Adjusting PFR size

I'm sure this is 101 question, but I don't know the answer so gonna ask it anyhoo...

Assuming 1) Playing 10NL FR, 2) playing relatively tag (12/10-ish) and 3) picking the loosest tables I can find on FT... VPIP >30...

Where my usual PFR with mid+ PPs is 4x + limper, and I'm finding I'm still ending up MW on the flop... should I keep increasing my PFR amount (esp. w/ TT+) until I get to mostly HU? Vice versa on tables that tighten up and my 4x is consistently only taking the blinds. Should I drop it until I'm picking up a caller?

Understand positionally dependent, and my main issue is w/ AA, KK, AK where I want a caller vs. lower PPs where I'd rather just shut it down pre-flop.

Great post until:

my main issue is w/ AA, KK, AK where I want a caller vs. lower PPs where I'd rather just shut it down pre-flop.

Err, what?

You play lower PPs in order to hit sets and get paid. Low-mid PPs play fantastically multi-way, whereas AA,KK, AK you probably prefer to get HU.

Go ahead and adjust your PFR to suit your table though. Theres no reason why 4x+limper needs to be writ in stone.

You've pretty much got the right idea. In general the more often people call your raises, the bigger your PFR should be. At tight tables you should make it 3x to exploit the people who fold too much, sometimes even 2.5x. If they play back then they probably have a big hand so you can fold without having invested too much. If people are really loose then you should raise like 5x or more to punish them for their loose calls.

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like I'd still rather be HU w/ mid or less PPs that set... that is, HU against a deep stack. My problem is that my PT stats over 50K hands show a big drop in profitability for me MW w/ sets. I'm not folding them, and against 2+ villains my frequency of getting drawn out for stacks on an over-set, flush or straight actually has me losing money on sets MW. Is this just variance?

Hmm, dunno, seems strange though but will see what the more experienced guys think. My assumption was we get more 2P, TP type hands to stack off with us.

i have honestly never heard of someone being in the red with sets. Please post some histories. Maybe you are under beting them to much and are are unable to fold when your opponent hits a str8 or whatever. i know a lot of weak players make tiny little bets with their sets as they are terrified od loosing action

You know what I think kills me bj... I win the small pots MW against the TPTK, 2 pair, busted draw etc. - but these guys aren't stacking off with me. 75% of the time I can build to pot to stacks, it's BECAUSE the guy's running a nut combo-draw or over set. So I'm winning small and losing big. And something tells me that's not what I'm spose to be doing...

Are you getting the money in fast enough, or is most of it going in on the river?

My usual line is 4x PFR if opening or limp behind 2+ limpers. Assuming I set and lead the flop betting, it's 3/4 - PSB bet, RR if raised (tho' usually aren't at 10NL...) then 3/4 turn bet and shove the river if anyone left.

I rarely seem to get folks w/ TPTK staying with me thru the Turn... most fold to the turn bet. Usually I'm HU after the Turn and those who don't are the ones playing TP/draw or over-set.

Hence my problem. This line takes the pot down for a small win against worse hands. When folks stack off, it's on something solid that >50% of the time beats me... and for my stack.

To Ogre's point -- I almost never fold a set (which may be part of my problem). 4 suited or 4 to a straight by the turn may get me to fold to a raise on my 3/4 PSB. Otherwise, i'm value betting that b!tch thru the river... well, will C/F or C/C if 4th suited or straight hits on the river.

All this really goes back to my OP. Get HU w/ a set and I'm better off... def profitable HU w/ sets. Go MW and my profitability dumps... money loser over the 50K sample.

Oh, and if I can get HU PF, I can cbet and prolly take the pot down without having to set, which I can't do MW.

I'll dig up some HHs and post them, as I understand is all situation specific...

...and maybe I just suck extra specialy.

If you're not getting folks to call 3 streets with TPTK at 10NL its probably variance . Those guys have the NUTS!

Weird, I was talking to a friend playing a tourney last night and suggested that he should start raising 5-6xbb early when the blinds are low to cut down on the callers. Then this morning I was thinking of applying the same idea to microstakes thinking I was having some kind of revolution. Then I check in here and see this topic.

Basically I'm playing a tighter range, I want to get the most money in the pot as possible preflop. It's not like you are going to completely kill your action, but it will reduce the schooling effect and make all post flop decisions easier. (which is what I need because I still suck at poker)

Originally Posted by sarbox68

To Ogre's point -- I almost never fold a set (which may be part of my problem).

I think the problem might be getting too results oriented. Here's the deal with sets - they hold up well in multiway action. WTF?? I always wondered what the heck that meant. I've been thinking about that a lot lately. "Holding up well in multiway pots" means that lots of villains' outs are dead, i.e. draws to made hands that still won't win. And that's true regardless of the number of villains in the hand. Without a FD/SD on the board we're winning. And probably even then.

Many of the live straight/flush outs are compromised by the fact that we have 10 outs to the full house/quads on the river - every time. It's hard for us to EVER have less than 20% equity in the hand regardless of how many opponents have called - even after the FD/SD's have hit. Prior to that, about the only hands that really screw us are oversets. BTW, oversets occur about once in every 100 times you get a set. So almost never. "Holding up well" means that your equity in the pot stays about the same regardless of your opponents holding, or how many opponents there are. This isn't true for a lot of hands.

The point is that you're way ahead the vast majority of the time and way behind a tiny fraction. So get all the money in as early as possible. Over about 80k hands, I'm winning more than 80% of the time with sets. And I'm like never folding them, even into FD's

sarbox, you have the right idea on varying your pfr. you NEED to adjust it to get the pots you want. some sites, you would never open less than 6X. hell, live, you may not open less than 8X. however, if 4X is just picking blinds, drop it to 3X. but, you could have the sudden problem where you drop to 3X, and, suddenly, 5 players call your AA.

another thing. last night i was playing and saw 99 take down KJ, or some shit, with a set. he 3bet it!! i said, "wow, nh" he said, "yeah, 99 is better HU."

i laughed my ass off.

mid pairs arent bad HU, but all pp's under TT are most deadly multi-way...period.

and, Robb, you better not fold a set into a FD. you better PUNISH it to make its flush. i'm pretty sure you meant you "dont fold sets into made flushes." we'll let that one slide...

I ran the Stove on it, but since it required evaluating 13 billion hands, it took a while. Now, I'm back. We've got 55 against 3 villains who's ranges we estimate as the Top 20%, 30% and 40% of Stove equity hands. I included a bigger range for the players to get more mid-low sc's and 1 gappers in because I put in this flop:

Board: 5c 9h Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.302% 71.30% 00.00% 13507133941 626748.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 10.464% 10.11% 00.35% 1915197477 67120262.27 {Top 20%}
Hand 2: 09.388% 09.03% 00.36% 1710968330 67552600.17 {Top 30%}
Hand 3: 08.845% 08.51% 00.33% 1612733482 62975868.85 {Top 40%}

We have over 70% equity when our "fair" share would 25%. In other words, we have value in the hand with only, say 30%, though it's hard to bet if one of the other villains has 60% of the remaining equity and the others have only 5% each - they're likely folding. But the point is strong our position is here against 3 villains.

I'm waiting for the Stove now on this one: Hero same holding, flop same, with 4 villains holding Top 5%, Top 10%, Top 40% and Top 50%. I'm not saying this is likely to occur, but it will get some premium hands in the mix and open up even more sc's and 1 gappers on the bottom end. But this many combinations will take while...

(LoL. had to use Monte Carlo since 10 minutes had only evaluated 2% of the total combinations!)

259,419,352 games 1318.094 secs 196,813 games/sec

Board: 5c 9h Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.134% 59.13% 00.00% 153401004 4223.50 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 14.188% 13.93% 00.26% 36140276 665430.08 {Top 5%}
Hand 2: 11.055% 10.71% 00.34% 27788664 890949.42 {Top 10%}
Hand 3: 08.106% 07.76% 00.34% 20140983 888439.08 {Top 40%}
Hand 4: 07.517% 07.18% 00.33% 18636467 863706.42 {Top 50%}

Again, in a pot where we are due to have 20% equity, we have almost 60%. In both simulations, we have 3x the equity we "ought" to have, and the higher quality hands while being slightly better than crap ranges are still bigtime dogs.

We need to be willing felt with sets, and stack off when necessary, even when we have multiple opponents

now run it where villain flopped the flush and you flopped your set on a monotone board. you still have 20%+.

Originally Posted by Chopper

Robb, you better not fold a set into a FD. you better PUNISH it to make its flush. i'm pretty sure you meant you "dont fold sets into made flushes." we'll let that one slide...

LoL. Yeah, I meant when the flush or straight HIT. But I'm a dumbass. Good catch. Didn't know anyone actually read my posts :P