even the worst (one could argue especially the worst) opponents are worth learning about so we know the exact strengths and weaknesses of their game.
Isn't cbetting a
calling station on a good cbet board an obvious example of someone exploiting you without them knowing it?