Any tricks or systems?

Without having any reads on a villian, does anyone have a system or trick to know when your good hand is beat?

For example, if I have a full house, but not the nuts, is there any way to reliably predict when I'm beat?

Tonight my system could have been as simple as don't call any all-ins when there's a pair on the board (unless I have the nuts of course). I have to think that this system is WAY too simple and WAY too cautious. I think it will make me give up a good hand too often.

Any suggestions?

First off, no there is no system imo.

When I have no reads on someone, I play against them as if they were a "standard" player for that level.

You can kind of think of the value of hands vs certain kinds of boards, i.e. top pair isn't great on a 4 flush but this isn't absoute. I used to say to myself "I'll never stack off with a jack high flush again!" I was very wrong to think this way. Think about your opponents possible holdings given the board and the action, that's really the best you can do.

Here's a trick: think about the game, your opponents, the betting, recent hands, and the stacks. Then make a wild-ass guess.

In general, absent reads, I'm willing to stack off with any set or flush and nearly any straight (it's easier to tell if you're beat with straights, typically). I'm willing to stack off most times with 2 pair (70% maybe) . I'm often willing to stack off with TPTK or an overpair that's QQ or better (maybe 30%).

The average winning hand in HoldEm is two pair. If you've got something better than that, you need to be willing to felt it.

Originally Posted by Robb

Here's a trick: think about the game, your opponents, the betting, recent hands, and the stacks. Then make a wild-ass guess.

Lately all of my wild ass guesses have been based on greed. I think I've got a great hand and this fool wants to give me all of his money. Wheeee!!! But then I get stacked.

I got whooped in two big hands (25NL) yesterday and this is the basic betting pattern on the river (different villians).

ME: Bet 1/2 of the pot.
Villian: Reraise pot.
ME: Quickly hit reraise button for double his bet.
Villian: Quickly raise all-in.
ME: Ponder a bit and then call.

I suppose I could avoid calling four bet all ins. Yesterday it would have saved me big, but I'm not sure if it would be smart in the long run.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm willing to stack off most times with 2 pair (70% maybe) . I'm often willing to stack off with TPTK or an overpair that's QQ or better (maybe 30%).

I will seldom stack off with anything less than three of a kind, and when I do it's based almost entirely on my read on the villian. I'm a fairly aggressive bettor and the villians reactions to my bets USUALLY let me know when I'm beat with any less than three of a kind.

Sorry mate, but I have to break it to you - there aren't any tricks or systems to learning how to play better. It's a matter of conceptual understanding and sheer bloody hard work.

It seems that you're thinking incorrectly about the game (through no fault of your own of course) - you need to think about your opponent's range - start by choosing the best move based on a specific breakdown of your opponent's possible hands rather than your own hand strength.

A good place to start is to put your opponent on a range of hands on every street.

Originally Posted by poker_pup

Originally Posted by Robb

Here's a trick: think about the game, your opponents, the betting, recent hands, and the stacks. Then make a wild-ass guess.

Lately all of my wild ass guesses have been based on greed. I think I've got a great hand and this fool wants to give me all of his money. Wheeee!!! But then I get stacked.

I got whooped in two big hands (25NL) yesterday and this is the basic betting pattern on the river (different villians).

ME: Bet 1/2 of the pot.
Villian: Reraise pot.
ME: Quickly hit reraise button for double his bet.
Villian: Quickly raise all-in.
ME: Ponder a bit and then call.

I suppose I could avoid calling four bet all ins. Yesterday it would have saved me big, but I'm not sure if it would be smart in the long run.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm willing to stack off most times with 2 pair (70% maybe) . I'm often willing to stack off with TPTK or an overpair that's QQ or better (maybe 30%).

I will seldom stack off with anything less than three of a kind, and when I do it's based almost entirely on my read on the villian. I'm a fairly aggressive bettor and the villians reactions to my bets USUALLY let me know when I'm beat with any less than three of a kind.

I'm piss-poor so far, but I tend to play as if I am playing myself... would I call that or shove that into the pot?

That gives me at least a baseline to start with.

Wow, that's a tough one. Villain obviously has something and I hate thoughtless all-ins. Does the board give any clues to what he has? I mean if I have a boat (999JJ) and the board is JJ99 (I have 9 10), I'm gone.

Boats are obviously great hands, but they are sinkable. I hear bad beat stories at tournaments and most of them are some kind of "my boat was beaten by a bigger boat!"

In your case, this guy is in way to big of a hurry to get all of his chips in.

Originally Posted by poker_pup

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm willing to stack off most times with 2 pair (70% maybe) . I'm often willing to stack off with TPTK or an overpair that's QQ or better (maybe 30%).

I will seldom stack off with anything less than three of a kind, and when I do it's based almost entirely on my read on the villian. I'm a fairly aggressive bettor and the villians reactions to my bets USUALLY let me know when I'm beat with any less than three of a kind.

Of course, stacking off is about reads, the board, stack sizes and image, among other considerations. But if you're playing microstakes and not stacking off with overpairs, TPTK and TP2K at least some of the time, you're not actually making reads. You're playing scared money, imo.

Examples from yesterday's 1.8k hand session of 10nl 6max (all of them require an LoL and a note):
1. I called an all-in 3bet preflop with KK, villain shows down 55.
2. I called an all-in flop rr on a squirrelly villain w/ KQ on a Qxx board (he was about 65bb stack at that point). He shows down QT - not suited, not connected to a draw - I hadn't been maniac loose or agro - nothing. Just lost his mind and fired an all-in rr with top pair no kicker.
3. I rr'd a preflop 3bet all-in w/ AA, got called down by T2s, and the board comes J8739 to make his straight on the river. It stung for a half a second until I just started laughing and shaking my head. He's a donator. I just hope he last long enough to donate a coupla stacks to me!
The above are all from memory, and just from yesterday. I could come up with dozens more - here's a few...
4. I played big pots of 50bb+ where the board didn't help either player with KK over QQ, JJ over 99, and got 99 in under TT. I had AA against AK on a K-high board. In all of these hands, villains put in raises that had me thinking long and hard about folding, worried about sets or big draws that might have come in.

With villains like this firing all-in bets preflop and moving in on the flop, why wouldn't I be willing to stack off with TP2K like example 2? Or play for half my stack with an underpair to the board? If you're watching the showdowns that occur at your tables, you should be able to see some amazing crap get shown after all-ins or "hero" calls of all-ins. It doesn't take a soul reader to find plenty of places to push TPTK 3 value bets deep into a hand, which is pretty much the whole stack, or to call a turn rr all-in. If you don't like shoving all the chips to the middle with QQ on a 9-high board, maybe consider playing pinochle instead.

Originally Posted by Robb

Examples from yesterday's 1.8k hand session of 10nl 6max (all of them require an LoL and a note):

Quiet day at the Robb household yesterday?

Have you ever thought about playing in the Gauntlet tourneys? They are a blast.

Robb, I''ve been seeing crazy crap too lately. If you're firing away and it's working, then I'm all about it. I've played tables like this a lot in the last week.

Eventually, someone is going to catch you though, shouldn't you reserve the All-In move for a better hand? Or, over time you are finding yourself to the up side?

T2s LOL!