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FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

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  1. #976
    gabe's Avatar
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    i dont understand the gabe luco connection either. you are forcing the read
  2. #977
    It will really mess up my reads if wuf is somehow village. I guess I would be looking at gabe and bikes

    If wuf is wolf- claiming BID is a villager so hard could be a set up to get BID lynched. This makes me think BID is more town.

    I'm really thinking at least 2 of the wolves are arguing amongst each other to help the endgame.
    Wuf voting gabe but calling bikes a wolf for sure could be an example of this.
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  3. #978
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    GF is thinking like a villager. I think he's spot-on regarding two wolves currently bantering to set up for endgame.
  4. #979
    Well, here it is:


    BID - I've always said I don't read him well. Ong has always said he reads him very well. There is a decent chance (I'm guessing about 33%) that Ong looked him up. Ong said he thinks he's a villager and isn't concerned. I'm gonna take Ong's word for it. Other than that, I haven't made much head or toes of the idea that Creds was the first sub due to not being vanilla. I've made a case for why that could be, but also why it wouldn't be. I'm gonna ignore it and go with better ideas. That idea is Ong possibly looking him up and Ong saying he reads BID well

    Conclusion: BID IS A VILLAGER!


    Bikes - Baud said he's a wolf. Bikes said he waits till Day 4 to prove he's the bizness, yet it's Day 4 and he's done fuckall except some noise that any wolfie with no real opinion could post. Bikes was Rilla's #2 baddy pick. I don't for a second buy that Rilla was killed for anything other than value. Bikes has acted strangely about Gabe. Normally he would want to lynch Gabe early since he thinks Gabe is so dangerous, but now he thinks that nutlow idea that Rilla was killed to frame Gabe. Funny how an easier way to kill Gabe would be to just leave Rilla alive and let him go for it. When I look across the meadow to see who has been doing the least yet trying to look active, Bikes is there, prancing about, clutching dandelions in his fists

    Conclusion: BIKES IS A WOLF!


    Gabe - Rilla was right. That read alone is enough for me to want Gabe dead. I was having the same kind of idea at the time, but Rilla put it together first. I jumped on immediately because it was a great read. Additionally, I don't like how Gabe defended the Bigred lynch the way he did. I don't like how he contradicted that defense later. I don't like how he said he's "trying to make a great case on somebody" then comes up with major weaksauce on Gator, but then added nothing more. I don't like how the main person who would go FPS and kill Luco is Gabe (and possibly Bikes). I HATE how he cinched Keybored when I clearly asked for nobody to cinch. His explanation for why he did it is even worse. Imagine what y'all woulda done if I had done that. Everybody would say I was trying to cut off discussion and my lynchwagon would have hit the moon. If Gabe is just a villager then gg. I'm always lynching him here

    Conclusion: GABE IS A WOLF!


    Gator - Not a whole lot to say except I think he's playing standard. I think Gray is a wolf and it would be kinda bad but also sick for Gator to bring Gray back into the spotlight. I don't think Gator noms Luco. Gator's process and explanations have been standard

    Conclusion: GATOR IS A VILLAGER!


    Gray - Said it all in just a couple posts above this

    Conclusion: GRAY IS A WOLF!


    Keith - I think Keith is being Keith. His reads are usually whack, but they're also usually rational. Being rational doesn't mean they're right, but he does have a village process behind them. And a regular Keith process

    Conclusion: KEITH IS A VILLAGER!


    Rong - Sorta the same. I see standard Rong and I see him doing things that I think are hard for wolves to do. I have little to say on Rong Keith and Gator partly because my main concern is the three main players I think are wolves. If one of them is a villager, then, well, I did my best

    Conclusion: RONG IS A VILLAGER!


    Scourrge: I'll take Baud's word for it. I don't know how in the balls he could say he confirms Scourrge as a villager. Like BID said, I would be very reluctant to do that so easily with a personal friend. But whatever, Baud has demonstrated that he'll believe things for reasons he doesn't tell us. Nothing about Scourrge strikes me as wolf. Some about him strikes me as villager. I'm okay with just taking Baud's word for it here

    Conclusion: SCOURRGE IS A VILLAGER!







    As usual, I'm probably wrong. But I don't think I am. I think this makes the most sense. But if the wolves aren't Gabe Bikes Gray, this wouldn't be the first time that wolves do a better job of making less sense of being wolves than some villagers did. If I am right, this would be a first. Finding the entire team before the first drops is a rarity. It's something I always hope to do, but never expect to do. Gotta pick somebody, these three are my best picks
  5. #980
    I thought deleting posts took it off the server entirely. Guess I was wrong

    Now it's just a double post. Lame
  6. #981
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    what? you used the word "clearly" right before i posted
    I meant show me how have you tried to guide the village to victory, but lets go with this.
    I never said my reads are definate, and I don't like you trying to frame it like I am.



    with 9 people left, your percentages should probably be in the 10-50% range. regardless of how much you like your theories, no one can have a likelihood of 90%.
    Why not? Like you say, you cant have a definite read.This is as close as I can get.

    How should I phrase it? "Im pretty sure that wuf is wolf, but he could also be town." No one does this, and you expecting me to is odd.

    Why didnt you call out BID when he said wuf was a 90% wolf?
    ^
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  7. #982
    Ok didn't realize that wuf hadn't finished posting reads when I commented on his vote.
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  8. #983
    It's wrong to post reads like that because it gives the wolves too much information to work with. But I always do it. Everybody does it. I tried to not do it for merging purposes because I found out it's super hard to do if you're not a villager.

    I kinda care more about a potential pwnage than getting the actual win. I've been in on the endgame village win several times. There's no joy in that. There is joy in catching all the wolves in one blow, however unlikely it is to work
  9. #984
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    I don't recall being in on a village end-game win, but I think I'd get a lot of fun out of it. Of course it's 'cooler' to nail all three with one prediction, but that should not be the ultimate goal of the village.

    wuf, I feel like you show many signs of being a villager, as well as signs that you are a wolf, but it's the narcissistic side of you that I don't want on my team
  10. #985
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    oh come on wuf ....you are getting sloppy now . this was Ongs first post of day2



    this is yet more evidence that Ong looked up Gator otherwise how could he be so confident that the kill was designed to frame gator .
    Read his second and third posts. I'm sorry, but if I looked up Gator, I wouldn't be saying these things. This looks far more like Ong simply doesnt know

    Granted, not everybody thinks like me, and I think the evidence is good to make the claim that Gator was Ong's third most likely lookup
  11. #986
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    oh come on wuf ....you are getting sloppy now . this was Ongs first post of day2



    this is yet more evidence that Ong looked up Gator otherwise how could he be so confident that the kill was designed to frame gator .
    From the wording of Ongs post I have no idea how you can take from it that he looked up Gator.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  12. #987
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    And Gator's "prety damning evidence" for Grey is weak as well. Considering a lt of people seemed to be putting him in their villager camp it would make sense to start throwing some suspicion his way.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  13. #988
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    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Gabe, Keith, gator. That's my picks.
    Add bikes as a sub for anyone else in that list. He really has done nothing. (I know, I'm a fine one to talk)
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  14. #989
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    It's wrong to post reads like that because it gives the wolves too much information to work with. But I always do it. Everybody does it. This is confusing. Seems to be a tactic of yours to point out how opposite of a wolf you are playing."Look what I'm doing a wolf wouldn't do this".

    I kinda care more about a potential pwnage than getting the actual win. I've been in on the endgame village win several times. There's no joy in that. There is joy in catching all the wolves in one blow, however unlikely it is to work Not very village like
    ^
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  15. #990
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I don't recall being in on a village end-game win, but I think I'd get a lot of fun out of it. Of course it's 'cooler' to nail all three with one prediction, but that should not be the ultimate goal of the village.
    Oh it is great. I was just referring to how I've done it before but if I'm in that situation again, I think I'm more likely to lose. It's really hard to get it right, even when there's just three players left
  16. #991
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    Wuf, reading your list above, Bikes never wants to lynch Gabe, he usually sheeps him.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  17. #992
    Wufs wolf reads are leaning so hard on rilla. "He was wrong about me, but he pretty muched decided my other wolf votes"
    If rilla was wrong on his read about wuf, why is wuf so sure rilla was right about the other two?
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  18. #993
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I'm saying you're a wolf for mainly two reasons

    (1) Early activity then suspicious drop off in midgame. We've caught many a wolfie doing that, especially less experienced ones. I'm similar to Rilla in that I think overarching style is highly indicative of role. It isn't even just that there was a drop off in your play, but the nuances of it. You were still here, you were still up to date enough to pop in a bold me. I think your behavior is very much like what newb wolves do. I mean, it's really hard for vet wolves to not do, so it's sensible that newbs do it more. Additionally, you had a handful of posts during that drop off period where you said things like "I think BID could be a wolf, imma go back and check" but then you never posted about it again. And now that you've been mentioned for this strange dropoff, you've come roaring back. Wolf City I don't think this makes him wolfy. He doesn't know everyone, probably doesn't feel that confident, as the pool dwindles your posts are more prominent and analysed to a much greater degree and it's harder to post something when you haven't really got a clue what's going on, which is how most noobs prob feel. Being up to date just implies reading the thread and having an interest, not that you'd have anything to add. Vets can't get away with that because they aren't new and therefore should have something to add.

    (2) I dont think you are confident of your read of me because according to your own explanation of your read of me, you shouldn't be confident in it because Baud didn't flip wolf. Every single thing you said about me being a wolf depended on Baud being a wolf. I think a villager looks at that and says "hmm, maybe I'm wrong. I don't wanna be wrong." Then reevaluates. Wolves, however, have it hard and tend to have to stick to reads that aren't so good. Meh, as a noob, once you get hold of something it's very hard to let go. You get used to being wrong all the time in this game but at first that's not so easy
    I mean overall I get the points you're making but I think that his overall villagery tone is far more role indicative that what yo've posted above.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  19. #994
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Wuf, reading your list above, Bikes never wants to lynch Gabe, he usually sheeps him.
    I remember Bikes doing both. You are right about the sheeping though. Another time I remember Bikes saying how the right way to play is to lynch the good/tough-to-read players early, then by the endgame, you can make sense of things. He said the latter part of that this game, but hasn't really even followed up. It could be that he's just not that interested. I hope not.
  20. #995
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    Lynch Gabe

    He's on my list of most likely wolves {Gabe, Keith, Bikes, Gator) and he is the most likely lynch that isn't Wuf, whom I am confident is not a wolf.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  21. #996
    Quote Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx View Post
    Wufs wolf reads are leaning so hard on rilla. "He was wrong about me, but he pretty muched decided my other wolf votes"
    If rilla was wrong on his read about wuf, why is wuf so sure rilla was right about the other two?
    I respect Rilla's game, I respect opinions of dead villagers (especially if they were nommed), and I agree with what he said not so much because he said it but because I agree with the rationale

    Villagers are wrong about most stuff. If we gathered the stats on how often each of the regs here were right in their reads, I bet it would get no higher than 20% of the time for anybody. I would probably have worse performance than average because I have lots of reads, and players like jackvance (who isn't in this game sadly), who tends to only opine on thoughtful positions, would probably have above average performance. I have no problem with a world where Rilla was wrong about me yet right about Gabe
  22. #997
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Gabe, Keith, gator. That's my picks.

    I'll be amazed if wuf turns out to be a wolf.
    how about some reasoning behind those choices or was it just a case of throwing a dart at a dartboard blindfolded.Is all the evidence that i've been posting showing that gator was likely to be his n1 lookup inconvenient for the rest of the wolves now that we know that keybored wasn't his n1 lookup.

    theres lots of evidence reading through the thread suggesting that wuf is a wolf.So how can you be amazed if he turns out to be a wolf.This is implying that you know that he's not a wolf otherwise how could you be amazed. If wuf isn't a wolf how can you know that , only the wolves can know that now. And if wufs a villager he's done some stupidly dodgy stuff. A villager shouldn't be scrambling to have a lookup interpreted on himself with dodgy reasoning as it just looks wolfy.

    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    And Gator's "prety damning evidence" for Grey is weak as well. Considering a lt of people seemed to be putting him in their villager camp it would make sense to start throwing some suspicion his way.
    don't you find it ironic that you call gators evidence weak when you have presented zero evidence whatsoever that gabe,me and gator are wolves.
  23. #998
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    Your continued belief that gator was looked up combined with your harassment of wuf with pretty weak arguments is enough to make you extremely suspect. You are trying to make something so. Villagers don't need to do that.

    're wuf it's the post that Gabe quoted above. He literally never posts that as a wolf.
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  24. #999
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    Re gator, his weak arguments combined with you trying to get him to be considered a look up. Plus a couple other bits that he's posted. He's being very considered in his posts. Something about him is extremely wolfy.

    Bikes: been summed up already.

    Also I think everyone else has demonstrated their villager status to a greater or lesser extent.
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  25. #1000
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    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Also I think everyone else has demonstrated their villager status to a greater or lesser extent.
    Ummmm duh. Is there another possibility?

    I get a weird feeling about rong today with his recent outburst of opinions.

    I am under the impression that wuf has been under the microscope the most today, yet rong is going a completely different route.
  26. #1001
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    Under the microscope doesn't mean he's a wolf. I had a whole hissy fit about him posting in the exact way he posted above when I was a wolf. I don't believe he'd do it as a wolf and he can't stop himself from doing it as a villager.
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  27. #1002
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    So you're going to say wuf is in your village camp?
  28. #1003
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    Going? I think I've been pretty clear about that.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  29. #1004
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Under the microscope doesn't mean he's a wolf. I had a whole hissy fit about him posting in the exact way he posted above when I was a wolf. I don't believe he'd do it as a wolf and he can't stop himself from doing it as a villager.
    I thought your hissy fit was because I was saying the stuff about the godfather. I was wrong and shouldn't have said that stuff, but I don't remember you getting in a fit over anything else. What was it?
  30. #1005
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    I also think Gabe is more likely to quite it and call it lousy as a wolf than as a villager, which is more evidence of his wolfiness.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  31. #1006
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    I'm not getting into that. You haven't done anything wrong not did you last time. It's just something that annoyed me once, and while it doesn't now, I can still spot it's occurrence.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  32. #1007
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    * Gabe is more likely to quote it
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  33. #1008
    Yeah I'm not worried that Gabe might flip vil. I am worried that Bikes could be just this corny as a villager and that all the other things that point to him being a wolf are just coincidences. And I'm worried that Gray could be acting on the up n up even though I would use his play as an example of one of the best ways to find wolves
  34. #1009
    Sounds like you think I may have suggested a wolf win would be tainted. I don't think that. I think there is a great possibility of the wolves winning this
  35. #1010
    rong's Avatar
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    Not at all.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  36. #1011
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    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    I also think Gabe is more likely to quite it and call it lousy as a wolf than as a villager, which is more evidence of his wolfiness.
    that would only be evidence if your read was right, but its not

    that post of wufs was cringe worthy. "woe is me, i should just die, look at me" bs. it makes me want to lynch wuf on day 1 next game
  37. #1012
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Your continued belief that gator was looked up combined with your harassment of wuf with pretty weak arguments is enough to make you extremely suspect. You are trying to make something so. Villagers don't need to do that.

    're wuf it's the post that Gabe quoted above. He literally never posts that as a wolf.
    lmao... so me showing that gator was a far more likely lookup knowing that keybored wasn't the lookup makes me and gator wolves , whilst wuf continually claiming that he or BID was looked up make them both villagers ....thats one of the weakest arguments i've ever seen and is you trying to "make it so."

    My harasssment of wuf is me actually going through the thread and finding evidence that people aren't acting as they claim. The only evidence you've been through the thread is that you've read the last two pages. You are doing the minimum you can get away with and saying as little as possible so that nothing you say can be analysed. that is bone idle hiding in the shadows wolf 101 play.
    Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Only one living player tried to get himself seered then when that didn't seem to work tried to get himself vigged. All in a fashion that means it's very likely it would happen and was likely to result in getting lynched instead of either (keep in mind I misread the Day 1 tally and thought I was on the final lynch). It wasn't no side comment of "hey da seer shud look me up", but a dogged pursuit of a specific plan. If I'm a wolf and I dodged the seer and the vig and those lynches, I deserve to win more than any wolves ever have. But nobody's that sick, so it didn't happen. Frankly I didn't even want to do make a plan where the seer looked me up or the vig shoots me because I simply won't do that as a wolf (because it usually follows through and is suicide), but Baudib continually claiming he had me locked down as wolf yet providing no explanation irritated me too much and I thought there was no way he would think that if he was a villager

    That said, I don't care if you lynch me. I kinda want you to lynch me. I'm tired and worn out of being vanilla. I have the opposite problem of Gabe and Gator, I never die. I live to every endgame. Wolves don't like nomming me because I'm lynchbait and there may still be the perception that I'm a liability to the village. I remember the only time I was nommed early was because wolfgator said "he's usually wrong but tends to figure it out in the end". Other than that, wolves have always wanted to keep me alive. Maybe it's smart, I don't know. I thought that at least if I got seered or vigged I would have an easy, relaxing road of it where I was either confirmed vil or dead


    Regardless, if you're not buying it, kill me. I'll put up my preferred kills soon for after I'm dead. I think I went pretty over the top in this game to prove I'm not a wolf, but whatever
    i'm guessing that is the post that you are confident that wuf is a villager for.If you'd read the thread you'd remember that baudib/ong were speculating at that time whether wufs lynch one seer the other was an attempt by wuf to out the seer. as for wuf getting vigged I don't remember a post where he tried to get himself shot.

    Your posts look like you are positioning yourself so that you can benefit if wuf comes back a villager . You can only benefit that way if you know that wuf is a villager and only the wolves can know that. You are appearing to be too confident that wuf is a villager
  38. #1013
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I thought deleting posts took it off the server entirely. Guess I was wrong

    Now it's just a double post. Lame
    This is in reference to Posts #970, 971, 972, 979 & 980.

    As wufwugy stated in Post #971, he accidentally deleted content and then immediately re-submitted it, sending me a Private Message with the word-for-word text. This action typically would not require my confirmation (I think it is appropriate to take a veteran player like wufwugy's word for it), but I am posting it for newer players as well as for future reference.

    There is also a post (#972) by FlopTurnRiver Moderator a500lbgorrila in which he made the heads-up (and highly appreciated) call to fix some display issues caused by wuf's malfunctioning keyboard.

    The entire post by wufwugy can be found at #979.
  39. #1014
    Day #4 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

    * No Time Limit --- Majority of 5 Votes Required to Lynch

    gabe - 2
    wufugy - 2

    _____

    BankItDrew --- (wufwugy #880/#882)
    bikes
    gabe
    GatorJH
    GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #886
    Keith --- wufwugy #908
    rong --- gabe #995
    scourrge
    wufwugy --- gabe #877
  40. #1015
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    Quote Originally Posted by dhubermex View Post
    This is in reference to Posts #970, 971, 972, 979 & 980.

    As wufwugy stated in Post #971, he accidentally deleted content and then immediately re-submitted it, sending me a Private Message with the word-for-word text. This action typically would not require my confirmation (I think it is appropriate to take a veteran player like wufwugy's word for it), but I am posting it for newer players as well as for future reference.

    There is also a post (#972) by FlopTurnRiver Moderator a500lbgorrila in which he made the heads-up (and highly appreciated) call to fix some display issues caused by wuf's malfunctioning keyboard.

    The entire post by wufwugy can be found at #979.
    Oh, I just cleaned up a small mess is Aisle #970. Can't let the customers see things in such an unsightly manner. Bad for business, I reckon.
  41. #1016
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    that would only be evidence if your read was right, but its not

    that post of wufs was cringe worthy. "woe is me, i should just die, look at me" bs. it makes me want to lynch wuf on day 1 next game
    Part of me thinks you could be serious. As per this game, I'm more concerned that you're focused on things like that than, well, finding the wolves

    If you are serious, I wasn't trying to suggest woe is me. This sort of thing is part of the game. I was trying to make the best points for why I'm a villager but if people don't believe me, I'm personally okay with that because I think I have the baddies on lockdown and it might even be easier to see that after I die
  42. #1017
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Read his second and third posts. I'm sorry, but if I looked up Gator, I wouldn't be saying these things. This looks far more like Ong simply doesnt know

    Granted, not everybody thinks like me, and I think the evidence is good to make the claim that Gator was Ong's third most likely lookup
    ok so here they are

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Because when I saw the luco kill I thought that looks like a very gatoresque kill, then I thought maybe that's what the wolves want us to think. I was drunk when I posted last night and I wasn't being entirely serious. The luco does kill look like gator's work though, kinda, but that seems too level 0. I'd also expect gator to be special hunting on n1, not picking off those who have successfully read him in the past. Why would anyone think luco was special?

    luco nom was real strange.

    Anyway I'm happy with a baudib lynch.

    lynch baudib
    bolded ...why would Ong think that it was whatthe wolves wanted him to think unless he knew that gator was innocent .

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If you want me to elaborate more why I think luco kill is gatoresque, it's because I'm reasonably sure from my time wolfing that gator is more than happy to pick off luco due to luco's ability to read gator. The only thing I'll add though is that gator will not insist on killing anyway, he's democratic, and also his n1 wolf priority is to special hunt. So he'll only kill luco n1 if the wolves are happy there's a decent chance of binking the seer. I don't think that applies here, so I think the wolves are unlikely to be particularly adept special hunters.

    The night kill could very much hint at an inexperienced wolf team.
    why would it be an inexperienced wolf team if gator was a wolf. That post isn't saying that Ong thought Gator was a wolf either.
  43. #1018
    Come to think of it, I am worried that Gabe might be a villager. Why? Because I'm not worried that Gabe might be a villager. Things rarely make sense in WW. They always look like they're making sense until after the game is over and the results are some kinda crazy
  44. #1019
    ^^posted that in the wrong thread. deleted it and posted here
  45. #1020
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Come to think of it, I am worried that Gabe might be a villager. Why? Because I'm not worried that Gabe might be a villager. Things rarely make sense in WW. They always look like they're making sense until after the game is over and the results are some kinda crazy
    What.
    Metal.....Gear!?
  46. #1021
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Part of me thinks you could be serious. As per this game, I'm more concerned that you're focused on things like that than, well, finding the wolves

    If you are serious, I wasn't trying to suggest woe is me. This sort of thing is part of the game. I was trying to make the best points for why I'm a villager but if people don't believe me, I'm personally okay with that because I think I have the baddies on lockdown and it might even be easier to see that after I die
    What. But you said gabe...I dont even know what you are saying anymore.
    Metal.....Gear!?
  47. #1022
    Quote Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx View Post
    What.
    In werewolf, when you think you're right about something, you tend to find you were wrong

    There is a decent argument to be made that the "correct" wolf hunting strategy is to look for the players who look the most villagery and are making the least amount of mistakes and have the least inconsistencies. I don't believe that, but I think regular villagers end up playing so "wolfy" so often that there may be merit to that idea.
  48. #1023
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Yeah I'm not worried that Gabe might flip vil. I am worried that Bikes could be just this corny as a villager and that all the other things that point to him being a wolf are just coincidences. And I'm worried that Gray could be acting on the up n up even though I would use his play as an example of one of the best ways to find wolves
    You are all over the place. Could you elaborate on my play and using it to find wolves? Ive voted you pretty much all game, so are you saying I found a wolf?
    Metal.....Gear!?
  49. #1024
    Quote Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx View Post
    You are all over the place. Could you elaborate on my play and using it to find wolves? Ive voted you pretty much all game, so are you saying I found a wolf?
    I didn't word that well. I intended it to mean that your play is an example of textbook wolfing (if there is such a thing).

    It's basically: "hey you wanna know how to find wolves? Go check out what Gray's doing, cuz I think he wolfing hard"
  50. #1025
    I have an itching feeling that I'm wrong about Bikes and BID.

    Bikes is too wolfy. He really is. An issue is that he's always like this even as a villager. His epic wolfiness gets the village in trouble since he is lynched because of it. It is possible that when he's a wolf he actually plays BETTER than this hyperhowling dreg he gives us now

    About BID, I straight up think Ong looked me up. Sure, a good percentage of the time he looked somebody else up, but I do believe he looked me up. I think Ong thinks he reads BID well enough that he wouldn't bother looking him up, and Ong's massive change in behavior regarding me from Day 1 to 2 is just too much. I've wanted to be able to make excuses for being wrong (like if BID is a wolf but I called him villager, I could just say "was just following Ong"). But that's cowardice. Gotta win hard or lose hard, no other option is acceptable

    So yeah, I got this itching feeling that it's BID, not Bikes. FYI one of the reasons I get so hard on thinking certain players are wolves is because if I'm wrong, I feel like the wolves could have already won. My ww ego is so engorged that all they'd have to do is say "yes wufwugy, right wufwugy, we agree with you wufwugy, you're the smartest bestest ww player in the whole wide world wufwugy", and I'll be too blinded to the truth and will lob those atomic bombs mining for gold
  51. #1026
    I have started reviewing page 5 and noticed these posts by ong:

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    gator's comment is strange though. I mean is he giving bigred a villager lean because bigred is drifitng by doing nothing on d1? That is far too sloppy for gator.
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I agree with gator regarding baudib, I'm just pretty sure he's a wolf. But fine I can brescind.

    But gator says yeah let's kill an inactive (but not bigred), which makes very little sense to me. Gator is all over bigred in early game pretty often. Bigred was active last game? That's news to me. And if he binks wolf, well I expect him to do as little as possible in early game because that's the standard he's set himself. It's not hard for him to mimic his village game, which makes him extremely dangerous. Gator knows all this. I'm surprised to see gator come to bigred's defence regarding a d1 lynch. Why is lolz a better lynch when lolz might get replaced?

    lynch bigred

    I at least want him to get in here and defend himself before I back off him.
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    This is interesting. baudib and gator are topping my list at the moment.
    I am not saying that Ong looked me up, but these do support that notion.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  52. #1027
    Just finished reviewing pages 5 and 6 with the following notes:

    BID - checked into the game, but then nothing so no read available

    Bikes - minimal posting, but still think he is a wolf based on what he did post

    Gabe - seemed to go more with the flow than anything. Still wolfish to me

    Gray - spent most of his time going after baudib or wuf. Still leaning heavily toward villager

    Keith - targeted Gator most of the time. Still leaning heavily toward villager

    Rong - went with other's reads and softened his stance on baudib so leaning wolf,

    wuf - focused on BID and baudib. Nothing major here so neutral on reads over this period.

    scourgge - not in game yet
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  53. #1028
    Some vets might call this normal, but here are my thoughts:

    Rong has made 14 posts on this page alone, after averaging something like 1 or 2 per page before this one. Yeah, some people have died so fewer people are posting, but that's still an insane change in frequency. He was starting to get some heat, and now he's suddenly got reads to share. Imo most of those reads aren't particularly strong. I'm not going to claim 90% wolf probability or anything, but I really want to go for rong.

    My next vote is still grayfox. As bizarre as wuf's posts have been, the inconsistencies and other things he's posted don't have me crying wolf. They seem like the actions of a villager who doesn't really give a damn. Which seems reasonable given what I've seen of wuf so far. Grayfox could just be a noob villager making mistakes, but he's more likely a noob wolf making mistakes that accurately portray his role. Most of his posts have not too much content, and beat around the bush. It's hard for wolves to post content. They either have to lie (and lying is harder than telling the truth), or tell the truth (which usually means omitting information). So the less they post, the easier it is to deal with that reality.

    I feel like most of grayfox's posts don't make much sense. In post 977 he says he REALLY thinks 2 wolves are arguing to "help the end-game." I'm not saying this would never happen, but I don't really see any strong evidence for this. BID's instant agreement with this unfounded statement has me scratching my head a bit. I don't think it condemns BID or anything, I just don't see why he would agree without there being more of an explanation there.

    Lastly for this post, I don't necessarily agree with wuf's reliance on rilla. I agree it's possible rilla got one thing wrong and got others right. But it's equally as likely (if not more so) that he got one wolf-read right and the others wrong. Basically, just because rilla got eaten doesn't mean he was right. I can't speak to the likelihood of rilla's kill being used to frame gabe or being gabe himself. But I'm wary of ignoring the others in rilla's reads. And also wary of being blinded by those reads. There are others here, and it's more likely than not that rilla got at least 1 or 2 wrong.
  54. #1029
    If wolves argue, it would be harder to identify another if one of the three gets lynched. Its day 4, 1/3 chance one gets nailed today. It seems like to would be a good time to start creating some confusion from the wolves end. I don't see the idea as far fetched.
    Metal.....Gear!?
  55. #1030
    scourrge could you point out my mistakes besides lynching baud?
    Metal.....Gear!?
  56. #1031
    What am I beating around the bush about?
    Metal.....Gear!?
  57. #1032
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Alright, shows over, LEROYYYYYYY JENKINNNNNNNNSS

    lynch gabe

    FWIW I'm suspicious of wuf, but I always am. I just don't want to lose that that guy.

    I don't see GF nor scourrge being a wolf too. They both just seem to be noob villagers to me.

    If anyone else, bikes is on my list after wuf. I know it's day 4 but he's either a wolf or a shitty villager.
  58. #1033
    I think Bikes is a better option today than Gabe.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  59. #1034
    @gray: iirc there were 2 different posting slip ups. but I meant somewhat more generally. making lots of posts in close succession suggests that you don't think stuff out too much before posting. whether you're eager to post or just not worried about what you look like is unclear to me. being eager to post points to wolf while being unworried about your image would strike me as more villager.

    but getting hung up on people arguing seems weird to me. at least two different times you mention that two people arguing back and forth is likely indicative of two wolves trying to create a misleading image. yet werewolves is a game of discussion and disagreement, so I don't see how arguments and contention on their own can point strongly toward wolfy-ness.

    Your day 3 contributions were absurd. You opened with this one-liner:

    Quote Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx View Post
    Lynch wuf
    You gave no explanation - and despite you being on wuf before, just saying it with nothing else doesn't seem very villager-ish. Villagers want to explain their views and get others to see their point of view, while wolves want to get people lynched without drawing too much attention. You topped it off with your second and last post of day 3:

    Quote Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx View Post
    I am getting a wolfy vibe from BID, going back to look at his posts now.
    You did not follow up.

    That's the worst of it imo but the general vibe I get from you is that you're a wolf making some mistakes, or a villager playing very, VERY strangely.
  60. #1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    I think Bikes is a better option today than Gabe.
    I think they're both wolves. I don't see why one is better than the other atm though.
  61. #1036
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I think they're both wolves. I don't see why one is better than the other atm though.
    I think he is because through 7 pages I think the probability he is a wolf is greater than Gabe. Plus, Gabe posts more content which can help the village on the off chance his is not a wolf.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  62. #1037
    lynch bikes
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  63. #1038
    come on Drew, join me.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  64. #1039
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    outta work catching up

    ?wut
  65. #1040
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    re: gator, okay.

    rescind

    but if bikes is a villager, gator is at the top of my new V.27.3 list

    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    catching up
    do not believe
  66. #1041
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    lynch bikes
  67. #1042
    Gator, can you elaborate a bit more on your bikes read? He has been hovering in my top 2-3 but I wouldn't have put him over rong. Thoughts?
  68. #1043
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    Think lynching gabe is a poor choice at the moment. I get this feeling that the wuf and ring banter a few pages ago was just noise attempting to distance each other from themselves should one of them die

    I get this general feeling from all wufs posts that this is all just noise and misdirection. Like everything he posts he just contradicts a post or two later. Like when he says I am def wolf but then says I always play like this hyperwolfvillage hybrid so I'm town probably. Fucking phone is not letting me link examples. Hitting post now and still typing cause I don't want phone to lose anything

    ?wut
  69. #1044
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    I also have this feeling scourrege and grayfoxx and village this large amount of the time. I base this off of the fact there is an absurd amount of high caliber players and they probably would coach them better. I feel this way stronger about grayfoxx than scouregge because the fox % post was so redid facepalm I have to believe no one would let him post that.

    ?wut
  70. #1045
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    That post from gator where he tells bid to hop aboard the bikes train is just so off the wall wth. I mean its possible that I could be getting leveled here but I think gator wolf would never say such a wtf thing.


    I do agree that I am a better lynch than Gabe cause if Gabe is a village he'll hyper carry the town. I am also town but gotta give the village the best chance to win. If he's a wolf he's already carried team wolf to victory in the majority of the time IMO.

    Bid continues to throw shit at the wall. Idk is bid and he should probably be lynched at some point I just can't figure out when at the moment

    ?wut
  71. #1046
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    I'm getting derailed, I can feel it in my bones.
  72. #1047
    Day #4 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

    * No Time Limit --- Majority of 5 Votes Required to Lynch

    bikes - 2
    gabe - 2
    wufugy - 2

    _____

    BankItDrew --- (wufwugy #880/#882) (gabe #1,032) bikes #1,041
    bikes
    gabe
    GatorJH - bikes #1,037
    GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #886
    Keith --- wufwugy #908
    rong --- gabe #995
    scourrge
    wufwugy --- gabe #877
  73. #1048
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    If bikes is a villager, gator is a wolf and so is gabe. Wuf increases on the wolf scale too because gator could have simply voted wuf instead of atarting a new wagon. If bikes is vanilla, the wolves are gator, gabe, and wuf.

    If bikes flips wolf, gator is a locked villager.
  74. #1049
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Can someone upload a mic drop gif for me? I can't from my phone.
  75. #1050
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    I think Bikes is a better option today than Gabe.
    I agree, bikes hasn't posted anything memorable except hero worshipping Gabe. He's hiding just like rong has for most of the game. as soon as they pick up any heat they pop out of the woodwork. Rong's ultra confidence in wuf being a villager has me worried. he is too certain. Based on wuf wouldn't post one particular post if he was a wolf. when has wuf been a wolf that rong can know what he'd do as a wolf? He's been almost wolf and own subfaction that i can remember but don't remember him being a full blown wolf before.It feels like he is either defending a villager to get town cred or keeping his co wolf alive so that gabe or gator get shot tonight and they coast to a win. Yet again wuf is claiming he was looked up and no comment from rong about it , i pull lots of evidence from what Ong said about gator to support the line that Gator was looked up and confirming rilla's opinion that "night action" in ongs post meant that gator was looked up and rong blindly insists that me and gator are wolves. Confirmed villagers in a small pool are a massive problem for the wolves and wuf is trying to downplay the probability that gator was the lookup and rong is straight up contradicting all of the evidence

    bikes and rong are the wolves and probably wuf , but since there's a chance that rong could be going for villager cred by defending a villager wuf he's best left til tomorrow. We need a wolf and bikes seems to be most peoples choice and if he's left alive we get to a smaller group with absolutely zero info on him due to his non participation.

    rescind wuf lynch bikes

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