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Ok I hope I don't come across a condescending, fact is I'm hardly an expert. However, that range you've given villain is faaaaaar too wide, like ridiculously. You seriously need to work on range assigning, taking into account reads on villain, action, and position. This guy does not have Q2s for example. We can discount AK QQ+ due to him calling, he might have JJ and worse though.
When he calls flop bet, he's going to have Ax flush draws, Ax gutshots, KT, KQ, KJ, JQ, maybe T8s 79cc J9cc. No way is he ever calling 22, not if the read that he is TAG is accurate. Only the fishiest of fish call 22-77 to a flop bet here. Sets very probably raise vs an ep open, seeing as board is ridiculously draw heavy vs our range.
Here's what I would consider a realistic calling range for villain on the flop... let's first see our equity before the turn falls, and then after...
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
50,490 games 0.000 secs 10,098,000 games/sec
Board: Kd Tc 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.265% 58.85% 00.42% 29713 210.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 40.735% 40.32% 00.42% 20357 210.00 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, QJs, Jc9c, Tc8c, 9c7c, 7c6c, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo }
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We have 59% equity vs his calling range, this is clearly a +ev flop bet.
Now let's see what the ace does to our equity...
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,024 games 0.000 secs 404,800 games/sec
Board: Kd Tc 8c Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.501% 12.85% 01.66% 260 33.50 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 85.499% 83.84% 01.66% 1697 33.50 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, QJs, Jc9c, Tc8c, 9c7c, 7c6c, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo }
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Down to 14.5%. This turn absolutely crushes our hand, betting this turn is a massive, massive leak vs even a wide TAG range.
c/f is the only option.
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