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# Operation Winning is a Habit

1.  05-17-2012 03:25 PM Luco Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,363 Originally Posted by Robb Starting tables, I only have a 70BB stack. I play small ball w/ 2x BTN raises standard, and this adjusts the post flop pot-to-stack ratios more optimally. Personally I've always felt a little meh about SPR. nh though Robb, I'll be watching this blog. Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
2.  05-17-2012 09:18 PM DoubleJ Join Date Mar 2011 Posts 858 Location Still on that feckin' island! Originally Posted by Robb Focus on the CO, who is 38/16/1.2. We can estimate his cold calling range by multiplying the gap between vpip and pfr by 2 = 2 * (38 - 16 ) = 44%. (When we look it up, it's 41%.) Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP? don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
3.  05-17-2012 09:32 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by DoubleJ Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP? That's what PT4 said. I'll see if I can find the hand again. Remember, it's cold cold % of times facing that opportunity, and the Merge nano 6max tables have been full of UTG min-raising idiots lately. OK, found it: here's the rest of his dumbassery preflop:vpip = 37% (103/276) call open = 41% (44/108) limp = 16% (26/164) pfr = 15% (42/276) raise 1st = 23% (31/136) 3bet = 6% (6/108) Fold to 3bet = 0% (0/4) Fold to 4bet = 0% (0/2) Especially those last two lines show this guy doesn't know where the fold button is, at least not preflop.
5.  05-18-2012 01:09 AM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up Originally Posted by Robb now I'm on loose, action-filled tables which are absolutely PERFECT for a TAGG approach, and I'm not playing TAGG-std poker. I'm ldo if you want to play laggy, table select to find nits, TAGG wannabes and weak-tighties. If you're table selecting laggy, why not open a small strong range of hands and camp on the nuts? Only open up when (if?) you stop getting action. So I've learned some things this week:Play the game you've table-selected for, dumbass! Reversing, I can table-select for the game I want to practice. I'm very much aiming at mid 20's vpip, not 28+ I need to work on calling ranges. I am still (relative to my opponent's) very good HU, and need to focus on that rather than "volume" during sessions, especially where I'm running bad. Go with what works. smart Originally Posted by Robb Frustrating that FTR has devolved i'd like to say blame black friday, but who knows. There's been some weird stuff since ages, i thought that even before i was banned... Originally Posted by Robb but when you ask for help on preflop flatting ranges, the thread goes silent. We used to have experienced players who would explain their reasoning. still a few people posting good stuff as well though, which i am hugely grateful for - d0zer/m2m/yaawn/fnord all spring immediately to mind Originally Posted by Robb Certain players I respect are disrespected these days on FTR. I can mention half a dozen, but I'll just mention Spoon. WTF? He was an ass, but he always willing to explain his reasoning and help others. spoon backed up tough love with devoting a whole tonne of time to helping people and developing ftr resources. The hate seems absolutely stupid. Group dynamics are funny things. Originally Posted by Robb I went elsewhere and worked a ton on my own, especially about flatting ip and from the blinds. I will report some of what find over the coming days. Also, this "equity" idea is often bullshit. Just because you have equity doesn't necessarily mean you have playable hand. probably the best thing you can do to get better at poker. I never do enough of it, even though i know it... Originally Posted by Robb I've decided I'm going to take what I know and what I feel I do best, and experiment like crazy and do the maths and work on ranges and villain profiles and get my HUD in order, and I'm going to put together a game of Robb-poker, combo by combo (Shania?), position by position, merged range by polarized range. I'm going to do it at the nano's and improve it by tweaking it as I move up. I don't give a flying furry what people think. I've been inhibited about what to post and how to play for too damn long. It doesn't matter if anyone on FTR or in the BC is impressed with me, it just matters if I win and know why the hell it's happening, so I can fix the problem(s) when I'm losing. I want a flexible game that can open up or tighten up when needed, and understand how to use all aspects of game play to win more: aggression, passivity, table selection, villain profiling, table starting, not tilting, br management - the whole deal. gold don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
6.  05-18-2012 01:11 AM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up Originally Posted by !Luck Get a base of 13/11 or whatever the current style is. Then add one concept at time and only 1. Master it. Then move on. for all that i agree with what Robb wrote above, this is also very good advice for some people and in some situations Last edited by daven; 05-18-2012 at 01:18 AM. don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
7.  05-18-2012 01:18 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Interesting spot: Merge - \$0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 BTN: \$8.70 Hero (SB): \$2.76 BB: \$4.64 UTG: \$4.34 MP: \$4.00 CO: \$6.91 Hero posts SB \$0.02, BB posts BB \$0.04 Pre Flop: (pot: \$0.06) Hero has A 9 fold, fold, CO raises to \$0.10, fold, Hero raises to \$0.28, fold, CO calls \$0.18 Flop: (\$0.60, 2 players) 7 K A Hero bets ???, fold What's the best value line here, against TAGG's? Against loose passives? I'm pretty sure I played it wrong, so would be happy to hear your thoughts. We don't want the flush to hit the turn as it will stop the action in its tracks. Not sure what the best flop bet is. Sizing?
8.  05-18-2012 01:21 AM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up i don't see that mixing 70bb and 100bb play is helping you play better poker. Maybe i'm wrong, maybe not. Are you varying your choices by stack depth? Pre you can do most things. Don't bet flop if you have less than 100 hands of history - cos you're still aiming to make money whenever you sit. don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
9.  05-18-2012 07:55 AM DoubleJ Join Date Mar 2011 Posts 858 Location Still on that feckin' island! Originally Posted by Robb Ho. Lee. Crap. Heh. I think i've met his brother Ho Lee Fuk. Also plays nanos. Quick question about The Sheet (TM):- Originally Posted by Robb Each area is ~5% of all poker starting combos, and they are arranged (roughly) on the page from top (stronger) to bottom (weaker) in terms of their playability in HU, imo. Is there any significance in vertical arrangement beyond the statement above? e.g. the Axo group starts between 87s and 76s. Is this important, or are they just "lower"? Cheers! don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
10.  05-18-2012 07:02 PM dranger7070 Join Date Oct 2008 Posts 4,081 Location Butnaahhhhhh Not to sidetrack thread (again) but my whole beef with spoon was after I'd been around for a couple years then he just turned into the biggest prick in the universe (directed towards me). Not really sure why everyone else hates him, but I definitely have my own personal reasons. His teachings from pre-2009 are definitely gold.
11.  05-18-2012 08:16 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Anyone else making custom stats in PT4? Took me a couple of attempts, as it's a bit of a train yourself guess-check-revise process with no hints, just compile or fail. Still, I'm getting there. I went back to the maths that helped me understand poker the best, the FTC theorem article. Couldn't find the original spreadsheet, so I rebuilt it. Which was good. I found a place to simplify the formulas greatly and retain the usefulness. My idea is to develop my own FTC ratios for different lines, so I could configure a popup and see a ratio of "fold to continue" for when the opponent flatted pre then donked the flop. Do this for most common lines. The biggest hurdle, besides my SQL ineptitude, is the number of HH's we need for the figures to become significant. Initial work with the "faced 3bet" FTC show that I need > 10 3bets to have occurred for the ratio to be helpful.
12.  05-19-2012 11:03 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 You can't make them fold.
13.  05-19-2012 05:04 PM DoubleJ Join Date Mar 2011 Posts 858 Location Still on that feckin' island! need any help w/ the SQL? don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
14.  05-19-2012 09:48 PM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up Originally Posted by Robb You can't make them fold. sure you can, just gotta try harder! (try harder = go full retard) \$0.10/\$0.25 Ante \$0.05 No Limit Holdem 8 Players Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com Stacks: UTG (\$85.31) UTG+1 (\$29.30) daven (MP1) (\$67.07) MP2 (\$25) CO (\$23.85) BTN (\$67.05) SB (\$30.47) BB (\$25) Pre-Flop: (\$0.75, 8 players) daven is MP1 2 folds, daven raises to \$1.10, 2 folds, BTN raises to \$3.85, 2 folds, daven raises to \$7.40, BTN calls \$3.55 Flop: (\$15.55, 2 players) daven checks, BTN bets \$8.40, daven goes all-in \$59.62, BTN folds Final Pot: \$32.35 daven wins \$82.11 (net +\$15.04) BTN lost \$15.85 \$0.10/\$0.25 Ante \$0.05 No Limit Holdem 9 Players Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com Stacks: UTG (\$88.46) UTG+1 (\$62.50) MP1 (\$72.18) MP2 (\$40.90) MP3 (\$32.99) daven (CO) (\$30.58) BTN (\$25) SB (\$30.98) BB (\$64.94) Pre-Flop: (\$0.80, 9 players) daven is CO 2 folds, MP1 calls \$0.25, MP2 raises to \$0.75, 1 fold, daven calls \$0.75, BTN raises to \$3, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls \$2.25, daven calls \$2.25 Flop: (\$10.05, 3 players) MP2 checks, daven checks, BTN bets \$5.50, MP2 folds, daven goes all-in \$27.53, BTN folds Final Pot: \$21.05 daven wins \$42.13 (net +\$11.55) MP1 lost \$0.30 MP2 lost \$3.05 BTN lost \$8.55 don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
15.  05-19-2012 11:05 PM dranger7070 Join Date Oct 2008 Posts 4,081 Location Butnaahhhhhh You never go FULL RETARD.
16.  05-20-2012 12:41 AM Keith Join Date Nov 2008 Posts 2,790 big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though
17.  05-20-2012 01:54 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 lol full retard...I tilted last night, lost 1.5 BI's, quit, took today off to watch the CL final and have margaritas with some friends, going rock climbing tomorrow. Will probably be down massively for the week, but I need some clarity and rest and rock climbing is probably best for that.
18.  05-21-2012 09:11 AM Luco Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,363 Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad. Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed? Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
19.  05-21-2012 09:45 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by Lucothefish Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad. Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed? Thanks. Felt good in a session this morning, still ran a BI below EV. Got the money in good, didn't tilt. If I can keep doing that, I'll be fine. Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad.
20.  05-21-2012 07:01 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by DoubleJ need any help w/ the SQL? Thanks, DJ, I think I'm doing pretty well. I have 4 batches of custom stats created for FTC scenarios, and I'm working on the maths. Poker life is good. The time off helped. I had a lunchtime session, bringing today's total to ~800 hands, up 1/2 BI, 1.3 BI's below EV. Still getting the chips in good, and not tilting.
21.  05-21-2012 07:03 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by Lucothefish Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed? This made me lol - thanks, Luco! Originally Posted by Keith big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though I went through all my reasons for 70BB buy-in, and I did not find them compelling. I'm now opening all tables, super-short or full, with 100 BB stacks and topping up when I fall below 95ish.
22.  05-21-2012 07:16 PM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up Originally Posted by Robb Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad. cool! I'd imagine your fitness doesn't fit too poorly on the FTR continuum, even without prop bets to get the psyche on! don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
23.  05-22-2012 02:47 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Down about 2 BI today. Variance hit on HU starting tables against a known TAGG, A9 < A6s, 55 < KK, AT < KJ, all 5bet shoves by me after he started 4betting light. Thrilled he'll call off his stack with A6 and KJ, but DAMN. Up and down rest of day, up about a BI in rest of action. No tilt, yet. Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate.
24.  05-22-2012 05:38 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV. Sorry this has turned into a bad beat bitch-fest. I just hope my stakers know I'm getting the chips in good. Hopefully, the variance will even out soon. I think I'm learning this game again, and feeling pretty confident about my reads tonight. Made several big river calls and was right on almost all of them. Bet for value in big pots after putting them on ranges. I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death.
25.  05-22-2012 07:35 AM Luco Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,363 Originally Posted by Robb I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV. This is impressive, well done. Originally Posted by Robb Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate. [ ] relaunch Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
26.  05-22-2012 08:57 AM daven trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,194 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up Originally Posted by Robb I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death. all-in -> minimise i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc. don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
27.  05-22-2012 02:40 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by daven all-in -> minimise i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc. That's awesome - I wish I had that level of discipline. I only have 4 tables going on a 27" monitor, so I see all my tables all the time. I guess I could physically minimize it, though. I'm pretty good at celebrating the "got it all-in good" or "yeah, my read was right." I don't tilt much over single bad beats, it's the garph that really screws up my head, when I keep dropping WAY below the yellow line. Even last night, after several bad beats, I really felt like I was reading my opponents well. I 2-barreled with precision, made a few big river calls (that were right!), refused to bet hopeless flops against the stations, and generally kept out of trouble.
28.  05-28-2012 01:24 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 This is my last week of poker: By robb_in_georgia at 2012-05-28 And on my laptop: Running 11BI behind EV over 4.5k hands. Wow. Just wow. Admittedly, I would be about break-even, not winning, if I ran at EV. I cannot deny there's 2-3 BI's of spew in there, but I have done pretty well avoiding tilt - getting away from the tables when I'm tilting, taking a couple of days off twice this week, etc.
29.  05-28-2012 03:19 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 I've seen these huge downswings, sometimes 25 - 40 BI below EV over weeks and weeks, from FTR icons. I guess this is still just a medium-sized one. Sorry for the bad beat posts, just wanted to look at the last two weeks, since beginning of downswing. Here's the hands from laptop, last two weeks: Will edit in a moment with graph from desktop. So...17 BI below EV over two weeks, or roughly \$70 below expectation. I guess it's not unbelievable, but it's certainly the worst run I've ever had. At least I'm positive EV for the run, despite some tilt-spew (not as much as I would have two years ago, but some). Last edited by Robb; 05-28-2012 at 03:26 PM.
31.  05-31-2012 03:15 AM PlayToWin Join Date Jan 2008 Posts 679 Robb, a part of me wants to see you fail since you have, at times, been very cocky as to how easy nanostakes were to beat. I don't think you're necessarily running bad (my opinion), I think your playing bad. If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap. Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested, and you'll start winning. It's just that simple (maybe). It's definitely a better approach than you've had so far. On the other hand, you seem tight with Daven, so I'd dump your whole BR into lessons from him, if he's agreeable. Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
32.  05-31-2012 04:06 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 Originally Posted by PlayToWin If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap. Check. Originally Posted by PlayToWin Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested Check. Originally Posted by PlayToWin and you'll start winning. Pending...
33.  05-31-2012 10:09 PM PlayToWin Join Date Jan 2008 Posts 679 Hmmm....that was a drunken post! There may be some truth to it, idk. You've done it before (beat micro's) and you can do it again. Good luck! Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
34.  06-01-2012 12:37 AM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 hehe no worries I quit opening tables after 4-5 BI's down, and tightened up to ~ 26/22. A few more BI's dropped and tightened up more, eased off on marginal 3bets/squeezes. Tried to flat less, cbet more carefully, not value town myself. Last 3k hands, I'm running more like 20/18/3. I haven't posted a ton, but I have been in touch with Keith via pm. And I listen carefully every time Daven posts. I believe you and he are both right, him with a gentle reminder to "plug leaks," and you with the more direct version. The downswing isn't nearly as bad if you're playing well despite the bad beats, and I have to own up to the BI's dropped due to the bad decisions I've made at the tables. So I think we agree. And I think we can agree that getting toasted every now and again is a positive life EV, as well. All the best, PTW, good luck at the tables.
35.  06-10-2012 06:15 AM sil693 Join Date Nov 2007 Posts 769 Location Leeds, UK Sup Robb, I always used to check out your blog / posts when I used to play. Seems like you've always tried to explain the reasoning behind what you're doing which is probably my biggest weakness - so reading your stuff forces me to think about that sort of thing. Anyway, I've started up again (2NL 6max) and will be keeping an eye out for your blog posts! GL.
36.  06-10-2012 01:45 PM Robb Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230 I haven't played poker in about 10 days, first due to hectic life surrounding my wife's birthday when several families from out of town visited, then due to Merge's update and the subsequent PT updates needed to play with HUD. My Summer Honors programs starts in a week (oh, lordy), and I have my summer class winding up along with a big consulting project due by Friday. Not sure I'll have time to play the rest of the month. Like to, though.