10NL double barrel

Interested in the turn action.

23/19, 90% fold BB to steal, 4% 3bet, fold to cbet 4/6
note - saw me raise/fold 754tt

Pre - He folds a lot to steals and doesn't 3bet much.

Flop - Dry, misses a good chunk of his range. Cbet should be profitable.

Turn - Once he calls I think he has Qx/9x/JT/55-99 and the occasional gutter or float. Though this isn't a scare card it gives me 5 outs vs Q/9. Probably folds any gutter/float and 66-88, maybe some 9x. Roughly need him to fold 30% of the time. Sizing?

River - Easy vbet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($10.05)
BB ($11.64)
UTG ($5.25)
MP ($10.85)
Button ($4.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 8
3 folds, Hero bets $0.35, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.70) 4, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, BB calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.60) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10

River: ($3.80) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Total pot: $9.80 | Rake: $0.44

c/f the flop

basically you have no equity when your called and you should be called a pretty good chunk since he folds BB so much to steal and we made it huge in the first place.

turn is for sure a bet now that we picked up equity, we don't want him to free card all the Ahighs and shit that has 6outs etc.+ we can get him to fold 9x or w/e some non 0% I guess(?).

Edit: thought it was 5NL, fixed EV calculation.

Blind wars are interesting SB vs. BB.

In a 1v1 situation like this, we need big cards. I would bet any two 8+, but would hesitate with two small cards. Even hands like 76s go way down in value heads up, where any pair is quite likely to win and everyone shows down crap so there's not a ton of implied odds for hitting the flush. We want the bigger pairs, and 9x and Qx are both in his range, not ours. And it looks like he knows it.

I'm not saying 85 suited is bad here, I'm just saying we should be playing it to steal. The 3% of the time that the flop offers us sexual favors, fine, bet into him. But the rest of the time, I'm check/folding.

How many HH's? Let's say he folds to SB steal 80%. Even nits don't fold 90% in this spot. And say we bet to 3.5xBB to steal. Then 4 of 5 times, we earn a 1.5 BB for a 3 BB investment. The 5th time, we check fold. That's .8 * 1.5 - .2 * 3.0 = 1.2 - .6 = + .6 BB.

You can steal with 85s in this spot for value (and it's way better than folding and losing the SB). But you can't really play it afterwards without the perfect flop.

Can we not just fold this pre and be happy about it? .. Also hoopy how many hands do you have on this guy?

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

Can we not just fold this pre and be happy about it? .. Also hoopy how many hands do you have on this guy?

260 hands.

I open because he's folding his BB to most steals, usually we pick up 1.5BB pre which is great. For that reason like treebet said I should be opening smaller since we risk less to win the same amount as he won't change his folding frequency.

Postflop c/f now seems obvious, no equity to barrel with and his range is strong given that he folds lots pre.

Cheers guys.