Operation Winning is a Habit

Originally Posted by Robb

Focus on the CO, who is 38/16/1.2. We can estimate his cold calling range by multiplying the gap between vpip and pfr by 2 = 2 * (38 - 16 ) = 44%. (When we look it up, it's 41%.)

Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP?

That's what PT4 said. I'll see if I can find the hand again. Remember, it's cold cold % of times facing that opportunity, and the Merge nano 6max tables have been full of UTG min-raising idiots lately.

OK, found it: here's the rest of his dumbassery preflop:

• vpip = 37% (103/276)
• call open = 41% (44/108)
• limp = 16% (26/164)
• pfr = 15% (42/276)
• raise 1st = 23% (31/136)
• 3bet = 6% (6/108)
• Fold to 3bet = 0% (0/4)
• Fold to 4bet = 0% (0/2)

Especially those last two lines show this guy doesn't know where the fold button is, at least not preflop.

Villain 1 (CO): PFR is 31/18/1.8 over 500 HH's with 44% steal. His flop cbet = 61. Let's see if we can get his range by the river. I'm not bothering with position stats - let's go with a range of 25% pfr (+ some junk) in the CO for him.

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $4.00
UTG: $5.23
CO: $4.00
Hero (BTN): $2.44
SB: $3.73

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has J 3

fold, CO raises to $0.14, fold, SB calls $0.12, fold

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 4 4 T
SB checks, CO bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24

Turn: ($0.80, 2 players) 3
SB checks, CO bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

River: ($2.00, 2 players) 9
SB checks, CO bets $3.02 and is all-in, SB calls $2.75 and is all-in

Robb's Ranges

Spoiler: Show

Preflop

• Premium, Broadways Jx, Broadways Tx, all pp's, Axs/sc's (5 chunks, ~ 25%)
• We'll include some "junk" just to realize he could have a few other combos, especially Ax hands, depending on what he likes to add into his pfr range in LP.

Flop
Superdry, and he's not a cbet monkey. Hmm...let's keep

• All Premiums
• Half Broadway Jx (he doesn't cbet just any 2 overs)
• All Broadway Tx as most of them just hit
• Half pp's: 44 (obv), and 88+
• Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (I'm adding A4 from the "junk" portion - it's not unlikely)

Turn
Another blank, though a couple of draws became active. Only when the range gets narrow do I think in actual combos:

• Premiums: AA, KK, QQ (18 combos)
• Broadway Jx: AT only (12 combos)
• Broadway Tx: KT, QT, JT (48 combos)
• pp's: 44, 88 - JJ (22 combos) - - we excluded 33 already, don't think he double barrels w/ low pp's < 88)
• Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (14 combos)

River
Interesting card. How many of these combos can REALLY three barrel? And with decent sized bets on each street? Here's what's left:

• pp's: 44, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA
• Tx: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9s, T8s
• A4

He obv 3 barrels with 44, 99, TT, KK, AA, A4. But bet-sizing is interesting and seems to rule out TT, AA, KK. He probably barrels with KT, QQ, JJ and Txs (but these are less likely). I don't think he fires two barrels with T8s, so I'd be surprise to see him show that down.

Robb's Best Guess (in order of likelihood): QQ, AT, 99, 44, JJ, TT, AA, KK, A4, and some Tx hands. I think he's got QQ, JJ, AT or a set.

Villain 2 (SB): Taking a look at the other villain, who is 47/9/1.0 over 58 hands with no 3bets. He calls 50% (15 of 30 chances).

Spoiler: Show

Flop
This one's interesting. He's obv loose passive, but these guys usually need SOME kind of hand, some gutshot draw or bottom pair to continue with. And this board's dry as a bone. Here's my range for him:

• all pp's 22+, 4x and Tx
• let's put in some junk like Axs he's floating on a prayer.

Really, what else can he have?

Turn
Ah, some draws appear.

• all pp's 33+, 4x and Tx
• AdXd
• I don't see any 3x left in his range other than 33, but you hate to completely rule it out

River

• pp's: JJ, QQ (I'm discounting AA/KK, as I think they would have gotten raised preflop or flop. I'm getting rid of all sets completely, as I think they get raised on the river).
• 4x: A4, K4s discounted heavily (no river bet seems odd w/ trips)
• Tx: These are fine, I think he continues w/ Tx where x > 7 and probably wouldn't raise the river even with AT.

Robb's Best Guess (SB): KT, QT, JT, JJ, QQ plus other Tx, 4x and sets heavily discounted, other pp's remotely possible.

Here's the results. Ho. Lee. Crap. I was so wrong it's hilarious! If you haven't looked, yet, see if you can put either villain on a hand.

Spoiler: Show

CO shows A 7 (One Pair, Fours) (Pre 49%, Flop 39%, Turn 27%)
SB shows 2 2 (Two Pair, Fours and Twos) (Pre 51%, Flop 61%, Turn 73%)
CO wins $0.00
SB wins $7.13

End of the day, I'm glad I worked hard on this and thought it through. It's amazing how awful these players are, and realizing the crazy combos that they can be playing helps a ton. Helps explain some of the "nut" lines I've had to fold my TPTK hands against, as well.

Originally Posted by Robb

now I'm on loose, action-filled tables which are absolutely PERFECT for a TAGG approach, and I'm not playing TAGG-std poker. I'm ldo if you want to play laggy, table select to find nits, TAGG wannabes and weak-tighties. If you're table selecting laggy, why not open a small strong range of hands and camp on the nuts? Only open up when (if?) you stop getting action.

So I've learned some things this week:

• Play the game you've table-selected for, dumbass!
• Reversing, I can table-select for the game I want to practice.
• I'm very much aiming at mid 20's vpip, not 28+
• I need to work on calling ranges.
• I am still (relative to my opponent's) very good HU, and need to focus on that rather than "volume" during sessions, especially where I'm running bad. Go with what works.

smart

Originally Posted by Robb

Frustrating that FTR has devolved

i'd like to say blame black friday, but who knows. There's been some weird stuff since ages, i thought that even before i was banned...

Originally Posted by Robb

but when you ask for help on preflop flatting ranges, the thread goes silent. We used to have experienced players who would explain their reasoning.

still a few people posting good stuff as well though, which i am hugely grateful for - d0zer/m2m/yaawn/fnord all spring immediately to mind

Originally Posted by Robb

Certain players I respect are disrespected these days on FTR. I can mention half a dozen, but I'll just mention Spoon. WTF? He was an ass, but he always willing to explain his reasoning and help others.

spoon backed up tough love with devoting a whole tonne of time to helping people and developing ftr resources. The hate seems absolutely stupid. Group dynamics are funny things.

Originally Posted by Robb

I went elsewhere and worked a ton on my own, especially about flatting ip and from the blinds. I will report some of what find over the coming days. Also, this "equity" idea is often bullshit. Just because you have equity doesn't necessarily mean you have playable hand.

probably the best thing you can do to get better at poker. I never do enough of it, even though i know it...

Originally Posted by Robb

I've decided I'm going to take what I know and what I feel I do best, and experiment like crazy and do the maths and work on ranges and villain profiles and get my HUD in order, and I'm going to put together a game of Robb-poker, combo by combo (Shania?), position by position, merged range by polarized range. I'm going to do it at the nano's and improve it by tweaking it as I move up.

I don't give a flying furry what people think. I've been inhibited about what to post and how to play for too damn long. It doesn't matter if anyone on FTR or in the BC is impressed with me, it just matters if I win and know why the hell it's happening, so I can fix the problem(s) when I'm losing. I want a flexible game that can open up or tighten up when needed, and understand how to use all aspects of game play to win more: aggression, passivity, table selection, villain profiling, table starting, not tilting, br management - the whole deal.

gold

Originally Posted by !Luck

Get a base of 13/11 or whatever the current style is. Then add one concept at time and only 1. Master it. Then move on.

for all that i agree with what Robb wrote above, this is also very good advice for some people and in some situations

Interesting spot:

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $8.70
Hero (SB): $2.76
BB: $4.64
UTG: $4.34
MP: $4.00
CO: $6.91

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has A 9

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.28, fold, CO calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 7 K A
Hero bets ???, fold

What's the best value line here, against TAGG's? Against loose passives?

I'm pretty sure I played it wrong, so would be happy to hear your thoughts. We don't want the flush to hit the turn as it will stop the action in its tracks. Not sure what the best flop bet is. Sizing?

i don't see that mixing 70bb and 100bb play is helping you play better poker. Maybe i'm wrong, maybe not. Are you varying your choices by stack depth?

Pre you can do most things. Don't bet flop if you have less than 100 hands of history - cos you're still aiming to make money whenever you sit.

Originally Posted by Robb

Ho. Lee. Crap.

Heh. I think i've met his brother Ho Lee Fuk. Also plays nanos.

Quick question about The Sheet (TM):-

Originally Posted by Robb

Each area is ~5% of all poker starting combos, and they are arranged (roughly) on the page from top (stronger) to bottom (weaker) in terms of their playability in HU, imo.

Is there any significance in vertical arrangement beyond the statement above? e.g. the Axo group starts between 87s and 76s. Is this important, or are they just "lower"?

Cheers!

Not to sidetrack thread (again) but my whole beef with spoon was after I'd been around for a couple years then he just turned into the biggest prick in the universe (directed towards me). Not really sure why everyone else hates him, but I definitely have my own personal reasons. His teachings from pre-2009 are definitely gold.

Anyone else making custom stats in PT4? Took me a couple of attempts, as it's a bit of a train yourself guess-check-revise process with no hints, just compile or fail. Still, I'm getting there.

I went back to the maths that helped me understand poker the best, the FTC theorem article. Couldn't find the original spreadsheet, so I rebuilt it. Which was good. I found a place to simplify the formulas greatly and retain the usefulness.

My idea is to develop my own FTC ratios for different lines, so I could configure a popup and see a ratio of "fold to continue" for when the opponent flatted pre then donked the flop. Do this for most common lines.

The biggest hurdle, besides my SQL ineptitude, is the number of HH's we need for the figures to become significant. Initial work with the "faced 3bet" FTC show that I need > 10 3bets to have occurred for the ratio to be helpful.

You can't make them fold.

need any help w/ the SQL?

Originally Posted by Robb

You can't make them fold.

sure you can, just gotta try harder! (try harder = go full retard)

$0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($85.31)
UTG+1 ($29.30)
daven (MP1) ($67.07)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($23.85)
BTN ($67.05)
SB ($30.47)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 8 players) daven is MP1
2 folds, daven raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN raises to $3.85, 2 folds, daven raises to $7.40, BTN calls $3.55

Flop: ($15.55, 2 players)
daven checks, BTN bets $8.40, daven goes all-in $59.62, BTN folds

Final Pot: $32.35

daven wins $82.11 (net +$15.04)

BTN lost $15.85


$0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($88.46)
UTG+1 ($62.50)
MP1 ($72.18)
MP2 ($40.90)
MP3 ($32.99)
daven (CO) ($30.58)
BTN ($25)
SB ($30.98)
BB ($64.94)

Pre-Flop: ($0.80, 9 players) daven is CO
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, daven calls $0.75, BTN raises to $3, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.25, daven calls $2.25

Flop: ($10.05, 3 players)
MP2 checks, daven checks, BTN bets $5.50, MP2 folds, daven goes all-in $27.53, BTN folds

Final Pot: $21.05

daven wins $42.13 (net +$11.55)

MP1 lost $0.30
MP2 lost $3.05
BTN lost $8.55

You never go FULL RETARD.

big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though

lol full retard...I tilted last night, lost 1.5 BI's, quit, took today off to watch the CL final and have margaritas with some friends, going rock climbing tomorrow. Will probably be down massively for the week, but I need some clarity and rest and rock climbing is probably best for that.

Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad.

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad.

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

Thanks. Felt good in a session this morning, still ran a BI below EV. Got the money in good, didn't tilt. If I can keep doing that, I'll be fine.

Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

need any help w/ the SQL?

Thanks, DJ, I think I'm doing pretty well. I have 4 batches of custom stats created for FTC scenarios, and I'm working on the maths.

Poker life is good. The time off helped. I had a lunchtime session, bringing today's total to ~800 hands, up 1/2 BI, 1.3 BI's below EV. Still getting the chips in good, and not tilting.

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

This made me lol - thanks, Luco!

Originally Posted by Keith

big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though

I went through all my reasons for 70BB buy-in, and I did not find them compelling. I'm now opening all tables, super-short or full, with 100 BB stacks and topping up when I fall below 95ish.

Originally Posted by Robb

Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad.

cool! I'd imagine your fitness doesn't fit too poorly on the FTR continuum, even without prop bets to get the psyche on!

Down about 2 BI today. Variance hit on HU starting tables against a known TAGG, A9 < A6s, 55 < KK, AT < KJ, all 5bet shoves by me after he started 4betting light. Thrilled he'll call off his stack with A6 and KJ, but DAMN. Up and down rest of day, up about a BI in rest of action. No tilt, yet.

Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate.

I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV.

Sorry this has turned into a bad beat bitch-fest. I just hope my stakers know I'm getting the chips in good. Hopefully, the variance will even out soon. I think I'm learning this game again, and feeling pretty confident about my reads tonight. Made several big river calls and was right on almost all of them. Bet for value in big pots after putting them on ranges.

I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death.

Originally Posted by Robb

I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV.

This is impressive, well done.

Originally Posted by Robb

Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate.

[ ] relaunch

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death.

all-in -> minimise
i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc.

Originally Posted by daven

all-in -> minimise
i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc.

That's awesome - I wish I had that level of discipline. I only have 4 tables going on a 27" monitor, so I see all my tables all the time. I guess I could physically minimize it, though.

I'm pretty good at celebrating the "got it all-in good" or "yeah, my read was right." I don't tilt much over single bad beats, it's the garph that really screws up my head, when I keep dropping WAY below the yellow line.

Even last night, after several bad beats, I really felt like I was reading my opponents well. I 2-barreled with precision, made a few big river calls (that were right!), refused to bet hopeless flops against the stations, and generally kept out of trouble.

This is my last week of poker:


By robb_in_georgia at 2012-05-28

And on my laptop:



Running 11BI behind EV over 4.5k hands. Wow. Just wow. Admittedly, I would be about break-even, not winning, if I ran at EV. I cannot deny there's 2-3 BI's of spew in there, but I have done pretty well avoiding tilt - getting away from the tables when I'm tilting, taking a couple of days off twice this week, etc.

I've seen these huge downswings, sometimes 25 - 40 BI below EV over weeks and weeks, from FTR icons. I guess this is still just a medium-sized one. Sorry for the bad beat posts, just wanted to look at the last two weeks, since beginning of downswing.

Here's the hands from laptop, last two weeks:



Will edit in a moment with graph from desktop.



So...17 BI below EV over two weeks, or roughly $70 below expectation. I guess it's not unbelievable, but it's certainly the worst run I've ever had.

At least I'm positive EV for the run, despite some tilt-spew (not as much as I would have two years ago, but some).

more climbing and exercise, less losing flips.

you're running bad. That's always horrible. I usually take it as a good excuse to go run some simple filters across the last few hands, find another possible leak or two, work on it => when i start to run normal again my true winrate has somehow increased. But you already seem to do enough work on your game, although, hmmm. Have you tried the simple 'take 5 randomly selected hand histories from the set vpip=true, saw turn=true, now consider ALL options at each point in the hand. Not just bet vs check vs raise vs fold, but sizing as well. 1/2psb vs pot vs overbet' approach to poker study recently. It's gold.

I read what you wrote above re HU starting tables and villains starting to 4b light. One adjustment is obviously to widen your 5b shoving value range etc (and that's high variance and heaps of fun), but what about slowing down post-flop and crushing them with superior skill after some cards come?

Originally Posted by Robb

I went through all my reasons for 70BB buy-in, and I did not find them compelling. I'm now opening all tables, super-short or full, with 100 BB stacks and topping up when I fall below 95ish.

good, only reason for not buying in full is when the fish are less than full and there are regs that you find threatening that are full. Doesn't apply at 100bb unless you're already a good shortstacker.

Originally Posted by Robb

This is my last week of poker: Running 11BI behind EV over 4.5k hands. Wow. Just wow. Admittedly, I would be about break-even, not winning, if I ran at EV. I cannot deny there's 2-3 BI's of spew in there,

bold is really important - it's tiny sample, but still...

Robb, a part of me wants to see you fail since you have, at times, been very cocky as to how easy nanostakes were to beat. I don't think you're necessarily running bad (my opinion), I think your playing bad. If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap. Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested, and you'll start winning. It's just that simple (maybe). It's definitely a better approach than you've had so far.

On the other hand, you seem tight with Daven, so I'd dump your whole BR into lessons from him, if he's agreeable.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap.

Check.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested

Check.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

and you'll start winning.

Pending...

Hmmm....that was a drunken post! There may be some truth to it, idk. You've done it before (beat micro's) and you can do it again. Good luck!

hehe no worries

I quit opening tables after 4-5 BI's down, and tightened up to ~ 26/22. A few more BI's dropped and tightened up more, eased off on marginal 3bets/squeezes. Tried to flat less, cbet more carefully, not value town myself. Last 3k hands, I'm running more like 20/18/3.

I haven't posted a ton, but I have been in touch with Keith via pm. And I listen carefully every time Daven posts. I believe you and he are both right, him with a gentle reminder to "plug leaks," and you with the more direct version. The downswing isn't nearly as bad if you're playing well despite the bad beats, and I have to own up to the BI's dropped due to the bad decisions I've made at the tables.

So I think we agree. And I think we can agree that getting toasted every now and again is a positive life EV, as well.

All the best, PTW, good luck at the tables.

Sup Robb, I always used to check out your blog / posts when I used to play. Seems like you've always tried to explain the reasoning behind what you're doing which is probably my biggest weakness - so reading your stuff forces me to think about that sort of thing.

Anyway, I've started up again (2NL 6max) and will be keeping an eye out for your blog posts! GL.

I haven't played poker in about 10 days, first due to hectic life surrounding my wife's birthday when several families from out of town visited, then due to Merge's update and the subsequent PT updates needed to play with HUD.

My Summer Honors programs starts in a week (oh, lordy), and I have my summer class winding up along with a big consulting project due by Friday. Not sure I'll have time to play the rest of the month. Like to, though.

yo robb, i don't know near enough about your game to say what your leaks are. but you seem to be attaching too much of your attention to your winnings and EV lines and their disparities and etc. i know you are on a stake so you have to report results and etc, but there is seriously no point in looking at your EV. the all-in EV indicator shows the difference between your results and your expected results against the actual hand combination you got the money in against on that occasion. however, we all know that we play against ranges of hands and never against a single hand combination. thus, you can be running into the tops of peoples ranges (meaning your PT3 EV line will look shite) when really you are getting the money in in tremendously +EV situation (versus the range of hands your opponent can hold).

It's like the difference between the fundamental theorem of poker (what you should do if you KNEW your opponents exact two cards) and phil galfonds "G-bucks" theorem (which takes into account ranges).

anyway, you're a maths dude so i'm sure you understand the difference between the EV of getting all-in versus a single hand and getting all-in versus a range of hands. just thought it was worth pointing that out. all the best amigo

edit: here's a link i intended to post originally which basically renders all of the above obsolete. 'G Bucks' Conceptualizing Money Matters. by Phil Galfond | Bluff Magazine April-2007