*** Witch Hunt: Village of Souls gameplay thread ***

[jyms]

We can't go all game without someone posting it

[jyms]

at 5:30 pm my time pascal bolded JKDS to put him at 4

at 5:40

pascal - jkds
jv - jkds
jkds - jyms
jyms - jkds
gabe - jkds


jkds = 4
jyms = 1

no votes = hoopy, rong, daven, luco

I think that's accurate

and Jack rescinded 10 mins later

I am kind of wondering several things right now. Rong and hoopy are posting but don't seem to have their hunting hats on as they usually do. I'm also trying to wrap my head around why JKDS wasn't lynched. If he's a witch then the witches were either on the wagon or not and if they were on it's very telling for JV to pull out. If they weren't then we have 4 guys to choose from.

If he's not a witch (which is quite possible because the whole Luco argument points to him) then JV is clear for stepping off and some of the wolves are on the bandwagon or not present. I think we need to work from these scenarios with our other reads and try to put together a strat going forward, even if it means putting up a possible villager to clarify these positions. Who would give us our best ideas going forward?

[JKDS]

unvote I need to rethink things

[jyms]

I think the biggest oddity here is that there is no other wagon. Why are the witches not finishing off this lynch or deflecting? Short game means no need to out themselves by taking a side, With 6 villagers there is enough to lynch without them, throw in one witch and that is more than good enough.

I'm leaning more to them staying neutral which points to possibly 2 of the 4 non voters

[jyms]

I'm thinking Rong and Hoopy are witches now. After reading all of their posts neither seems to be doing any real searching. They are both posting a lot of "devils advocate" type of posts. When JKDS was at 3 Rong was asking about when does daven come on line. Hoopy has claimed that he feels that Rong is not a witch and neither has bolded or even been accusatory in any way. Both are good hunters and neither is doing anything to put pressure on anybody to force posting or panic in a very short game. It would jive with my no second wagon against JKDS too. I still think it's possible for Luco to be #3 as well so I think we need some heat on these two. Luco who would you pic our of these two?

[jyms]

I think they were hoping JKDS would finger someone after his tirade yesterday and end our game for them. If they just bandwagon a lynch then it's only one kill and really sets up the village to hit a witch on the next lynch

[Luco]

I bolded you because you leaned on me and i'm 100% I'm a villager.

Rong would be my first choice for instigating this whole 'luco is too good, loool COACHED' bullshit but Hoopy is def not off my radar, as you say he's been too quiet and passive.

[Luco]

I dunno, maybe rong feels like tit-for-tat and he's clouding my judgement because he was running ok until then.

[JKDS]

Hrmmmmmm very interesting.

[jackvance]

I'm thinking Rong and Hoopy are witches now. After reading all of their posts neither seems to be doing any real searching.

I don't see how you can say this about rong. His case against Luco was just about the most thought-out thing in this thread, and if you look back he didn't jump in straight away with accusations, he first asked the necessary questions to Luco where he might have gotten his lingo etc from. If rong is a witch kudos to him he has pulled the wool over my eyes pretty good. To me he seems to be hunting perfectly normal like when he is a villager.

I'm down with a Hoopy lynch though, it's a bit like the reasoning I used last game to find Gizmo and Daven, if it's hard to find wolves, start looking at those people that are blending in but laying low instead of the heavy talkers, they'll often be the wolves.

Similar for Daven, seems like he's genuinly busy but that doesn't preclude he can be a witch. He's just a big questionmark.

Gabe is the surest villager in this game for me, I'd bet everything I own and more he is never a witch here, others can still be. And I'm slightly favoring a JKDS lynch again, but I'm having a hard time really deciding on anyone. (also I just learned I'll have internet on my vacation spot, my friend had his parents install it on their beach house, so I'm no rush to see things through)

[jackvance]

I bolded you because you leaned on me and i'm 100% I'm a villager.

That's the biggest rookie mistake in the book though. Who do you think is more likely to get it wrong, villagers who know nothing and are trying to figure things out, or wolves who already have all the information about everyone's roles? For this reason wolves (and specials, but we don't have that now) tend to not be too accusatory to not step on too many toes. So be careful with the revenge reasoning, that is what loses games.

[Luco]

That's the biggest rookie mistake in the book though. Who do you think is more likely to get it wrong, villagers who know nothing and are trying to figure things out, or wolves who already have all the information about everyone's roles? For this reason wolves (and specials, but we don't have that now) tend to not be too accusatory to not step on too many toes. So be careful with the revenge reasoning, that is what loses games.

It occured to me in some fashion that if jyms was a witch then he's lining himself up to be exposed as soon as his village target gets lynched. But, you know, he hurt my feelings...

[Luco]

Goddammit

Rescind for a sec, I need to work through logically

[Pascal]

time for your daily coaching!

[Luco]

Yep, what time are you free?

[rong]

Huh? I don't get your argument against me jyms. I wolf hunted better than anyone else imo. I put a case together against luco that also tied in JKDS. I also specifically didn't bold JKDS in spite of being ok with lynching him because we were about 12 hrs into a 80 hr day (those numbers are wild guesses but the point stands) and also told others to slow down so we can get more info and then encouraged those who aren't involved to get involved which included specifically calling out the at that time missing daven. I can't really do much more than that. I'm at work today so can keep up with the thread but much more than that is difficult before 8pm bst. So its all you're gonna get for now.

And luco's sole reason for suggesting me is because I went for him pretty hard. He even states this clearly.

[Luco]

I don't see how you can say this about rong. His case against Luco was just about the most thought-out thing in this thread, and if you look back he didn't jump in straight away with accusations, he first asked the necessary questions to Luco where he might have gotten his lingo etc from. If rong is a witch kudos to him he has pulled the wool over my eyes pretty good. To me he seems to be hunting perfectly normal like when he is a villager.

And it's dead wrong, so make of that what you will.

[jyms]

Fair enough. I forgot about the pre questioning ahead of the accusation. I was jsut thinking that if possible that Luco is a villager it was a good spot for a wolf to point it out. But I have to admit that the pre questions about Luco's experience does seem pretty villagery for a witch to pull off.

[Luco]

Well when all this is over I'm gonna make sure rong regrets ever pointing it out. You could even say I'll go to town on him.

JV, what's your reasoning for gabe as a villager?

[jyms]

FWIW I think gabe is perfectly capable of arguing over endgame results with the mod as a witch or a villager so I hope there is more myself.

[jackvance]

Well when all this is over I'm gonna make sure rong regrets ever pointing it out. You could even say I'll go to town on him.

JV, what's your reasoning for gabe as a villager?

FWIW I think gabe is perfectly capable of arguing over endgame results with the mod as a witch or a villager so I hope there is more myself.

Jyms you're only mentionning the last few things he posted, you have to look at the bigger picture, the whole chain of everything he's posted screams villager to me.

[rong]

I don't see gave showing up wolf very often. Same could be said for jv.

Pascal, daven & hoopy are all pretty nondescript. JKDS could turn up anything and it wouldn't surprise me.

Luco I have my suspicions about which I've already stated.

That leaves jyms who could easily be wolf but am I looking at you now through different eyes as you just accused me? I dunno.

But then we have the JKDS nearly lynch. There is info to be had there which I need to think about.

[jyms]

Jyms you're only mentionning the last few things he posted, you have to look at the bigger picture, the whole chain of everything he's posted screams villager to me.

ya fair enough. I haven't actually focused at all on gabe as of yet. I don't expect him to make a large mistake and I think we have other information that could help get someone else first. as Rong has just said about the JKDS wagon, there is something here, we just need to find it.

[Luco]

By the way, who hasn't pointed the finger at me yet?

[rong]

More thoughts on fingering. It's am awful idea tonight.

Assuming we lynch a villager tonight (if not the whole fingering point is moot) and the wolves kill a villager, we're 4-3 tomo. Normally this means mis-lynch and its over, however this game the villager about to be lynched always fingers at that point. So we have 3 shots at hitting a wolf. A 3/9 chance today, 3/7 chance tomo and then if we've fucked all of those a random villager gets a 3/6 shot with a finger bang.

Once we get a wolf this will all start to piece together. I suddenly don't feel we're in that bad shape.

But a finger bang tonight would be trading 2 shots that each have better odds and more information for 1 shot tonight with less info and considerably worse odds. It's both stupid and selfish.

[Luco]

Also, don't be too quick to dismiss rong just because of how he framed his red herring. If I get lynched and you all see I'm town, at least two of my accusers will be witch for sure.

[rong]

More thoughts on fingering. It's am awful idea tonight.

Assuming we lynch a villager tonight (if not the whole fingering point is moot) and the wolves kill a villager, we're 4-3 tomo. Normally this means mis-lynch and its over, however this game the villager about to be lynched always fingers at that point. So we have 3 shots at hitting a wolf. A 3/9 chance today, 3/7 chance tomo and then if we've fucked all of those a random villager gets a 3/6 shot with a finger bang.

Once we get a wolf this will all start to piece together. I suddenly don't feel we're in that bad shape.

But a finger bang tonight would be trading 2 shots that each have better odds and more information for 1 shot tonight with less info and considerably worse odds. It's both stupid and selfish.

Quoting myself because that that post was at the bottom of a page and I want it to be noticed.

[rong]

Luco, I'm not that confident I'm correct, but the evidence is there and I saw it so I shared it. Even if you are a villager it doesn't mean I have to be a wolf. Any way you look at it you come access as not what you claim to be. Ie inexperienced noob with nobody to discuss strategy with outside if this thread using the terminology of an experienced player and posting strategy like one. It's doesn't take a huge mental leap to find that odd and therefore you suspect.

[Luco]

Rong, if you're a witch then wp. If you're not then I wouldn't mind an apology post game

[jackvance]

Rong, if you're a witch then wp. If you're not then I wouldn't mind an apology post game

?.. the only way to play this game is to accuse people and have them get involved and respond.

[Luco]

?.. the only way to play this game is to accuse people and have them get involved and respond.

But it has proven to be a massive distraction for the village.

[jackvance]

Anyway, on the whole JKDS bandwagon thing, I didn't like the JKDS lynch for a while but I didn't rescind yet because I wasn't that worried it would get closed out fast (not like 2 witches would insta-hammer it after so long, too obvious imo). Then Pascal put in the 4th vote.. so pretty much the whole wagon was people on my villager list, which is why I haven't really commented on that yet. I hope it'll get more clear once we get a witch and get the ball rolling like Rong said. At this point I think we should just lynch Daven or Hoopy, it's the highest chance of a witch I would say.

[gabe]

i know this is getting worn out but if 3-3 is a witch win, does that mean 2-2 and 1-1 are? we can arrive at both of them without going through 3-3. it does matter now that we are starting to pull all these fractions out...

today we pick our best witch and see what happens. then tomorrow we vote on a person that is going to do a fingering. if the person tries to get out of it in anyway, we lynch them. a good villager must accept their fingering role tomorrow. to choose who to finger, i think it should be completely random.

[gabe]

?.. the only way to play this game is to accuse people and have them get involved and respond.

But it has proven to be a massive distraction for the village.

?.. the only way to play this game is to accuse people and have them get involved and respond.

see what i did there

[jyms]

agree with Hoopy for sure. I still think there may have not been any witches on that wagon because of JKDS threatening a finger. They wanted two villagers gone and not one, and didn't want him to finger one of them if they were on the wagon

[Luco]

Some other thoughts:

Once we find one witch, it gets a lot easier, right?

I'm really getting emotionally involved in this game. Is it easier to detach yourself a little with experience?

[gabe]

dont try to detach, its not like the games last a long time. if we find a witch this time, i think we have about a 35% chance of winning, and if we miss we have about 18% chance (assuming we use optimal fingering strategy and we assume all players' skills average out)

[jyms]

now can you teach me poker after this??

[jackvance]

Some other thoughts:

Once we find one witch, it gets a lot easier, right?

I'm really getting emotionally involved in this game. Is it easier to detach yourself a little with experience?

Ya this is normal. I once had it with Keith. He got convinced I was a wolf and was going for me, and I got madly convinced he was one too and I kept hammering him mercilessly. Then at one point he made a huge post where he pretty much flipped out. This made part of me think he couldn't be a wolf but this was completely drowned in my commitment he had to be a wolf. So we lynch Keith and he flips villager. Big shock for me, I still remember it. But it helped to make me think in a more detached way afterwards.

[jackvance]

Alright.

lynch hoopy

[Luco]

Every post is information. It's like the three witches are slowly hanging themselves, it's great

[jackvance]

Every post is information. It's like the three witches are slowly hanging themselves, it's great

Interesting, do explain.

[gabe]

im not convinced hoopy is better than jkds. hoopy has been laying low but he hasnt posted anything sketchy. meanwhile jkds....

I just finished dinner, and have tons of hw to do. Iirc we have plenty of time today. Ill catch up in a bit.

Holy shit, we have till friday.

@daven: Those were the q's, and ill think about that post later.

unvote I need to rethink things

Hrmmmmmm very interesting.

[gabe]

now can you teach me poker after this??

i play poker kinda like werewolf, trying to sniff out the troublemaker

[rong]

Gabe, I don't get your post above quoting JKDS. What's your point there? Break it down for me.

[jyms]

He's saying wolves don't read a ton. They are always trying to catch up but never do. They don't dig back to old posts or quote often except as a ruse .

[gabe]

the first post he acted like he had time and was gonna post some content for us villagers to chew on, but as the heat has died off of him he feels less compelled to post

i think rilla made some good posts about this type of thing in a previous game. baddies have to think extra hard when choosing what to say when they know they are getting examined. villagers can just spew words.

[Hoopy]

Some other thoughts:

Once we find one witch, it gets a lot easier, right?

It gets easier because we can then look at who they attacked/defended/ignored and everyone's interaction with them.

Most important though is voting patterns, often the game is solved by them.

[jyms]

wow, it's like you said his name 3 times in the mirror and he appeared,

[jackvance]

I can go for JKDS too, he's on my list of wolves also. Earlier I had him tied with Jyms so I got hesitant but Jyms doesn't look all that wolfy atm.

[jackvance]

wow, it's like you said his name 3 times in the mirror and he appeared,

Getting bolded is like the bat-signal for a wolf huh.

[rong]

Jv, why hoopy over daven if they're your preferred two. Also what's your thoughts on each? I'm particularly keen to hear your opinions as I think you'll be a very likely night time target.

[jyms]

86 posts and almost 9 hours, 2 posts in the last two pages and he finally pops in minutes after he's bolded??

Lynch Hoopy

[jackvance]

Jv, why hoopy over daven if they're your preferred two. Also what's your thoughts on each? I'm particularly keen to hear your opinions as I think you'll be a very likely night time target.

No real preference, but Jyms brought up his suspicion of Hoopy, and also Daven said he'd be away for 18 hours so not gonna get much from that side so I picked Hoopy.

[Hoopy]

Going do a vote count then finally vote for someone.

86 posts and almost 9 hours, 2 posts in the last two pages and he finally pops in minutes after he's bolded??

I didn't even know I'd been bolded.

[Luco]

Interesting, do explain.

Not aimed at this page, just a general thought on the mechanics of the game.

[Hoopy]

JKDS - 1
Jyms - 1
Luco - 1
Hoopy - 2

Most suspicious person for me is pascal , I don't think JV's post about him saying stuff he'd never say as wolf clears him at all.

drown pascal

[rong]

Ha. Thus is turning into an interesting game. How the fuck are we so dispersed and wtf are the wolves doing?

[jyms]

JKDS - 1
Jyms - 1
Luco - 1
Hoopy - 2

Most suspicious person for me is pascal , I don't think JV's post about him saying stuff he'd never say as wolf clears him at all.

drown pascal

This can't be right? Luco took his bold off of me and I hav bolded you so who still has luco bolded? I'm not going through it but this can't be right can it?

[Luco]

It's pascal

[gabe]

hoopy votes pascal
pascal votes luco
jyms votes hoopy
jv votes hoopy
gabe votes jkds

pretty sure all other votes were rescinded, so the non voters are

jkds
rong
daven
luco

[Luco]

In terms of post count, are the witches likely to be dispersed?

[jackvance]

Ok I think Hoopy's gonna flip wolf. If that is true, what to make of his Pascal vote. It might actually be somewhat incriminating for Pascal if Hoopy's a wolf.

And I'm on the same page as rong thinking, wtf are the wolves doing. It's still consistent with my village division, if it's hoopy/daven/jkds (possibly exchange pascal for daven or jkds) then they're doing exactly nothing and all us vocal people having a comfy chat are villagers (which is usually the case when that happens btw!).

[gabe]

In terms of post count, are the witches likely to be dispersed?

maybe. im convincing myself the 3 witches are from [ jkds, pascal, hoopy, rong ]

[JKDS]

I dont have time for this thread atm. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are my busiest law school days, and I have another 9 hours of critical thinking and reading to do. I get a break to catch up on Thursday.

My top suspicions are
-Jyms
-Daven
-Gabe
-Hoopy

The only one I feel i need to address is gabe, and is mostly because im starting to really not buy his massive town tell at the start of this day. Hes fully aware arguing rules with mods is a town tell as well, so really all im seeing is the argument on me that isnt very well thought out. I need to reread the thread and do some vote count stuff, but i just cant get to that now.

[gabe]

although i guess it is funny how daven keeps detailing his off-forum exploits. like he knows he's misleading us (b/c hes not a villager) so gives us real facts that are actually irrelavant

[JKDS]

Ill add that im nowhere near as confident as i was, and probably will no longer be fingering if lynched.

[Luco]

Still thinking about my vote. My main concern with a hoopy lynch is that we gain very little info beyond the wagon due to his low interaction to date.

Following that logic, voting me jyms or jkds would be better. This is our last chance to make a wrong move.

Jv's comment about having three quiet witches is interesting though.

[jyms]

Your going on incomplete information though. 2 votes is not a lynch. We still have to see how things go with this.

[jackvance]

Still thinking about my vote. My main concern with a hoopy lynch is that we gain very little info beyond the wagon due to his low interaction to date.

Following that logic, voting me jyms or jkds would be better. This is our last chance to make a wrong move.

Jv's comment about having three quiet witches is interesting though.

True about the low info but he's someone I feel confident voting. Something about JKDS just sits wrong with me, logically it makes sense but I don't like it.

[Luco]

Your going on incomplete information though. 2 votes is not a lynch. We still have to see how things go with this.

True.

[rong]

My only concern with hoopy is we don't get much from it. I'd prefer either luco.it JKDS. I think luco is better as he probably gives us JKDS as I don't see him behaving this way without JKDS behind it.

So far I'm closest to voting that way.

[rong]

That said I still wanna think about the JKDS wagon earlier today (werewolf day). It's hard in my phone though. Can someone post the order of votes and rescinds from that wagon.

[Luco]

My strategy to counter your suspicions is to simply keep posting. Every post is information and if it can hang a witch it can clear a villager.

I don't have a hand up my ass. This is me.

[rong]

True about the low info but he's someone I feel confident voting. Something about JKDS just sits wrong with me, logically it makes sense but I don't like it.

would you feel better about lynching JKDS if luco shows wolf? I know I'm pushing this quite hard now but it makes so much sense, who in the world days "towning" like that without seeing it first, and we could do with lynch that gives us a clear plan, even if we deviate from it later its nice to have a plan to deviate from.