[spoonitnow strategy] Advanced Value Betting in Simple Scenarios With Game Theory

A Summary of the Process So Far

We’ve done a lot of work over the past two weeks, so let’s summarize what we would do in a river scenario like this one to quickly work out our unexploitable strategies. First we would imagine our opponent’s unexploitable calling range, which is the top B/(B+B+P) percentage of his hands, and we would imagine all of the hands that we hold that beat that range. This group of hands is our unexploitable value betting range. Then we use the size of that range to determine the size of our unexploitable bluffing range based on what percentage our bet size was of the pot.

Continue reading: http://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-s...e-theory-20668

Hey hey, good article as always!

Just checking some math again. Referring to this part:

"

• Step 1: Find the percentage of the pot for the original bet.
• Step 2: Take that percentage of the size of your unexploitable value betting range.

So for example, if you had a $10 pot with a $7.50 bet size, then the bet is 75 percent of the pot. The size of your unexploitable bluffing range will be 75 percent of the size of your unexploitable value betting range. If you decide that your unexploitable value betting range is about 28 combinations, then your unexploitable bluffing range will consist of about 75 percent of that which comes to 21 combinations."

So in your example, we're betting 7.50 into $10, with 28 value combos and 21 bluffing combos. Is that right?
This works out to a bluffing frequency of 21/(28+21) -> 42.8%

But villain is getting 17.50/7.50 pot odds, so he needs to be good 30% (allowing us 30% bluffs). So aren't we bluffing too much? We should only have 30% bluffs, so about 9 or 10 combos?

Just checking. I'm no expert and have only emerged myself into GTO this last year, but wanna make sure I'm not making mistakes! Or if there are shortcuts, I'm always open to them haha.

Two weeks in a row I have been bamboozled by staying up too late working on this stuff.

You multiply the size of your value range by the alpha value (aka: B/(B+P)) to get the size of your bluffing range. Idk where that monkey shit I wrote last night came from. So with your example:

28 * 0.429 = 12

12/(12+28) = 0.3

Ta da!

I'll fix it in the column later. Thanks again.

Oh nice, good shortcut! Geez.. now makes me wonder how I've been trying to calculate it in my head all this time haha.

Yeah knowing the alpha value gives you like the cheat code to a lot of this stuff in terms of the math because it just shows up all over the place.

Nice article. Quick question, from the top of the article:

* When IP bets, B/(B+P) tells us the percentage of the time that he should have a bluff to be unexploitable.
* OOP should call IP’s bets B/(B+B+P) percent of the time to be unexploitable.

Did you accidentally switch those?

ffs yes, fixed

Here's a link to a post in last week's thread where I offered a simple proof of the bluffing frequency:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...19#post2189919

I really liked last years strategy guides from spoonitnow but this year I am struggling,
is this really still Beginners Circle?

Originally Posted by chemist

I really liked last years strategy guides from spoonitnow but this year I am struggling,
is this really still Beginners Circle?

I haven't seen you ask a single question in either of the threads for my column this year.

Also, I'll be in the FTR Chat Room (see my signature) most of the day if people want to talk about it.

[13:46] <spoonitnow> but i mean i don't even play poker, my advice doesn't apply to low stakes, i'm out of touch with today's games,you had reads, w/e excuse is fashionable these days to not listen to shit

I forgot to add that math is for idiots.

Here's a sneak peek of what's coming next week:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I haven't seen you ask a single question in either of the threads for my column this year.

Also, I'll be in the FTR Chat Room (see my signature) most of the day if people want to talk about it.

nope I haven't really understood enough to be able to question it.
its really going over my head.

My game is still more seat of the pants and gut instinct than mathematics as every situation is 'depends' and the random number generators or dealers don't appear to follow the mathematics they are supposed to be dealing,
but I found your first articles improved the instincts.

Originally Posted by chemist

nope I haven't really understood enough to be able to question it.
its really going over my head.

My game is still more seat of the pants and gut instinct than mathematics as every situation is 'depends' and the random number generators or dealers don't appear to follow the mathematics they are supposed to be dealing,
but I found your first articles improved the instincts.

lol ok