Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.

But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.