Ugly Bubble spot ($27)

Villain is a solid reg. What else is important to notice, is that the shortstack on the bubble has been sitting out for a long while and it's unlikely he is going to return.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t530)
SB (t5740)
Hero (BB) (t2045)
UTG (t5185)

Hero's M: 2.92

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
UTG bets t5160 (All-In),

SNap call for me. Unlikely he is shoving pre with AA, KK or AK, so you are prob lookinjg at a lower pocker pair, or or an Ace, ie 2 outs or 3 outs. ANd if you double up here you have a much better chance of going on take first.

ICM says this is around EV -2% if the villian's range is 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo. Since this is a bubble situation, his shoving range must be wider. Call !

But ICM doesnt take into account that the shortstack will be all in with his next blind and is folding 100% of hands.

Then, we should predict the approximate stacks after the short stack is gone and rerun the ICM and "compare" it to the present case.

I ran this hand in SNG Wiz and provided that opp is shoving 10% of hands or wider (which I think it's safe to say a good player would be) then this is a call. I'm not really sure how to take into account the fact that the shortstack is sitting out. If we fold, Wiz says we will have 21.1% equity, which is at least what we'd get if we assumed we were a shoe-in for 3rd place.

In a game I would most likely call, we've got too much equity against his range to fold. Interestingly, I ran it with opp shoving 100% and the call range is 88+, AKs.

In the heat of the moment I decided to fold this, because I figured that I would get 3rd place money 100% of the time if I fold but I won't be guaranteed more than third if I call and win. What I didnt take into my calculations was that the pot gives the opponent the chip lead and he might give the sitting out shortstack a walk to keep the bubble alive, which is what he did. I still cashed but I felt kind of stupid think back at that fold, but that might be result-oriented thinking. So even if this fold would guarantee me 3rd place money it is still a call?

Originally Posted by losttrem

So even if this fold would guarantee me 3rd place money it is still a call?

I think so, because your equity if you fold is actually 21.1% compared to the 20% you'd get if you were 100% certain that you'd get 3rd place and no better. Even taking the ICM effect into account, QQ has just too much equity against opp's likely (wide) range to fold IMO.

TT/JJ would be a much tougher decision