20NL: AQo OOP

It's villain's second hand out of 15 that he's played since he sat down. I have no reads. In retrospect I should have 3bet this pot but I erred on the side of caution since I had no history with villain. Is this one of those spots where we can bet/fold the turn in order to narrow villain's range? If I check call turn for say 4$ or so, I feel river would be a difficult decision faced with a shove for villain's last 13$ or so since at that point I'd basically want to check it down. Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($9.54)
MP ($29.94)
CO ($28.95)
Button ($19.90)
Hero (SB) ($19.20)
BB ($19.83)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
2 folds, CO calls $0.20, Button bets $1, Hero calls $0.90, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.40) Q, 2, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($6.40) 6 (2 players)
Hero ???

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

In retrospect I should have 3bet this pot

Why?

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

Is this one of those spots where we can bet/fold the turn in order to narrow villain's range?

Yes to bet, maybe to fold. And it's not to narrow villain's range. It's for value, imo. He's opening light (even with no read we can infer this), and I like letting him get in trouble on an Axx flop with a dominated hand. And this board is pretty dry - he's pretty likely second best here, and doesn't know it.

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

If I check call turn for say 4$ or so, I feel river would be a difficult decision faced with a shove for villain's last 13$ or so since at that point I'd basically want to check it down. Thoughts?

Yeah, it's tough with a total unknown to call a river shove, but I'd probably do it if the river was a total blank. I might donk the river and make the crying call if shoved over. Again, SOME read helps here, even how long it takes him to make his bets/calls on turn/river compared to flop action. If the river looks scary, I might get away from it. Might.

Ok, wow, massive fail. I didn't pokerstove this before posting but if his range is something around the lines of {66+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,AJo+,KQo,QJo} then it's definitely a value bet on the turn since I have over 70% equity. And that's without shit like QT, JT, JK, etc. Meh, this is one of those spots where I get too weak/scared with TPTK I guess. Anyhoo, thanks Robb.

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

Ok, wow, massive fail. I didn't pokerstove this before posting but if his range is something around the lines of {66+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,AJo+,KQo,QJo} then it's definitely a value bet on the turn since I have over 70% equity. And that's without shit like QT, JT, JK, etc. Meh, this is one of those spots where I get too weak/scared with TPTK I guess. Anyhoo, thanks Robb.

Glad you took a look at the stove.

Consider this: he's probably opening Ax, so why 3bet? How should we play postflop on Axx flops? How do those lines merge with our lines when we have air? What is our maximum value line against Villain's small pp's?

Originally Posted by Robb

Consider this: he's probably opening Ax, so why 3bet? How should we play postflop on Axx flops? How do those lines merge with our lines when we have air? What is our maximum value line against Villain's small pp's?

I see what you mean, though the exact lines to take must be very villain dependent. I suppose with a very aggro villain we can check call 3 streets depending on the board (would have worked in this example) letting him valuetown himself. Versus a more passive villain going for check call flop, bet bet might be best. Again depending on the board, ofc.

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

I see what you mean, though the exact lines to take must be very villain dependent. I suppose with a very aggro villain we can check call 3 streets depending on the board (would have worked in this example) letting him valuetown himself. Versus a more passive villain going for check call flop, bet bet might be best. Again depending on the board, ofc.

Yeah, but you missed part of it - the times he's playing small pp's is << than the times he's playing Ax which makes up 1/3 to 1/2 his BTN range. What line(s) maximize our earn?

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

Ok, wow, massive fail. I didn't pokerstove this before posting but if his range is something around the lines of {66+,AJs+,KQs,QJs,AJo+,KQo,QJo} then it's definitely a value bet on the turn since I have over 70% equity. And that's without shit like QT, JT, JK, etc. Meh, this is one of those spots where I get too weak/scared with TPTK I guess. Anyhoo, thanks Robb.

Is he really calling the turn with 77 here?

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

I see what you mean, though the exact lines to take must be very villain dependent. I suppose with a very aggro villain we can check call 3 streets depending on the board (would have worked in this example) letting him valuetown himself. Versus a more passive villain going for check call flop, bet bet might be best. Again depending on the board, ofc.

Yeah, but you missed part of it - the times he's playing small pp's is << than the times he's playing Ax which makes up 1/3 to 1/2 his BTN range. What line(s) maximize our earn?

Call pre because I'm way ahead of Ax which would fold to a 3bet - so cold calling allows me to keep the villain in the hand where I'm way ahead of his range. Basically I'd be behind villain's 3bet calling range, hence it isn't really a good idea, right?

@Spoon, doubt he'd call 77-TT on the turn, you're right. It's still part of his button raise/c-bet range, which is what I'd be value betting against, no? His calling range on the turn would have to look more like {JJ+,66,AJs+,KQs,QJs,AJo+,KQo,QJo} which I only have 52% equity against. That's sort of what I meant before about bet/folding turn to narrow his range.

Preflop, we 3bet if:

(1) He's 4betting often enough that we can profitably shove AQo over his 4bet. In which case, we 3bet, intending to 5bet shove over his 4bet.

(2) He's calling 3bets IP light, but still 4betting a very strong range. In which case, we 3bet because we get good value when he calls with hands like KQ, QJ, QTs, Q9s, AJ, AT, etc.. However, when we 4bets, we fold because he's doing that with a strong range, which we aren't profitable enough to put the money in against.

Flop - I like a check to begin with. His range is pretty wide for isolating a limp. I believe he is going to bet a wider range of hands than he is going to call a bet with. That is, he will bet all of his air, nut hands, draws, etc. Whereas, if you donk into him, he is probably folding his air, calling his draws, and raising his nut hands.

It's because of the above, I check. Both check/calling flop, and check/raising flop is fine. It depends on what his cbetting range is, and what hands he is continuing to that c/r with. If you think you can get AQ allin on the flop profitably here, I would go ahead and check/raise. If you are behind his stackoff range on the flop, then check/call.

Turn - Same goes here.. I'm okay with either a lead, or another c/c. I usually c/c in this spot. However, there is merit to leading the turn, so that he can call his draws, and not get a free card. While also probably calling any Qx, Jx, because he thinks you might have a draw.

So yeah, I c/c turn, and play a river.