WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

sold.

lynch jyms

after hes found to be barky bark, lynch boog all day, joe rogan podcast by night

also if boog is a wolf then i think bigred is a wolf. notice how boog bolded ong like a million times early in last game and i praised him for it. he will remember this, and as a wolf he will go after another wolf early

Originally Posted by wufwugy

sold.

lynch jyms

after hes found to be barky bark, lynch boog all day, joe rogan podcast by night

can you stop being a drunken fickle pickle

ur mom likes me better this way

so apparently the wolves are four of these five: jyms hoopy gabe boog bigred. ship it bank it chug it jam it. dont tell me i didnt solve the game for youse

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I am going to take this as meaning that it is possible that everybody at 2 votes is actually a villager. I'm not going to bank on that, but it could happen.

This is terrible logic. If one or two of these 4 are wolves then the remaining wolves run the risk of looking like they deferred a bandwagon if they vote for one of the other two or even someone else. To me that is as much a plausible reason for the logjam as your reason is.

If anything I doubt either of them include 2 wolves which could be handy in late game decisions.

As for now I think I like a lynch hoopy the best.

Sorry for being absent the past 48 hours, I've had no free time this weekend. I have read the entire thread, but my comprehension isn't 100% right now (I really need sleep right now). Anyway, I'm going to spend the next half hour to hour trying to analyze the thread before I finally head to bed -- I'll post my thoughts. My activity should go back to normal tomorrow, since I'll be back at work (and sitting in front of a computer all day) and better rested.

OK, I'm taking the easy approach for now -- I'm looking at the lowest posters, starting at the bottom and working up.

XTR -- total of 5 posts:
1. blindly lynch jyms
2. Calls Ong and Keith defensive, argues for keeping gabe alive.
3. Calls Ong and Keith "either very bold wolves or just ambitious and overly eager villagers". Also vaguely calls out JV.
4. Switches vote from jyms, who showed up, to fulksy, who was still inactive.
5. Defense post, although I don't like his explanations. Basically, he's saying that he found Ong and Keith suspicious because they were too active and "confident in their arguments". He also implies that Keith was trying to elicit a discussion about the vig's identity, which seems like a twisted version of his words. Then, he votes for Keith.

My opinion -- XTR reminds me of Pascal from last game (wolf) -- low post count, vague accusations, blatant misrepresentation of facts. He keeps trying to lump Ong and Keith into some kind of conspiracy, although I don't see it. He's only the first person I looked at, but I feel like he's pretty wolfy. Combine that with his low activity, and I already have a decent lynch candidate for today.

Side note -- I also quickly read through Keith's posts to see if XTR's points made any sense. Nothing jumped out as wolfy about Keith -- his posts and comments all seemed pretty sensible and well-reasoned. So far, I like Keith as a villager.

im cool with defaulting with gizmo because he's clear villager to me and is legit as fuck player - a true natural who as good from the beginning - so that means xtr is probably a baddy

DropTheBanana -- also only has 5 posts.
1. Agrees that lower post count players should be lynched early, then lynches daven because he asks "I'm new, what do I do?" (even though that could easily have been an ice-breaking early post by a new player).
2. Switches to fulksy, agreeing that daven's activity should keep him alive.
3. Switches to boog for no reason.
4. "My boog lynch was less than serious". Claims he's being inactive because he's trying to analyze the game.
5. Defends his inactivity again. Calls Pascal's posts "odd". Then he lays out an argument against Keith, mainly regarding Keith's ideas about the long night and wolf tactics.

Honestly, Banana has almost no content in his 5 posts. His last post has some interesting comments about Keith, but definitely nothing that merits lynching Keith (it's mainly some pretty thin speculation).

Deciding between XTR and Banana is tough -- I get a wolfy vibe from XTR, but Banana isn't contributing much of anything right now. It's basically "low content" vs "wolfy low content" - so I guess I still prefer the latter (XTR).

I like gizmo's thinking and it echoes my own. I would choose one of those two all day based on both post quality and quantity.

I don't really follow gabe's reasoning. Ongbonga will hang himself as a wolf due to his inflated ego and inability to shut up. He's also a useful villager so I can't see why we'd consider lynching him.

I can kinda see how hoopy could be a good lynch candidate but again I'm swayed by activity. Aside from removing silence as a viable wolf strategy and how much harder it is to get a read on inactives, it's also more fun as the game progresses to be playing with more active players.

I'm getting a wierd vibe from gabe.
post 351

Originally Posted by gabe

whats the evidence on boog? him pushing for fulksy lynch isnt wolfy at all. i also thought fulsky was clearly the best lynch on day 1 and im a villager. the evidence for pascal is greater than boog.

post 363

Originally Posted by gabe

the cases for jyms/bigred are all built on nothing and the case for boog is misinformed
.....................................
pascal is a better lynch than boog. like pascal said, keith made a very sherlock holmes-esque circumstantial read (probably coincidence stuff most of the time), but combined with the other stuff, pascal makes more sense. hes trying to seem not competent enough. cmon keith you can switch your vote especially if youre encouraging the vig to shoot pascal
hoopy is a better lynch than jyms. a wagon got pointed at jyms because of his low initial activity, but thats been somewhat explained by him referencing out-of-game content. jyms shouldnt have a wagon now, but he can only make excuses for so long. hoopy has done noticably suspicious stuff (his posts havent been as constructive mostly). this post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127390 might seem like a joke, but my senses tell me a wolf makes this joke way more often than a villager

im still on pascal

Why is he pushing so hard for there being no evidence against boog and jyms and almost trying to make them seem as separate wagons yet totally ignoring the case i was making against them as a pair that whilst jyms hadn't logged in because of his wifi problems boog was ok with lynching inactives with no distinction between fulksey and jyms. minutes before jyms makes his first post though boog has a sudden change of heart and is saying anyone lynching jyms must be a wolf and jyms is way more valuable to the village than fulksey. You don't find this suspicious?

You're right my case against a boog/jyms/pascal team is based on the out of game skype post that pascal made. its circumstantial. But i find it interesting that you want me to swap away from boog and lynch pascal.Do you have knowledge that pascal is going to come up as an inept villager and then use that to further argue against lynching boog and/or jyms.

If you really want to see pascal dead , why not join with me in urging the vig to shoot him , he will be just as dead tomorow as he would be if we lynch him. Lynching pascal and him coming back villager doesn't really help the vig and seer tonight in fact you probably make it more likely that he hits the seer than if he targets pascal. I doubt a seer pascal would have made so many stupid mistakes as he did because he's more likely to be reading the thread closely and not missing the daven noob references.

lynching boog and him coming back a villager goes a long way to clearing jyms , but if boog comes back as a wolf then jyms is likely to be a wolf too.
If boog comes wolf and jyms comes up as wolf then your posts above start to make you look very suspicious as well especially since you pressed the fulksey lynch hard rather than giving him time to turn up and make a defence.

Either way , a boog lynch gives the village more info to work with going forward and if he comes back a villager ,it will indirectly clear you of being a wolf. Show us that you are a villager with nothing to fear from a boog lynch . Swap to boog and lets try to kill Pascal by calling for him to be shot by the Vig.

Ah gizmo posted his analysis. I was a wolf with him the last game I played, he's hard to spot as such but he also has strong analysis and seems legit atm. Keith seems to be playing like I remember him playing in the past. Rong also gives off a strong villager vibe, I don't think he'd ever play this active and confrontational if he was a wolf.

Can't quite place Gabe or Aubry atm. And I'm not feeling the love for a boog lynch.. I have a bit of a read on how he acts as a wolf and this doesn't strike me as such. We should be able to tell more in the future, unless he goes very inactive.

I'm mostly suspicious of Hoopy and XTR. TLR spoke out against XTR and was nommed, but we can't say much about that, we don't expect wolves to play this obvious, so it could be either. I hope he posts some more.

For now,
lynch hoopy

What's the vote count?

I'm willing to switch from hoopy to Pascal if it makes sense to do so.

Four votes were cast since the last votecount so:

Hoopy(3): bigred, gator, jackvance,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, hoopy
Bigred(1): Boog690
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
Jyms(2): Bikes, wuf
Keith(1): xtr1000

Oops, I had one number wrong (hoopy) and edited it without thinking, hope it's ok..

It's only ok if you're a villager, otherwise modkill for cheating.

this is the biggest abortion of a sentence so ill respond to it

Originally Posted by Keith

Why is he pushing so hard for there being no evidence against boog and jyms and almost trying to make them seem as separate wagons yet totally ignoring the case i was making against them as a pair that whilst jyms hadn't logged in because of his wifi problems boog was ok with lynching inactives with no distinction between fulksey and jyms.

-the "evidence" against boog depends on jyms being a wolf. just because what you say is possible, it doesnt make it more likely that boog is a wolf IMO
-im not ignoring the case, ive read all your posts, some multiple times, and i just dont think what you have is good enough to go on
-there is a distinction between fulksy and jyms. boog made the same read i did (and i know im a villager) so i dont think its suspicious. the difference between fulksy and jyms is i know jyms likes posting a ton in the game, so his excuse makes perfect sense. fulksy hasnt ever done anything that i remember in a werewolf game, so it was far more likely he would be a true inactive, and possibly get modkilled. those were my thoughts so it wasnt suspicious at all that boog also thought that way

also in general im against the vig being trigger happy

and i wont say boog wont possibly be a good lynch in the future

Originally Posted by bikes

will be reading this thread and posting thoughts after pats game

Originally Posted by bikes

.

uh is that what you came up with????

i see this as more wolfy than lazy. bikes stays on the radar

Originally Posted by rong

I don't really follow gabe's reasoning. Ongbonga will hang himself as a wolf due to his inflated ego and inability to shut up. He's also a useful villager so I can't see why we'd consider lynching him.

ongbong always has the inability to shut up. often i think, is he a wolf playing a bad trick, or just being a illogical/wannabe-soulreader villager? im pretty much always thinking this about his posts. maybe you guys have a different take on him, but i never really factor in what hes saying because of the characteristics you mentioned. i would love for him to prove me wrong...

this is my favorite pascal post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127530

Originally Posted by Pascal

I missed one post, obv a wolf. Not a revenge lynch, it's the fact you say I'm doing what I did last game makes me wolfy when you're doing exactly the same thing you did last game

he starts off acknowledging not noticing daven's post on it being davens first game, then becomes extremely defensive and accusing ongbonga of making an accusation ongbonga didnt make. the dialog between them was within an hours time and they were the only ones in the thread, but he still mistates "the fact you say I'm doing what I did last game makes me wolfy when..." when ongbonga clearly said nothing like that.

gabe doesn't give me enough love.

I'm gonna finish reading everyone's posts soon.

Originally Posted by aubreymcfate

Hoopy also called me a he instead of a she. Personally I don't really care since it makes sense to assume guy until proven otherwise, but I've been referred to as a she enough for anyone closely reading the thread to take note of it...

Easy to forget stuff like that, apologies.

How can you forget aubrey is a she? It's wuf's mom. Even if she isn't wuf's mom, she is from now on.

lynch wuf's mom

See?

rescind, wasn't a serious vote.

Jack, you're suspicious of XTR and hoopy, and you vote for the active one of the two? Why? Surely an XTR lynch is the way to go today if he's giving off wolf vibes to people?

lynch XTR1000

Wolfy and inactive. I might change my vote after I've read up, but there's no promise it'll all get done before deadline. I'll try. Got a cup of tea now so let's have a look at wuf, he's next on the list.

bikes is usually more aggressive with his posts, like by now I'd expect him to be telling us we're all idiots for trying to draw conclusions on day 2.

bigred is less active than his post count indicates ldo, but his last couple have some content in them.

Originally Posted by gabe

this is my favorite pascal post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127530

he starts off acknowledging not noticing daven's post on it being davens first game, then becomes extremely defensive and accusing ongbonga of making an accusation ongbonga didnt make. the dialog between them was within an hours time and they were the only ones in the thread, but he still mistates "the fact you say I'm doing what I did last game makes me wolfy when..." when ongbonga clearly said nothing like that.

This is good stuff.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

This is good stuff.

It would be good stuff if it wasn't contradictory to his earlier posts. I mean one the one hand he's saying I'm illogical and erratic, but on the other hand he's using my debate with pascal to point the finger at him. So if I'm pressing wolves into mistakes, I'm not that useless, am I? So why does he want me gone? Why is he trying to impress the idea that I'm not an asset to the village?

Ew girls, I quit!

Originally Posted by rong

It's only ok if you're a villager, otherwise modkill for cheating.

I'm good then.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Jack, you're suspicious of XTR and hoopy, and you vote for the active one of the two? Why? Surely an XTR lynch is the way to go today if he's giving off wolf vibes to people?

I vote for my preferred target, who I think is most likely to be a wolf, nothing more to it than that. I can switch to XTR if he stays inactive, or bold him the next day, if he stays out of sight.

Hm and some good posts by Gabe there.

Originally Posted by gabe

this is the biggest abortion of a sentence so ill respond to it

-the "evidence" against boog depends on jyms being a wolf. just because what you say is possible, it doesnt make it more likely that boog is a wolf IMO
-im not ignoring the case, ive read all your posts, some multiple times, and i just dont think what you have is good enough to go on

what you are ignoring though is that boog didn't distinguish between fulksy and jyms when neither of them had logged in.Two minutes before jyms makes his first post boog is saying that anyone voting jyms must be a wolf. Isn't that all too convenient?. By not committing himself either way before hand , should a lynch look likely and if boog and jyms are both wolves, the wolves could then switch to lynching Jyms if he was still uncontactable and getting him killed rather than modkilled as an inactive. they therefore gain villager cred. When Jyms showed up though , the wolves then switched to getting fulksy killed and bringing the day to an end.

If we lynch boog it gives us a good read on jyms, boog is likely to be fairly inactive and if boog and jyms are wolves we can examine the fulksy lynch in more detail.

-there is a distinction between fulksy and jyms. boog made the same read i did (and i know im a villager) so i dont think its suspicious. the difference between fulksy and jyms is i know jyms likes posting a ton in the game, so his excuse makes perfect sense. fulksy hasnt ever done anything that i remember in a werewolf game, so it was far more likely he would be a true inactive, and possibly get modkilled. those were my thoughts so it wasnt suspicious at all that boog also thought that way

theres no evidence that boog made that read. he was ambivalent between jyms and fulksey until moments before jyms made his first post.

also in general im against the vig being trigger happy

and i wont say boog wont possibly be a good lynch in the future

read the vig description, theres no storing bullets , its the EVEN NIGHT VIG and says "On every even numbered night, you may send me the name of one target player". You want pascal dead , whats wrong with the vig shooting him?

Vote Count 2.03
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(1): Rong
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy
Keith(1): xtr1000
XTR1000(1): Ongbonga

Not Voting: Pascal, Aubrey, nightgizmo, and dropthebanana

Deadline is in 8hrs and 46 minutes. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

If you've seen me post VC, It just means im place holding for a vote count :3

Originally Posted by Keith

theres no evidence that boog made that read. he was ambivalent between jyms and fulksey until moments before jyms made his first post.

This is a really good point. Boog only noted the value difference between them after jyms was chosen over fulksy.

Before that, he simply said: "Let's cut the fat. Jyms and fulksy still inactive. Let's not let ourselves let the wolves go inactive again. It's an easy road to victory that we need to block." I believe that was post 92?

He could have made it a point to say there that he thinks jyms is higher value, but he didn't, maybe because he thought it would look shady, and hoped that people would pick fulksy instead.

At the same time, it's possible that he just didn't think about it until people started lynching jyms.

Still, jyms's timing is suspicious... Almost too suspicious. Couldn't they have waited a bit if they had that planned? Like, try to envision the wolf chat. "shit jyms, they're onto you - let me defend you and then you quickly return right after. that won't look weird at all." That's just silly.

So I dunno, I'm torn on boogs. I do think lynching him or jyms will put this whole thing to rest though. Is it worth losing a villager if it means we can definitely rule out at least 2 people as not being wolves?

Just done my XTR read and I'm not sold. rescind

Wufwugy - he makes me laugh. He thinks boog is goat wolf (he's not, gator is), but he's always quick to deny credit to wolves when they float by with minimal input. Boog was in between the two last game, he was both awesome and relatively inactive. But I like wuf, he's like me, he wants to own the shit out of the game on d1, he has an ego to match mine. In fact I think his might be bigger. Anyway, wuf is talking a lot, throwing a lot of votes around, and is probably a villager.
bolds - boog (random), pascal, gabe, bigred, pascal, fulsky, hoopy, bigred, jyms

Read - villager

Ongbonga - Obv I'm a villager, but have my voting history to date...
bolds - bikes, gabe, wuf, bigred, hoopy, tlr (< all random noise), pascal, XTR, pascal, pascal (again lol), XTR, banana, XTR

Jackvance - Suspect. Checks in casually, as hoopy picked up on. First vote for daven, a noob who's showing us he could be strong for the village. Refutes a jyms/gator link. Doesn't remember how banana has played in the past, even though he's been wolf with him (and me), suggests he's a disinterested villager, something I'm yet to see banana do.
bolds - daven, hoopy

Read - suspect, linked to banana

XTR1000 - very quiet, the more he stays this quiet, the more I think he's villager. Calling me suspect after my exchange with pascal caused alarm, so if pascal flips wolf, then I'm looking at XTR as a serious suspect. Brushes off the pascal link, seems sincere.
bolds - jyms, fulsky, keith

Read - leaning villager. Potential mislynch bait imo.

Need food, more later.

I read through bike's posts. There is literally no content there. I can give him a pass for Day 1 -- the flu sucks. But day 2 has literally been "I'll read the thread later" and then a blank post. He's in the same category as XTR and Banana, although he has even less actual content than either of them. That being said, because of his extremely low content, I can't find anything overtly wolfy about him. But this level of activity from 3+ players is not going to help the us win.

Originally Posted by Keith

what you are ignoring though is that boog didn't distinguish between fulksy and jyms when neither of them had logged in.Two minutes before jyms makes his first post boog is saying that anyone voting jyms must be a wolf.

no, im not ignoring that, my stance is that boog didnt need to explain why jyms was a bad lynch if it was between [fulksy, bigred, jyms]. i think him suggesting fulsky on page 2 is natural. this is reinforced by the fact i made the same conclusion he did (that fulsky clearly made the most sense), yet i didnt feel the need to explain this.

the timing thing is the only thing thats kinda fishy. i think if you look at all the times where boog and jyms are a wolf, the way it played out is rare. that is, boog saying dont lynch jyms, then jyms posting 2 minutes later for the first time. they are both WW vets and would very likely be more careful than you give credit for.

Originally Posted by Keith

Isn't that all too convenient?. By not committing himself either way before hand , should a lynch look likely and if boog and jyms are both wolves, the wolves could then switch to lynching Jyms if he was still uncontactable and getting him killed rather than modkilled as an inactive. they therefore gain villager cred. When Jyms showed up though , the wolves then switched to getting fulksy killed and bringing the day to an end.
If we lynch boog it gives us a good read on jyms, boog is likely to be fairly inactive and if boog and jyms are wolves we can examine the fulksy lynch in more detail.

i know the story, and i see how its possible but that doesnt have me convinced its likely at all. it seems just like another one of the thousand convenient connections we could make trying to pair wolves amid the bandwagoning and dispersing. besides, like i said, doesnt boog being a wolf depend on jyms being one? like if jym isnt a wolf, then none of your evidence for boog is good. building a case on someone based on someone else being a wolf is a bad idea early on IMO (its good to develop these lines so we know what info we're getting, but id rather take our best shot at getting a wolf). if you insist on sticking to your story, id rather go for jyms than boog.

right before boog defended jyms, jyms was leading the votes with: Jyms (4): XTR1000, Keith, GatorJH, Aubrey

so if jyms turns up innocent maybe we get xtr or gator?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

It would be good stuff if it wasn't contradictory to his earlier posts.

the pascal post is good evidence, but you are saying its not good evidence because it contradicts me saying you are erratic/not helpful. this is an obvious fallacy. thanks for making it so easy

As much as it sucks when wolves lay low until the endgame I don´t think punishing inactivity alone is key. I can walk around and post rubbish all day and still contribute nothing but thin air (well actually I cant because of work and training and because everyones asleep when I get home but scratch that).

What does generate valuable info for the village are voting patterns - hence I think we should put some pressure on the non-voters like Hoopy, Aubrey or gizmo. Not to say we should rush the next lynch, but it´s way too easy for a wolf to not have an opinion and to just ride the villages mood.

I have also looked at the votes for pascal. Not because I´m particularly suspicious of him, he just stands out a bit, especially to someone like me who doesnt know half the people here. Pascal appears to be a rather easy target, carrying a mediocre rep and getting heat from gabe and ong. Yet his bw doesnt take off, which means the wolves are either absurdly careful and reluctant to bw early or Pascal is likely to be a wolf.

I do rescind Keith and vote to lynch Pascal for now, gizmo, she aubrey and hoopy being viable options as well


Pascal (1): Gabe
Not Voting: Hoopy, Pascal, Rong, Bikes, Jyms, Jackvance, XTR1000, Dropthebanana, Daven, TLR, Gator, Aubrey, Nightgizmo, Fulsky, Keith, and Bigred.

Pascal (2): Ongbonga, TLR
Not Voting: Hoopy, Rong, Jyms, Jackvance, Daven, Nightgizmo, Fulsky, and Bigred.

Pascal (2): TLR, Daven
Not Voting: Hoopy, Jackvance, Nightgizmo, Fulsky, and GatorJH

Pascal (4): TLR, Daven, Ongbonga, Wufwugy
Not Voting, , Fulsky, Rong, Bikes, and Jyms
(At this point the bw on fulsky is picking up momentum)

Pascal (4): TLR, Daven, Ongbonga
Not Voting.: Fulksy and Rong.
(fulsky is dead)

Pascal (0)
Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jyms, Jackvance, xtr1000, daven, gabe, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo

Pascal(2): Daven, Gabe
Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jackvance, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo, dropthebanana

Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy
Not Voting: Pascal, Aubrey, nightgizmo, and dropthebanana

Originally Posted by gabe

this is my favorite pascal post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2127530

he starts off acknowledging not noticing daven's post on it being davens first game, then becomes extremely defensive and accusing ongbonga of making an accusation ongbonga didnt make. the dialog between them was within an hours time and they were the only ones in the thread, but he still mistates "the fact you say I'm doing what I did last game makes me wolfy when..." when ongbonga clearly said nothing like that.

I disagree with this, I read Ong's post as implying that I was doing what I was doing last game. Probably because I'd just read this post where he does say exactly that:

Anyway pascal got wolf again, he's lazily hopping on to other people's reads

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...13-post71.html

Also, lol at trying to wagon me when there are so many inactives. Everyone at the beginning of the game was all like "let's go after the inactives" and XTR/DTB have made 5 posts each. And Bigred has managed to make 32 posts without actually really saying anything. Sick posting tekkers there.

Of XTR and DTB, I summed it up here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2128558 . I'd be happy to lynch either of them but I'm going for lynch XTR

Lol timing again. XTR's actually contributed to the village so rescind XTR

lynch DTB

ongbonga said "Anyway pascal got wolf again, he's lazily hopping on to other people's reads" which is what made you say "it's the fact you say I'm doing what I did last game makes me wolfy when" a few posts later, and within the hour. thats fair but you still seemed overly defensive when you only had 2 votes on yourself (and one is from the most erratic poster we have)

nice post xtr, that should buy you some time

Gabe - you're wrong when you say I'm unhelpful. I suspect a bitter tone in your posts, because you got owned by ongabonga and pascal last game. Bahahahaha.

I mean really, I'm a better lynch than bigred? Have you compared our posts, not just in this game, but every one we ever played in together? No, of course not, you're just randomly pointing at me because, well, I guess last game annoyed you. Let it go, bro.

that is, boog saying dont lynch jyms, then jyms posting 2 minutes later for the first time. they are both WW vets and would very likely be more careful than you give credit for.

This is an astute observation. Boog was on my wagon real early last game, and it was the core reason he escaped rilla's sights. Boog is a very careful wolf. So I can't see this jyms/boog link that keith is pressing.

If anyone links to jyms this early, I think it's pascal, but that's really thin. I'm more interested in the banana/jv link. Banana is really concerning me with his quietness, and jv giving him "uninterested villager" status still sits badly with me. I've only seen banana quiet once, when I was wolf with him and jv. They top my wolf list right now.

fwiw I think gabe is villager.

I'll join the banana wagon again. lynch banana

Post more, yellow fruit.

Awesome, DTB is leading again. I had typed up a post explaining why he is a better lynch than sny of the others mentioned at this point in time but I shan't bother with it now he's leading the race again.

forgot to mention earlier that i'll be afk for about 30hrs - going away for a stag party. Leaving in about 3hrs. Just telling y'all now cos otherwise i can imagine the lot of yas going on weird 'daven is inactive' tangents.

I just skimmed over the last few pages and I'm about to do a more thorough read through, there are heaps of new posts but nothing really interesting stands out at first glance on the voting front. I'm more and more zoning in on Pascal/Jyms/Hoopy. There still seem to be a bunch of inactives, but it seems that there is a theme to leave inactives alone? i don't like it - we get no info from inactives and it suggests to me that there are at least some wolves hiding that way.

Originally Posted by gabe

uh is that what you came up with????

i see this as more wolfy than lazy. bikes stays on the radar

more of dear lawd kill me now. benard pollard has shattered the dreams of the new england patriots for the fourth time.

inactive people annoy me. i never understand wtf pascal is talking about. ong and wuf are doing their usual talk out of their ass and eventually something sticks and they claim godmode. bigred is doing the standard bigred of having lots of 'bigred fun' while not providing anything of actual value but we all love bigred so we keep him around. boog seems to be genuinely annoyed at the bigred fun so he wants him to gone. gator seems quiet but again given that it's the weekend and the playoffs were on sunday i can't say i fault him. gabe is the master of levels and i can never understand which level he's on. i just assume it's the level ahead of whichever level i'm thinking on

the only person i find actually suspicious through posting is jyms as he's usually absurdly thick skinned and not so this game so i kept my vote as jyms.

I'm going vote jyms as well

due not only to inactivity but a strange lack of defensiveness. that might sound weird but i find it just as likely for any villager to be defensive when accused of being wolfy. however i've noticed you guys equate defensiveness to wolfiness quite a few times (not always warranted imo), and it could be a ploy to lay low despite the accusations.

Having a look through some more posts for some reads.

Jyms seems to have slipped by unnoticed pretty much. His excuse is pretty weak - "Fwiw, I'm just staying out of the fray a little for now, I think last time I brought too much heat on myself early and want to play more Bigred style and get some endgame play for a change". Seems like a great cover for avoiding posting anything, avoiding any heat knowing there's other more inactive players and staying out of trouble. Will also mean it's harder to get reads on him in late game because he'll have way less posts than anyone else. He also here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...0-post118.html that lynching inactives was good then decides to go inactive, wtf? He loves confrontation and arguing, why would he avoid it? Looks to me like he's realised that he can stay under the radar as inactives aren't getting lynched.

Bikes has been pretty inactive, says he has the flu (which is probs true) but he's contributed very little and just because he has the flu doesn't mean he can't be a wolf. He's used other people's reads and said he would post thoughts after the Pats game but didn't, just agreed with something wuf said. When I did something like that it's apparently wolfy which must make bikes look wolfy. He's also gone for lynches by saying stuff like "something doesnt sit right with jyms so lets lynch jyms" which is pretty meh.

Jackvance has made a low number of posts but at least they're mainly useful, but would like to see more posting from him

was writing that post while cooking dinner so didn't see bikes & aubrey before I posted, but yeah same idea

I'm finding more reasons to not be suspicious of people rather than reasons to be. Definitely a tough roster.

I like the fact that Gabe is using his resources to defend against illogical reasoning rather than lead bandwagon crusades. He played the voice of reason last game and I was for sure he had something up his sleeve since it's such a non standard way to play. (Especially since I was on the receiving end of his bolds)

Wolves tend to use the majority of their arguments against people and not for them.

Along with what I've mentioned about Keith, Pascal, and Daven, I find it odd that Jyms isn't entertaining more thoughts out loud.

I've only played with him once but he was right in the thick of things pointing fingers, making arguments, etc. Then he said he was going to remain a high frequency poster, but is lacking there.**

I think he froze up and is playing a more neutral role now that he pulled wolf since he caught so much shit for his previous play style.

I find this information the most damning.

Lynch Jyms

** I realize this is a pot/kettle statement coming from me. I'm not criticizing his lack of posting just noting an abnormality.

Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy, Xtr1000

Not Voting: nightgizmo

Deadline is in 7hours, 1min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

Superbowl squares!!!!!!!!!!!!!

there is heaps of interesting information in this thread.
first, a question. Rong, did you mean to post this here? or elsewhere?

Originally Posted by rong

Awesome, DTB is leading again. I had typed up a post explaining why he is a better lynch than sny of the others mentioned at this point in time but I shan't bother with it now he's leading the race again.

Do you guys actually think that jyms will make such a drastic and deliberate change to his playstyle when he gets wolf? Because I don't.

i don't like lynching any of wuf/ong/boog today because they're active and i can't see any of them getting lynched without a wolf pile-on. There are a lot of clues in their posts though, and i don't think they'll be able to survive much longer if they are wolves, particularly given that their weight of content makes them likely look-up targets. Then again, I can't think of too many players who aren't good look-ups.

I'm almost ready to switch to jymz. I like it more than a pascal vote.

I'm Iphoning during the day so no super in depth bigred analysis until night time.

Originally Posted by aubreymcfate

I'm going vote jyms as well

due not only to inactivity but a strange lack of defensiveness. that might sound weird but i find it just as likely for any villager to be defensive when accused of being wolfy. however i've noticed you guys equate defensiveness to wolfiness quite a few times (not always warranted imo), and it could be a ploy to lay low despite the accusations.

You´ve got a point there. Yet theres the difference that a villager trying to stay alive just for the sake of it risks trading his life for another villager, while the wolf knows who is who and can hence try to redirect the mob towards a member of the other team and act with more confidence. Yes, every villager has the obligation to fight for his life, but he has to do so by contributing to the wolf hunt, not by throwing other innocents under the bus.

Given that the Passy train wont run I rescind Pascal and switch to DTB to see whats what.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Do you guys actually think that jyms will make such a drastic and deliberate change to his playstyle when he gets wolf? Because I don't.

If the game was set up like the last one, my answer would be no. But...

He was a massive lynch candidate almost every day last game with that high volume/go get 'em play style. I ABSOLUTELY think he'd tone it down a notch to ward off those kind of heavy accusations again. More so now that we have specials.

Im useless in counting votes. redo vote, rescind dtb, lynch Pascal

The people on each wagon is interesting, there are 4 players with 3 or more votes.
Hoopy wagon has 3 low content players (Bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance), none of whom i have much of a read on yet. I doubt that a situation would occur where 3 wolves trying to get by as relative inactives end up all voting for the same player though. This makes me think that at least a couple of these players are villagers. Which makes it seem more likely that Hoopy is wolf.

Dropthebanana has 3 interesting voters (Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga). All of whom look at least a bit wolfy (rong mostly due to his post that i quoted above though, i'll do a read through of his posts once i'm done with this).

Jyms has 4 players on him (Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana). For now i feel like Wuf and Aubrey are village, Bikes could be doing anything with any role because he's being relatively inactive, and Dropthebanana is also low content. I've been suspicious of Jyms ever since a wagon started on him as inactive and then he insta-turned up. Then he posts an excuse (post 305) for not posting for a while which seems to be a good way for a wolf who knows he looks suspicious to attempt to just disappear for a while.

Pascal has 4 players on him (me, Gabe, Hoopy, XTR1000). Hoopy looks wolf, Gabe has made interesting posts, XTR1000 looks suspicious but low content. I'm leaning away from Pascal for now, mostly because i think he won't be able to last another day without outing himself if he's a wolf.

Interesting... pascal was on 4, first to get there... XTR's rescind and revote took pascal down to 3, and back to 4... who now gets lynched if it stays like this? That could be a coached rescind / revote in order to change the tiebreak.

Further evidence linking XTR to pascal.

rescind, lynch pascal

This is really dodgy. How does XTR miss the vote count above? Wolfy as hell. I'm down with either XTR or pascal, I prefer XTR since if I'm wrong it's less of a loss, but XTR is not getting votes right now. If people express an interest in his wagon, I'll happily flip.

i want to wait a while before moving my vote, mostly because i want to see if Rong responds to my question regarding his post about Droptothebanana

I think Jyms looks like a really good lynch for now, and I'm suspicious that (again) his wagon is reaching 4 votes then stalling. XTR1000 moving his vote looks wolfy as hell, seems as though he's trying to get another wagon moving faster than Jyms'. Pascal is being really active, he's still managing to look like a somewhat confused wolf though.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Do you guys actually think that jyms will make such a drastic and deliberate change to his playstyle when he gets wolf? Because I don't.

He's played both wolf and villager before and not played like this so it isn't evidence either way in that regard, but I think it more likely he'd this way as wolf than villager. He isn't a bad lynch imo, bit I think all of xtr, dtb and bikes are playing the perfect wolf strategy of lay low, throw out a few posts with a little analysis and then disappear again, never really acknowledging or arguing with the accusations being thrown at you. Hence why I wanna lynxh em.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Interesting... pascal was on 4, first to get there... XTR's rescind and revote took pascal down to 3, and back to 4... who now gets lynched if it stays like this? That could be a coached rescind / revote in order to change the tiebreak. .

be good to get an answer on this

Originally Posted by rong

He's played both wolf and villager before and not played like this so it isn't evidence either way in that regard, but I think it more likely he'd this way as wolf than villager. He isn't a bad lynch imo, bit I think all of xtr, dtb and bikes are playing the perfect wolf strategy of lay low, throw out a few posts with a little analysis and then disappear again, never really acknowledging or arguing with the accusations being thrown at you. Hence why I wanna lynxh em.

I was thinking this earlier. It's also really unlikely that all of the respected high quality posters are villagers. I targeted Ong to start with and they could easily be trying to wagon me to protect Ong. Doubt this is gonna be a popular post tho

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Interesting... pascal was on 4, first to get there... XTR's rescind and revote took pascal down to 3, and back to 4... who now gets lynched if it stays like this? That could be a coached rescind / revote in order to change the tiebreak.

Further evidence linking XTR to pascal.

I honestly think this is just mental masturbation what you're doing here.

So you don't see anything suspect there jv? Are you the one who suggested that rescind / revote?

Mental masturbation indeed... and I've ejaculated a team of pascal, xtr, jv and banana. It came out of my nose.

a jyms vote will bring as much info as a boog vote

rescind boog lynch jyms

Originally Posted by OngBonga

XTR's rescind and revote took pascal down to 3, and back to 4... who now gets lynched if it stays like this? That could be a coached rescind / revote in order to change the tiebreak.

mental masturbation perhaps, but pretty astute observation as well imo.
if this sort of trickery works as ong suggests it might then this would be a tool that would only be of value to wolves as far as i can tell. Has this happened before? is it at all possible that the wolf team knows this is how it works while we don't?

Oh, you actually want me to respond to that daven? I thought it was a joke comment as I could see how it could make sense in the way you are implying. But ok, why in the hell would I post it here by accident? The wolves den is typically on a different forum or message board or w/e, so it would be a ridiculous mistake to make. Secondly, that post ties in with all my posts to date. Thirdly, dtb would be an odd choice for the wolves to be so pleased about gettin lynched, and that post, if read as one wolf posting to the others, would sound like they were very pleased about it. So it doesn't make much sense for that to be an accidental post by a wolf.

so jyms is now in the lead with 5 (hoopy 3, pascal 4, dtb 3 (but gizmo hasnt voted and he liked dtb)). if jyms is a wolf, the votes are close enough that it might only take 2 of them switching to save their wolf buddy. if there arent vote changes, he shouldnt be a wolf.

so whats our strategy to counter this? narrow it down to 2? if we decide as a village to do this the wolves would try very hard to have 2 villagers on the chopping block and hopefully their efforts would give us plenty of info if we come up empty on the lynch

I'm going to stick to one of the main wagons, to avoid spreading out all our votes like last game.

Pascal - he's fairly active, so I don't see a reason to kill him yet when we have much better options today.
Jyms - I reviewed his posts -- he is yet another player with almost no content. He even admits that his strategy this game is to lay low and hope to make it to endgame.
Banana - I've covered this -- basically the same as jyms.

I don't see much of a difference between jyms and banana, and I think both are far better lynch choices than pascal right now, so I'm casting my vote where I think it will do the most work to get one of these inactives to step up and start posting.

lynch jyms

ok good. jyms took a commanding lead, and his last 2 votes come from likely villagers on my list (keith,gizmo). he has enough of a lead where the wolves would be crazy to try and start a mass switch to someone else without implicating themselves. this gives us security because if it was close (and the voters who put jyms in the lead were strong wolf candidates), then we would have to worry about switching from jyms in the 25th hour, because it would be unlikely he was a wolf

lynch jyms

Originally Posted by daven

mental masturbation perhaps, but pretty astute observation as well imo.
if this sort of trickery works as ong suggests it might then this would be a tool that would only be of value to wolves as far as i can tell. Has this happened before? is it at all possible that the wolf team knows this is how it works while we don't?

I think it's the first time we've used this form of tiebreak here at FTR. It's standard at the site me and JKDS have been playing at.

I'm not sure how it works though, I don't know if XTR's rescind and revote changed the tiebreak. JKDS will need to clear that up for us. I don't think for a minute XTR did that on his own back, if that is a wolf move, then there's a wolf between gator and jv, with jv looking a lot more suspicious, not least for his mental masturbation comment. I feel jv is really likely to be a wolf, he's actively lurking, he's aware what's going on without making too many posts. His vote for hoopy when he finds hoopy and XTR suspicious is strange, and if he and XTR are wolves, it's consistent with his wolf strat. jv does not like to sacrifice his buddies early; when me, banana and jack were all wolves, we hardly touched each other until we were running out of options.

JKDS - please clarify the tiebreak rule for us, thank you.

Guys, stop ploughing onto jyms. If he's a wolf then headasplode. He'd have piped up by now, jyms will not sit quietly as wolf while getting votes.

Originally Posted by rong

Oh, you actually want me to respond to that daven? I thought it was a joke comment as I could see how it could make sense in the way you are implying. But ok, why in the hell would I post it here by accident? The wolves den is typically on a different forum or message board or w/e, so it would be a ridiculous mistake to make. Secondly, that post ties in with all my posts to date. Thirdly, dtb would be an odd choice for the wolves to be so pleased about gettin lynched, and that post, if read as one wolf posting to the others, would sound like they were very pleased about it. So it doesn't make much sense for that to be an accidental post by a wolf.

^ cheers
it seemed strange to me. Re 'why in the hell would i post it here by accident?' => "cos you wouldn't do it on purpose" was what i was wondering. I was hoping that you'd made a sloppy mistake that screamed wolf cos getting an easy wolf would be nice. But based on what you've posted now, it sounds like it's a mistake that just isn't very likely to occur.