25NL: I know we arent supposed to 3 barrel the fish but...

Is this a good spot?

Villain is 34/4/1.2 after 100 hands. Seems like a standard loose passive fish. Will call Q high flops to the end with KQ, wont ever raise or fold a flush draw etc.

PFR and Flop are obvious. Turn, I feel he calls a lot but he also folds his A8s, A4s, 45, 77 type junk and we have plenty of equity and position when he calls.

By the river I feel his range has a tonne of weak-pair + gutshots like 8Ts, 8Js, 9T whatever as well as Axs flushdraws. He should(tm) fold most of this stuff to a "value bet". Further, the Q on the river means there are fewer combos of legitimate KQ, QJ, QT type hands that will instacall, and even though hes super passive, I would expect him to have raised a set/straight on this board. Is this a good spot to barrel like half - 2/3 pot?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($22.80)
UTG ($27.15)
MP ($20.55)
CO ($27.60)
Hero (Button) ($28.90)
SB ($47.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, K
3 folds, Hero bets $1, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.25) 4, Q, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

River: ($12.25) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

if I bluff I'm jamming

btw I think your range is pretty correct, but I'm not sure I understand your turn explanation.

On the river not only does the river Queen kill some combos, but we have to believe he'd lead trips a decent % of the time as well.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

btw I think your range is pretty correct, but I'm not sure I understand your turn explanation.

My turn wasnt fully explained :P. I think the turn bet is questionable. He calls a lot and he usually has a pair or a better draw than us when he calls. He does however have quite a few junky hands that are ahead of us that will fold, and if he does call we arent in that bad shape against the vast majority of his range. Position allows us to sometimes bluff a better draw out on the river, sometimes value bet a K and to maximise well if we hit our gutshot. All of these things prefer the pot to be bigger. So I think at worst the turn bet is boarderline bad. However, I think if we have no intention of ever bluffing the river the turn bet is probably much worse.

Why would you ever shove this river? I dont think he is ever folding a Q, and he should fold almost everything else to a 2/3 pot bet.

Im surprised youre the only person who commented though. I thought this was a pretty interesting hand .

Originally Posted by Pelion

Why would you ever shove this river? I dont think he is ever folding a Q, and he should fold almost everything else to a 2/3 pot bet.

I tend to value bet 2/3 on the river, but I like Spenda's shove-bluff for several reasons.
1. Most villains at 25nl who hit the trips are shoveling imo.
2. Most villains aren't paying attention to my normal flop play, much less have any idea what my standard river vbet is.
3. We rep a bigger hand in this spot with the bigger bet.
4. It's a straight up bluff that can only win with a fold. While we don't want to massively overbet, we don't want to get miserly here either. Bet it like a man.

I agree the hand is interesting. The board looks coordinated at first glance, but by the turn it's coordinated in a hard way to have connected solidly with. Like you said, lots of draws but not much in the made hand category that's really strong. I think it's fairly believable from Hero's betting that he holds the Q.

you're kidding yourself if you think he's folding 8x/9x/TT/etc.. to like an $8 bet.