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I ran the Stove on it, but since it required evaluating 13 billion hands, it took a while. Now, I'm back. We've got 55 against 3 villains who's ranges we estimate as the Top 20%, 30% and 40% of Stove equity hands. I included a bigger range for the players to get more mid-low sc's and 1 gappers in because I put in this flop:
Board: 5c 9h Th
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.302% 71.30% 00.00% 13507133941 626748.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 10.464% 10.11% 00.35% 1915197477 67120262.27 {Top 20%}
Hand 2: 09.388% 09.03% 00.36% 1710968330 67552600.17 {Top 30%}
Hand 3: 08.845% 08.51% 00.33% 1612733482 62975868.85 {Top 40%}
We have over 70% equity when our "fair" share would 25%. In other words, we have value in the hand with only, say 30%, though it's hard to bet if one of the other villains has 60% of the remaining equity and the others have only 5% each - they're likely folding. But the point is strong our position is here against 3 villains.
I'm waiting for the Stove now on this one: Hero same holding, flop same, with 4 villains holding Top 5%, Top 10%, Top 40% and Top 50%. I'm not saying this is likely to occur, but it will get some premium hands in the mix and open up even more sc's and 1 gappers on the bottom end. But this many combinations will take while...
(LoL. had to use Monte Carlo since 10 minutes had only evaluated 2% of the total combinations!)
259,419,352 games 1318.094 secs 196,813 games/sec
Board: 5c 9h Th
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.134% 59.13% 00.00% 153401004 4223.50 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 14.188% 13.93% 00.26% 36140276 665430.08 {Top 5%}
Hand 2: 11.055% 10.71% 00.34% 27788664 890949.42 {Top 10%}
Hand 3: 08.106% 07.76% 00.34% 20140983 888439.08 {Top 40%}
Hand 4: 07.517% 07.18% 00.33% 18636467 863706.42 {Top 50%}
Again, in a pot where we are due to have 20% equity, we have almost 60%. In both simulations, we have 3x the equity we "ought" to have, and the higher quality hands while being slightly better than crap ranges are still bigtime dogs.
We need to be willing felt with sets, and stack off when necessary, even when we have multiple opponents
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