First, before I give the results, let me explain why guessing set/2pr in the poll is incorrect. Preflop he could have lots of junk, but very few high quality hands, with 88 about the best paired hand possible. He's getting better than 2 to 1 on his preflop bet.

After the flop, though, there's probably less than a 5% chance he has a set. Seriously, there are like zero villains at 10nl that can fast play a set. I just put in a PSB, I obviously like my hand, and the raise is likely to get me to fold the exact hands a set wants to play against.

Two pair is a bit more likely, but he can only have it with Kx or T8, neither of which can be suited in a way that helps. And those combinations are possible but somewhat unlikely.

So, if he doesn't have a set or 2 pair (I'd guess about a 15-20% chance of one or the other), the only hands hero can be behind against are combo hands and big draws. The most obvious hands he can have are TPTK or Kx, and our hand plays well against them. Two clubs is unlikely, since he would need to have called with Qxs pre (QJs is likely, but none of the others are) or 97s, 67s or worse. And I think people forget how unlikely it is to call with sc's and actually hit a 4 flush. He may have 67s, but more than 3 out of 4 times, it will be the wrong suit.

I'll admit what I said to TJ is true: the +EV is thin. But this a shove, imo. And +EV against a complete unknown 10nl player.

http://weaktight.com/168544

You can see for yourself, and laugh, at my read and how I lost a buyin