Another Hand Reading Exercise 4 Noobs

Villain just sat down. Never seen him before. Let's give the noobs and micro players a chance to post their thoughts first on what Hero should do. Everyone can vote in the poll.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($16.10)
UTG 1 ($18.49)
CO ($16.44)
BTN ($19.55)
Hero ($12.20)
BB ($10.91)
[UTG 1 posted $0.1]

Pre-flop: ($0.25, 6 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, UTG 1 checks, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.1, Hero raises to $0.5, BB calls $0.4, UTG 1 calls $0.4, BTN folds

Flop: ($1.7, 3 players)
Hero bets $1.6, 1 fold, UTG 1 raises to $6.4, Hero ??

I'm going to assume he's relatively honest (bets when he has a hand, doesn't when he doesn't) at the outset.

He checks his dead money UTG - I'd have expected him to raise AA, KK, AK, KQ type hands so I'll rule those out. Hero raises in SB with BB one caller - UTG now knows that he will be last to act in all later betting rounds. He has position - and chooses to call. Based on this I think his range has a lot of medium pocket pairs and suited connectors, including also some Axs and Kxs hands.

The flop comes with both good flush and straight draws in his range. QcJc and Jc9c are both certainly possible, as are 9c8c. KK is unlikely, but both TT and 88 are very possible. KT is possible but a bit unlikely, as is K8. I'd say they could have happened only really if suited.

Hero is showing strength and I'd expect this raise to be done with something more than air. I don't think I'd particularly put KJ or KQ in his range, and I've already decided for myself that he most likely wouldn't have PF checked with AK or KQ. Out of 12 possible combinations of each let's say he'd check and then call 2-4 times.

I see his range more or less like this:
AK - 1 (of 6) combinations (due to lack of PF aggression)
KQ - 2 (of 12) combinations (due to lack of PF aggression and flop bet size)
KTs - 3 combinations (unsuited folded PF)
K8s - 2 combinations (unsuited folded PF)
T8s - 2 combinations (unsuited folded PF)
TT - 3 combinations
88 - 3 combinations
QcJc, Jc9c - 2 combinations

This range consists of only 18 hand combinations and is probably way too tight. Maybe flushdraw + gut shot combos need to move into the range (like Qc9c) - maybe even hands that are just flush draws or just open ended straight draws (like QhJh or Qc7c). Another probable source of hands for the range is KT0 and T8o type hands.

His bet could be a made pair/set type hand worried about the draws on the board and overbetting it to price out draws. I think this would be sufficient to not slowplay neither set nor two-pair hands. I think the same reasoning would apply to TPTK, whereas TPGK is probably more likely to slow down and be willing to let the hand go.

At the end of this quick range check I think the range of hands he could have honestly played this way is slight enough that even a low chance of air will have a large number of possible hands compared to this narrow range. As for the most likely hand I think two-pair edges out set, and air is also in the same ballpark.

So, Erpel, what is Hero's best action here?

Edit: Erpel, OK with preflop, but don't you have more information than you're using on the postflop range estimate?

After we determine a PF range, we then have to narrow it based on the betting. It's interesting that the early favorite in the voting is 2 pair which does, in fact, match the betting pattern. But how can villain have 2 pair based on preflop action? It's possible, but very unlikely.

Come on, peeps. Estimate some likely ranges and narrow them down. Then tell me what Hero needs to do.

I don't really have an answer yet. Maybe I should just try to start over.

PF - post dead money and check: Any two, except QQ+, AK, AQs.
PF call (in position, 3way): AJs-A2s, KQs-K5s, AQo-A6o, KQo-KTo, QJs-Q9s, JTs-65s, J9s-86s, QJo, JJ-22
Flop raise (honestly): KTs, K8s, KTo, T8s, QcJc, Qc9c, Jc9c, TT, 88

PF call combinations: 21 + 23 + 62 + 33 + 11 + 20 + 13 + 12 +78 = 273
Flop raise (honest) combinations: 3 + 2 + 9 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 25

So if out of the 248 hand combinations that made it to the flop that are not on the 'honest' list he choses to bluff or semi-bluff raise 10% he'll have as many poor hands as properly strong hands - some of which still have a decent number of outs, whereas others have mediocre showdown value and are hoping for a fold.

I'm not sure what the bet size tells me, or is supposed to tell me. He's giving Hero 2-1 to call ($4.8 for a chance to win $9.7) while bloating the pot to a size where a push is 1/2 pot, making AI a given on later streets. Realistically though, Hero is paying $10.10 for a chance to win $24.9 (less the rake) so will need something on the order of 41-43% equity to have a positive expectation.

Although on one side I say that not a lot of bluffing or semi-bluffing needs to be done for this to be a push for Hero, if I think the villain is honest, then it's a fold. I don't think it's a clear situation either way. Vs an unknown I should probably err on the side of him being honest and folding.

Of the speculative hands Villain is most likely to have folded lower pocket pairs (playing maybe JJ), and most likely to be playing hands with draws in them, so his equity isn't as negatively impacted by speculative hands as he still has outs.

If I was put in the situation I'm pretty sure I'd push on the flop as Hero though. Ill-advised aggression is my middle name.

Additional notes:
I put Axs and Kxs in his range PF - since we're holding the Ac and Kc is on the board these hands could not be two-club hands. This greatly reduces the chance of him being on a flush draw.

We lead on the flop, which could indicate a TPTK or overpair type hand that wants to price out draws. In making his raise I think we should consider that villain might know the type of hand he's up against and has bet this way with a positive expectation. (98s has 11 outs for instance and would be positive expectation if he gives us even a slight chance of folding).

If we're up against two pair we have 5 outs to improve on the turn and 8 on the river which gives us 26.2% chance of improving on turn or river to a better two pair or a set of As.

I think if we're behind we have very few ways to improve, and if we're ahead the villain has a good amount of ways to improve. I'm warming to the idea of folding.

At .05/.10 he could have anything. I rule out K-K as he would have came over the top Pre I think. Might have a staight or a flush draw and trying to buy the pot because he feels he has outs. Might have paired K with a less then great kicker. I don't think he set but if he does the clubs may scare him so he wants to get the cash in now or take the pot. Seems the more I think about it that's what he wants. He either wants you to push it all in now or he will take what he can get now.

Doesn't really matter here to me, I still have outside straight and flush draws and the over pair. I shove it all in and look away ( And I shove quickly ) If he has set me I reload.

I guess if I had to guess on what he has I would say K-Q or something, I don't think he has a made hand but he likes it and he will felt I'm sure.

I take my chances here. Smart play is a fold, my play is push. Which is why I play SST's and not cash.

Remember at these stakes most players don't raise draws or sets on the flop. The only "play" they know is a "slow play".

Robb? Not much info to go on here.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Remember at these stakes most players don't raise draws or sets on the flop. The only "play" they know is a "slow play".

Robb? Not much info to go on here.

What you said is true - but you don't much more to go on with this board and betting, do you? I feel like the correct decision is (a) obvious and (b) +EV. The value is a bit thin, tho, I admit.

I'll post the results in a few days so you can the whole thing.

I'm almost always ready to felt this one. I see lots of top pair hands make this play at these stakes. If it's a set, nh. If it's a draw, you will have played it right. I can't see where a push here would be wrong, absent any strong reads.

Hope you treated yourself to a nice lunch with the winnings.

I think we need to ask how villain is close to 200bb if he just sat down. Clearly he must have either taken away a lot in very few hands without showdown or he has shown us at least something that we can use to apply a read here.

Without any sort of read, however, and considering a dead-money c/c his most likely holding for 2p would probably be KT. At these stakes it's quite common for the average unknown to consider even KTo a premium holding. T8, K8 are certainly possible though considerably less likely. His most likely holding for a set is 88, less so TT because you might expect a raise out of it and KK is certainly going to be raising and against it you'd likely be AI PF. If he holds a set he wants this pot over with to avoid being flushed on. If he holds an underpair like QQ or JJ (maybe even 99) he might just think he can take it away from you by repping a set. He may have a OESD or a FD and be looking to get his money in on that or just take it away here. It is also possible that he has TPGK or TPWK (KJ, K9 probably suited) and thinks you're on an underpair like QQ or JJ and just wants to take the pot right now.

As a range I consider anything that could connect to the board or be/become a draw, favoring suited cards to represent that he's less likely to be on a draw at microstakes. My range is more than likely a bit narrow but I can't see even a microdonk making much stranger choices:

Board: Kc Tc 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.704% 71.52% 00.19% 90624 239.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 28.296% 28.11% 00.19% 35618 239.00 { QQ-88, AQs-A8s, K8s+, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T8s, AQo-A8o, K8o+ }

Even without this range I am inclined to just shove over and pay off the odd 2p or set. I'm hurt by a 2p or set holding but I crush the rest of his range and like my chances against a draw. I'm not sure what to vote on though as I think basically everything except the draws are equally likely. I'll just guess TPWK.

Originally Posted by zxqv8

I think we need to ask how villain is close to 200bb if he just sat down. Clearly he must have either taken away a lot in very few hands without showdown or he has shown us at least something that we can use to apply a read here.

It's at Absolute - they allow 200 BB buy-ins. I'm serious, he just sat down, and he's posting his first BB out of turn in this HH.

Ahh, ok, this I did not know.

all in.

Hero shoves and fist pumps.

All-in.

Since he posted and called we can discount pairs since he will call a lot of unpaired hands he otherwise would have folded pre-flop. If we're beat he's just on 2 pair and we have a fair chunk of equity against him. He certainly could be playing top pair like this (to defend against a draw) or a draw (to get us to fold or at least get the money in pretty good.)

Putting him on a tighter range than that seems silly to me.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'll post the results in a few days so you can see the whole thing.

So, like, has it been a couple days?? I need validation.

First, before I give the results, let me explain why guessing set/2pr in the poll is incorrect. Preflop he could have lots of junk, but very few high quality hands, with 88 about the best paired hand possible. He's getting better than 2 to 1 on his preflop bet.

After the flop, though, there's probably less than a 5% chance he has a set. Seriously, there are like zero villains at 10nl that can fast play a set. I just put in a PSB, I obviously like my hand, and the raise is likely to get me to fold the exact hands a set wants to play against.

Two pair is a bit more likely, but he can only have it with Kx or T8, neither of which can be suited in a way that helps. And those combinations are possible but somewhat unlikely.

So, if he doesn't have a set or 2 pair (I'd guess about a 15-20% chance of one or the other), the only hands hero can be behind against are combo hands and big draws. The most obvious hands he can have are TPTK or Kx, and our hand plays well against them. Two clubs is unlikely, since he would need to have called with Qxs pre (QJs is likely, but none of the others are) or 97s, 67s or worse. And I think people forget how unlikely it is to call with sc's and actually hit a 4 flush. He may have 67s, but more than 3 out of 4 times, it will be the wrong suit.

I'll admit what I said to TJ is true: the +EV is thin. But this a shove, imo. And +EV against a complete unknown 10nl player.

http://weaktight.com/168544

You can see for yourself, and laugh, at my read and how I lost a buyin

this was fun for me though I missed the original post. I like seeing everyone's thinking behind reasoning.

my thinking went along the lines of "TPWK because of the huge overbet."

I'll keep my eye out and participate next time, and add a little more thought to my reasons